February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 2

[Hoosier]

Mods are supposed to be above trolling.

Bottomed out at 34º at LAF?

To modify a line from Nixon...if I do it, it's not trolling.

We seem to have hit a wall. Dewpoint did creep down a tad.

[chase_stormz]

DET:

 

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.9    -1.8    1005      96     100    0.30     547     542   

WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.5    1001      97      98    0.44     540     539   

WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.8    -1.7    1000      99      95    0.18     536     536   

WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.8    -1.5    1000      94      68    0.08     536     536   

THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.5    -3.6    1002      98      94    0.07     536     534   

THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.8    1002      94      97    0.05     535     533 

 

DTW:

 

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.7    -1.6    1004      97      99    0.40     546     542    WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.2    1001      97      97    0.37     540     539    WED 12Z 27-FEB   1.1    -1.3     999      99      93    0.18     536     537    WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.8    -1.4    1000      94      73    0.06     536     536    THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.7    -3.6    1002      97      94    0.05     536     534    THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.7    1003      95      98    0.05     536     533 

 

Peoria, IL qpf please

[Chicago WX]

To modify a line from Nixon...if I do it, it's not trolling.

We seem to have hit a wall. Dewpoint did creep down a tad.

 

Slowly ticking down on my thermometer, now just a shade under 34º. But looks like we may not make it. Wouldn't be surprised if IND cancels the WWA.

[dmc76]

I wish Michigan was in CST. These late night EURO runs are killing me 

[Chicago WX]

I wish Michigan was in CST. These late night EURO runs are killing me 

 

Eastern time zone is the worst.

[Chicago Storm]

0z ECMWF QPF text list...

 

MSN:

WED 00Z 27-FEB  -1.1    -6.5    1008      83      95    0.07     543     537    
WED 06Z 27-FEB  -1.8    -6.0    1006      90      99    0.16     541     536    
WED 12Z 27-FEB  -2.1    -6.3    1006      88      97    0.13     540     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB  -1.3    -6.3    1008      87      95    0.06     540     534    
THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.8    -6.8    1010      88      96    0.07     542     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -1.0    -6.8    1013      88      93    0.03     544     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -1.6    -6.8    1016      83      97    0.01     546     533

MKE:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.3    -5.7    1006      94      97    0.43     543     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB  -0.1    -5.5    1003      94      96    0.38     540     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.0    -5.4    1003      94      97    0.17     539     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.5    -5.3    1005      90      95    0.06     539     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.0    -5.3    1008      91      88    0.05     540     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.8    1010      89      86    0.03     542     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.3    -6.8    1014      85      99    0.01     545     534

RAC:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.4    -5.6    1005      94      98    0.52     542     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.2    -5.2    1003      94      96    0.33     540     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.3    -5.2    1003      94      97    0.15     539     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.7    -5.2    1004      91      96    0.06     539     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.2    1007      92      92    0.05     540     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.4    -6.7    1010      89      85    0.03     542     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.1    -6.8    1013      85      97    0.01     544     534

CID:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB  -1.1     0.0    1008      78      73    0.01     547     541    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB  -0.1    -3.5    1007      80      86    0.04     544     538    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.0    -6.8    1007      88      99    0.24     541     536    
WED 06Z 27-FEB  -1.4    -6.2    1007      88      99    0.11     541     535    
WED 12Z 27-FEB  -1.9    -6.8    1008      88      97    0.07     540     534    
WED 18Z 27-FEB  -1.7    -7.2    1010      88      98    0.07     541     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.6    -7.2    1012      89      95    0.08     542     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.3    -6.6    1014      87      98    0.02     545     534

DVN:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.1    -3.8    1005      83      99    0.16     542     538    
WED 00Z 27-FEB  -0.4    -6.6    1005      89      97    0.44     540     536    
WED 06Z 27-FEB  -0.9    -6.4    1005      89      97    0.10     540     536    
WED 12Z 27-FEB  -1.6    -6.6    1006      89      97    0.04     539     534    
WED 18Z 27-FEB  -0.4    -7.0    1008      83      95    0.04     539     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.4    -7.5    1011      89      96    0.07     541     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -7.1    1013      89      95    0.02     544     534

STL:

