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February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0234

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0703 AM CST TUE FEB 26 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN INDIANA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN

VALID 261303Z - 261700Z

SUMMARY...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN WITH RATES AOA 0.02 IN/HR WILL BE

POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN INDIANA.

DISCUSSION...SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR

BELT WRAPPING CYCLONICALLY AROUND UPPER LOW OVER SRN MO/NRN AR IS

SHIFTING NWD ACROSS CNTRL/NRN INDIANA THIS MORNING. AT THE

SURFACE...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 30S EXIST ACROSS THE AREA...WITH

DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR IN

PLACE...HEAVIER PRECIPITATION RATES SPREADING N ACROSS NRN INDIANA

WILL AID IN WET BULB COOLING...ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO FALL

TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING. TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE THE

SURFACE ARE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING...WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE

PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN OVER THE AREA DURING THE MORNING.

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should be another fun day for the dual pol products.

 

LOT 12z ...holding firm but we should see a slow backing off on totals soon

 

A WINTER STORM IS POISED TO IMPACT THE REGION TODAY. PRECIPITATION
IS ALREADY MARCHING NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS EARLY THIS MORNING
AS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE CHICAGO/ROCKFORD AREA TERMINALS LATE
THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WARM AIR WRAPPING NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MELT FALLING PRECIP EARLY
IN THE EVENT LEADING TO SLEET OR EVEN ALL RAIN FOR A WHILE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WARMER AIR WILL BE SOUTHEAST WITH COOLER AIR TO
NORTHWEST...SO GYY WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING PERIODS OF
ALL RAIN WHILE RFD HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING ALL SNOW...WITH
THE GAMBIT OF SNOW/RAIN/SLEET MIXING IN BETWEEN. MODERATELY STRONG
FORCING AT THE ONSET SHOULD HELP TO DYNAMICALLY COOL THE ATMOSPHERE
EVENTUALLY CAUSING A CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW. WITH THE STRONGEST
FORCING EXPECTED EARLY TO MID THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
QUICKLY DETERIORATE...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW REDUCING VSBY TO A
MILE OR LESS. FORCING LETS UP SOME MID AFTERNOON BUT THEN MODELS
SUGGEST AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY LEADING TO A SMALL CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MESOSCALE BANDING WHERE LOCALIZED
HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE. AREAS UNDER THESE BANDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO SEE OVER 6 INCHES OF SNOW...WHILE MOST AREAS SHOULD SEE 3 TO 6
INCHES THROUGH THIS EVENING...EXCEPT AT GYY WHERE MORE OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL AS RAIN.
 

post-163-0-66339500-1361885046_thumb.jpg

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temp has dropped from 34 to 31 over the past couple of hours at LAF. an interesting development... should help keep freezing rain around for a while.

 

Even have had a burst of sleet this morning...what storm wouldn't be complete without it? :arrowhead:  

 

Nice icey coating on the bushes/cars right now, even with marginal temps. Probably a good thing we're going above freezing at some point soon, what with these winds and all. 

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