TUE 06Z 26-FEB   2.3     1.7    1003      76      84    0.14     550     547    
TUE 12Z 26-FEB   1.3     0.2     996      95      61    0.45     538     542    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   4.9    -0.1     996      85      59    0.08     533     537    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   1.3    -2.1    1001      92      65    0.02     536     535    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.2    -5.8    1005      92      52    0.01     540     536    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.1    -7.2    1007      90      97    0.02     538     532    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   2.2    -7.6    1009      73      97    0.06     538     530    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.6    -8.3    1012      83      92    0.03     540     531    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.6    -8.7    1014      88      92    0.01     543     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.4    -7.7    1016      90      90    0.01     546     533

PIA:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   0.8     1.1    1003      60      95    0.02     546     543    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB  -0.2    -2.8    1001      90      97    0.58     540     539    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.3    -3.3    1001      92      68    0.09     538     537    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.3    -5.3    1002      93      64    0.03     538     536    
WED 12Z 27-FEB  -0.4    -6.1    1004      92      90    0.02     538     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.2    -6.9    1007      86      97    0.03     538     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -7.4    1010      90      96    0.05     539     532    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.4    -6.7    1012      90      89    0.02     542     533    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.5    -6.8    1015      88      87    0.01     546     534

RFD:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.2    -3.1    1006      76      91    0.04     545     540    
WED 00Z 27-FEB  -0.4    -5.9    1004      91      97    0.50     541     537    
WED 06Z 27-FEB  -0.3    -5.7    1003      91      96    0.16     539     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB  -1.0    -5.9    1004      92      95    0.07     539     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB  -0.5    -5.8    1006      88      95    0.05     539     534    
THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.8    -6.0    1009      90      95    0.05     540     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.6    -6.6    1011      90      90    0.03     543     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -2.2    -6.3    1015      88      93    0.01     545     534

DKB:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB  -0.5    -4.2    1006      84      99    0.13     545     540    
WED 00Z 27-FEB  -0.1    -5.4    1003      93      94    0.55     540     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.0    -5.1    1002      93      96    0.11     539     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB  -0.4    -5.5    1003      93      97    0.04     538     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.0    -5.5    1005      91      96    0.06     538     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -5.8    1008      91      95    0.05     539     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.5    -6.1    1010      90      89    0.03     542     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.8    -6.6    1014      88      88    0.01     545     534

DPA:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB  -0.1    -4.0    1006      82      99    0.14     545     541    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.1    -5.2    1002      94      95    0.57     540     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.3    -4.6    1001      95      97    0.12     538     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.1    -5.0    1002      95      97    0.05     538     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.6    -5.3    1004      92      97    0.07     538     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.6    1007      92      96    0.06     539     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -6.1    1010      91      88    0.03     542     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.1    -6.9    1013      88      83    0.02     545     534

UGN:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   1.0    -0.9    1007      72     100    0.01     547     542    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.3    -5.6    1004      93      98    0.64     541     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.4    -4.9    1002      95      97    0.24     539     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.3    -5.1    1002      95      98    0.11     538     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.9    -5.3    1004      92      97    0.07     538     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.3    1007      92      96    0.06     539     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.6    1010      91      84    0.03     542     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.8    1013      86      91    0.02     544     534

ORD:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.4    -3.8    1006      80     100    0.10     546     541    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.3    -5.1    1002      95      96    0.61     540     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.5    -4.2    1001      97      97    0.12     538     538    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.4    -4.7    1002      96      97    0.06     538     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.9    -5.2    1004      93      97    0.08     538     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.5    -5.5    1007      93      97    0.07     539     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.3    1009      92      86    0.04     541     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.3    -6.9    1013      88      79    0.02     544     534

MDW:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.3    -2.9    1005      85      99    0.18     545     541    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.4    -4.1    1002      96      94    0.51     540     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -3.2    1000      97      97    0.11     538     538    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.5    -4.0    1001      97      96    0.05     538     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.9    -4.9    1003      95      97    0.07     538     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.6    -5.5    1006      95      97    0.08     538     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.9    1009      93      86    0.04     541     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.5    -6.9    1012      90      77    0.02     544     534

DEC:

TUE 06Z 26-FEB   2.3     3.5    1009      60      82    0.01     553     545    
TUE 12Z 26-FEB   0.2     2.3    1001      89      99    0.24     546     545    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   2.4     1.3     998      90      59    0.28     538     540    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   1.3    -0.5     998      97      85    0.06     535     537    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.5    -2.6    1001      97      66    0.02     538     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.1    -5.9    1004      96      68    0.02     538     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.4    -6.9    1007      87      97    0.04     538     532    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.1    -7.8    1009      88      96    0.03     539     531    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.5    -7.4    1011      91      95    0.02     541     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -6.7    1014      90      92    0.01     545     534    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.4    -7.3    1018      76      86    0.01     549     535

VPZ:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.2    -1.4    1003      88      97    0.28     545     543    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.9    1000      95     100    0.34     539     539    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.1     999      97      49    0.08     537     538    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.3    -2.2    1000      98      66    0.02     537     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.0    -3.6    1002      96      91    0.03     537     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.1    1005      99      97    0.08     538     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.4    -5.8    1007      97      85    0.04     540     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.3    -6.9    1011      92      80    0.01     543     534    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   0.9    -6.1    1015      85      88    0.01     547     534    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -1.2    -5.4    1019      85      79    0.01     548     533

LAF:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   0.3     3.8    1005      68     100    0.03     551     546    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   1.2     0.5    1000      95      98    0.49     543     543    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   2.2     0.6     997      97      87    0.21     537     539    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   1.3    -0.6     998      99      79    0.07     535     536    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.3    -3.1    1001      98      90    0.02     537     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.0    -5.2    1004      95      97    0.03     537     534    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.3    1007      95      97    0.08     537     532    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.1    -5.6    1008      96      96    0.04     539     533    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.2    1011      94      92    0.02     543     534    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.8    -6.5    1015      84      76    0.01     547     535    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -0.6    -6.0    1019      86      88    0.01     549     534 

IND:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   0.7     5.0    1004      84      93    0.16     552     549    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   3.4     2.3     999      95      99    0.49     542     544    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   5.7     0.7     997      96      77    0.14     536     538    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   3.6    -1.6     999      97      93    0.06     533     535    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.8    -2.9    1002      97      88    0.05     537     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.9    -5.9    1005      86      87    0.02     537     534    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.7    -6.8    1007      87      97    0.04     537     531    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.1    -6.4    1008      90      96    0.02     538     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.3    -6.4    1010      94      96    0.02     542     534    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   3.2    -7.0    1014      71      79    0.01     547     535    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR   1.0    -6.8    1017      86      86    0.02     549     535

OKK:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   0.1     3.9    1008      63      99    0.01     552     546    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   1.0     0.5    1001      96      96    0.46     545     544    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   2.4     1.2     998      97      60    0.19     538     540    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   3.3    -0.3     997      98      81    0.04     535     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.5    -1.3    1000      99      74    0.02     536     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.3    -4.5    1003      93      86    0.03     537     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.8    1005      96      98    0.08     537     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -5.3    1006      98      96    0.06     538     533    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.1    -6.4    1010      93      91    0.02     542     534    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.2    -6.9    1013      80      85    0.01     546     535    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR   0.3    -7.0    1017      90      86    0.02     548     534

FWA:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.4     0.4    1004      94      97    0.35     548     545    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   1.3     1.2     999      97      91    0.31     540     541    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   1.4     0.5     997      99      96    0.08     536     538    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   1.9    -0.4     999      98      70    0.05     535     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.6    -2.4    1002      93      87    0.03     537     535    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.6    -4.7    1004      99      98    0.08     537     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.5    -5.4    1005      97      97    0.06     537     533    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.0    -6.3    1009      90      88    0.02     541     534    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.5    -7.1    1012      76      89    0.02     545     535    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR   1.3    -7.4    1016      82      81    0.01     547     534

MKG:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.6    -3.9    1005      87      99    0.25     545     540    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.7    -4.2    1002      90      98    0.27     540     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.8    -3.7    1002      91      96    0.07     538     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   2.4    -3.5    1003      83      98    0.02     538     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   1.4    -4.7    1005      88      97    0.03     539     535    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.4    -6.4    1008      89      96    0.04     541     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.3    -6.3    1011      88      98    0.01     543     534

GRR:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.7    -3.9    1004      91      99    0.31     545     541    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -3.4    1001      94      98    0.31     540     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.6    -2.7    1001      95      94    0.07     537     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   2.0    -3.6    1002      86      97    0.02     538     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.7    -4.9    1005      92      97    0.03     538     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -6.7    1007      91      96    0.05     540     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.1    -7.0    1010      89      97    0.02     542     534    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.4    -7.5    1013      71      88    0.01     545     534

BTL:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   2.1     1.7    1007      63      99    0.01     550     545    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.7    -2.8    1003      92      99    0.43     543     541    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.6    1000      95      97    0.25     539     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.5    -1.9    1000      97      98    0.11     536     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.5    -3.1    1001      91      95    0.07     537     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.5    -4.7    1004      96      98    0.05     537     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.4    -6.3    1006      93      94    0.06     539     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -7.1    1009      91      97    0.02     541     534    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.3    -7.2    1013      72      87    0.02     544     534    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR   0.3    -8.5    1017      81      66    0.01     547     533

PTK:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.9    -2.6    1006      93      99    0.24     547     542    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.5    -2.1    1002      97      97    0.47     541     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.5    -2.2    1000      98      98    0.12     536     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.7    -2.0    1001      91      75    0.08     537     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.5    -4.1    1002      96      93    0.05     536     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -6.0    1003      94      97    0.04     536     534    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.5    -6.5    1006      92      98    0.03     538     533    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.2    -7.5    1010      78      96    0.01     542     533    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -2.2    -8.8    1016      81      79    0.01     544     531

DTW:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.7    -1.6    1004      97      99    0.40     546     542    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.2    1001      97      97    0.37     540     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   1.1    -1.3     999      99      93    0.18     536     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.8    -1.4    1000      94      73    0.06     536     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.7    -3.6    1002      97      94    0.05     536     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.7    1003      95      98    0.05     536     533    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.2    -6.2    1006      90      98    0.03     537     533    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.0    -7.2    1010      77      96    0.01     542     534

DET:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.9    -1.8    1005      96     100    0.30     547     542    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.5    1001      97      98    0.44     540     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.8    -1.7    1000      99      95    0.18     536     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   1.8    -1.5    1000      94      68    0.08     536     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.5    -3.6    1002      98      94    0.07     536     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.8    1002      94      97    0.05     535     533    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.0    -6.1    1006      90      98    0.03     537     532    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.3    -7.3    1009      76      98    0.01     541     534    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -1.1    -9.0    1015      81      76    0.01     544     532

TOL:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.3     3.7    1007      82      99    0.08     552     546    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.8    -0.3    1002      99     100    0.50     544     542    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   1.4    -0.1     998      97      97    0.28     538     539    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   2.1    -0.7     999      97      92    0.16     535     536    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   2.2    -1.2    1001      94      89    0.04     536     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.8    -4.1    1002      98      97    0.05     536     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.5    -5.3    1003      96      97    0.06     536     533    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.1    -6.1    1007      90      96    0.03     538     533    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.3    -7.0    1010      77      95    0.02     542     534    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -0.1    -8.5    1016      78      80    0.01     545     533

DAY:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   1.4     5.9    1008      59      95    0.01     555     548    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   3.0     2.0    1002      93      99    0.34     549     547    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   6.3     2.2     998      96     100    0.28     540     542    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   4.2    -1.4     999      94      82    0.08     534     535    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   2.1    -3.5    1001      97      96    0.05     534     532    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   2.2    -5.1    1004      86      87    0.04     537     534    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   1.0    -6.2    1006      92      97    0.05     536     531    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.2    -6.2    1006      88      96    0.03     536     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.3    -6.2    1007      92      97    0.04     539     533    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   2.6    -6.9    1011      72      76    0.02     544     535    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR   1.8    -6.6    1015      79      78    0.01     547     535

HAO:

TUE 12Z 26-FEB   2.0     6.4    1007      72      94    0.07     555     549    
TUE 18Z 26-FEB   4.7     2.6    1000      95      96    0.41     547     547    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   7.3     1.2     997      97      97    0.20     538     540    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   4.4    -2.4    1000      94      98    0.04     533     533    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   2.4    -4.1    1002      97      97    0.06     535     533    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   3.0    -5.6    1005      79      88    0.03     538     534    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   1.5    -6.3    1007      89      98    0.03     536     531    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.5    -6.7    1007      83      96    0.01     537     531    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.5    -6.1    1008      89      98    0.02     540     533    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   3.8    -6.8    1012      68      85    0.02     544     535    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR   2.5    -6.3    1015      76      80    0.02     547     535

CMH:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   3.5     5.5    1003      89      85    0.19     553     550    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   5.4     1.1     999      94      97    0.28     543     543    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   5.7    -0.6     999      93      68    0.13     537     537    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   3.2    -2.8    1002      94      99    0.06     533     531    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   3.1    -4.7    1004      85      98    0.05     536     533    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   1.4    -5.8    1005      94      98    0.06     535     531    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.6    -6.3    1005      90      97    0.03     535     531    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.8    -6.2    1006      93      98    0.05     537     532    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   3.1    -6.8    1009      71      75    0.04     541     534    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR   1.9    -6.5    1014      81      77    0.02     545     534

CLE:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   3.4     5.6    1008      72      99    0.03     555     548    
WED 00Z 27-FEB   1.4     0.0    1004      94      98    0.34     548     544    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   3.0    -0.2    1000      92      96    0.06     540     540    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   3.5    -1.3    1000      94      79    0.17     535     535    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   5.6    -2.8    1001      74      84    0.03     535     534    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   2.3    -4.4    1002      90      97    0.04     535     533    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.6    -5.0    1001      98      98    0.10     533     532    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.6    -6.0    1004      95      95    0.13     533     530    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   0.9    -6.4    1008      86      93    0.03     538     532    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -0.8    -7.2    1013      88      86    0.03     542     532

YKF:

WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.9    -3.1    1012      77     100    0.01     553     543    
WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.3    -1.8    1008      96     100    0.58     546     540    
WED 12Z 27-FEB  -0.5    -3.8    1005      96      92    0.34     541     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.3    -4.8    1003      91      87    0.08     538     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.0    -5.7    1003      96      99    0.09     536     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.3    -5.5    1001      92      98    0.11     532     531    
THU 12Z 28-FEB  -0.3    -5.6    1002      89      87    0.03     533     531    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.6    -6.9    1006      74      90    0.02     536     531    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR  -0.5    -7.3    1011      84      95    0.01     539     530

YYZ:

WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.6    -1.3    1010      98     100    0.53     548     540    
WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.2    -3.7    1006      95      99    0.56     542     537    
WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.7    -4.6    1003      94      86    0.22     539     536    
THU 00Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.3    1003      97      97    0.13     536     534    
THU 06Z 28-FEB   0.3    -5.5    1000      93      92    0.14     531     531    
THU 12Z 28-FEB   0.4    -5.4    1002      90      82    0.06     532     531    
THU 18Z 28-FEB   1.8    -6.8    1005      74      92    0.04     534     530    
FRI 00Z 01-MAR   1.1    -7.5    1010      79      91    0.01     537     529

[Hoosier]

Slowly ticking down on my thermometer, now just a shade under 34º. But looks like we may not make it. Wouldn't be surprised if IND cancels the WWA.

I think it could be one of those things that since the advisory is already in place that they just leave it. It's still possible that we get a little glaze. We have a little but not much room to play with in terms of wetbulbing and this will be starting around the time that people will be on the roads.

[dmc76]

Huge positive here is that temps are dropping fast... Low to mid 20's across the board

[Chargers09]

Patience.

?

[Chicago WX]

Damn, MKE and YYZ FTW. Though 2m temps for Toronto are a little meh.

[RCNYILWX]

HPC's 28 member ensemble snowfall prediction ticked back up for >=4" in northeast Illinois compared to last run.

 

And 6":

 

 

 

21 NCEP Short-Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) members

1 NCEP North American Mesoscale (NAM) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run
1 NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) 12Z (day) or 00Z (night) operational run
1 European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) latest operational run
1 Canadian Model (CMC) latest operational run
1 ECMWF latest ensemble mean
1 NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) latest ensemble mean (6-h SLRs)
1 GEFS latest ensemble mean (24-h mean SLR)

___ 

28 Total members

[Thundersnow12]

1.5" at FYG, west of STL with temps 35/36.

[Chicago WX]

I think it could be one of those things that since the advisory is already in place that they just leave it. It's still possible that we get a little glaze. We have a little but not much room to play with in terms of wetbulbing and this will be starting around the time that people will be on the roads.

 

We'll see. 

 

I like the Euro having a temp of 32.5º at LAF later this morning. So perfect.

[Geos]

EURO got a bit wetter here. 1.18" total. Up about 0.1".

MKE and RAC right up there over 1.1".

 

Main event:

 

MKE: 0.98"

RAC: 1.00"

UGN: 1.00"

 

Thanks for the numbers Chicago Storm!

[RCNYILWX]

Damn, MKE and YYZ FTW. Though 2m temps for Toronto are a little meh.

Back to a Winter Storm Warning for southeast Wisconsin after canceling the watch?

[mimillman]

Regardless of what happens, I'm excited to see what Detroit and LOT end up doing with the watch. Each passing hour adds to the saga of this forecast.

[Chargers09]

Regardless of what happens, I'm excited to see what Detroit and LOT end up doing with the watch. Each passing hour adds to the saga of this forecast.

I'd say DTW is gonna easily go pink, atleast for it's middle 3 counties. LOT is a toss up. 

[Hoosier]

RAP is an atrocity for Chicago...it looks like rain through 21z or so. Wouldn't get too worried about it yet though.

[hawkeye_wx]

I'm not too excited about snow amounts around here.  Models have bumped us back to ~0.50" qpf, but it's mostly long-duration light snow with late February sun and iffy surface temp holding down accumulation.  I'll go with 2 inches for CR, maybe 3.

[RCNYILWX]

UGN:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.0 -0.9 1007 72 100 0.01 547 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.6 1004 93 98 0.64 541 538WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -4.9 1002 95 97 0.24 539 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.1 1002 95 98 0.11 538 537 

ORD:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.4 -3.8 1006 80 100 0.10 546 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.1 1002 95 96 0.61 540 538WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.5 -4.2 1001 97 97 0.12 538 538 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.4 -4.7 1002 96 97 0.06 538 537

You can see the dynamic cooling at work at 18z on the Euro where ORD is cooler at the surface and aloft than UGN. Dynamic cooling overcame the very marginal thermal profiles on 2/7 and I think it's going to do the trick tomorrow. All the models are showing it in varying degrees, a product of the ascent generated by the big height falls with the approach of the upper low (10-13 DAM/12-hr over northern IL by late afternoon early evening). We'll see what happens.

[Thundersnow12]

UGN:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.0 -0.9 1007 72 100 0.01 547 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.6 1004 93 98 0.64 541 538WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -4.9 1002 95 97 0.24 539 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.1 1002 95 98 0.11 538 537 

ORD:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.4 -3.8 1006 80 100 0.10 546 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.1 1002 95 96 0.61 540 538WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.5 -4.2 1001 97 97 0.12 538 538 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.4 -4.7 1002 96 97 0.06 538 537

You can see the dynamic cooling at work at 18z on the Euro where ORD is cooler at the surface and aloft than UGN. Dynamic cooling overcame the very marginal thermal profiles on 2/7 and I think it's going to do the trick tomorrow. All the models are showing it in varying degrees, a product of the ascent generated by the big height falls with the approach of the upper low (10-13 DAM/12-hr over northern IL by late afternoon early evening). We'll see what happens.

 

You going to make a call amounts wise?

 

I'll say 4.8" at my place.

[Geos]

UGN:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 1.0 -0.9 1007 72 100 0.01 547 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.6 1004 93 98 0.64 541 538WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -4.9 1002 95 97 0.24 539 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.1 1002 95 98 0.11 538 537 

ORD:

TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.4 -3.8 1006 80 100 0.10 546 541 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.1 1002 95 96 0.61 540 538WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.5 -4.2 1001 97 97 0.12 538 538 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.4 -4.7 1002 96 97 0.06 538 537

You can see the dynamic cooling at work at 18z on the Euro where ORD is cooler at the surface and aloft than UGN. Dynamic cooling overcame the very marginal thermal profiles on 2/7 and I think it's going to do the trick tomorrow. All the models are showing it in varying degrees, a product of the ascent generated by the big height falls with the approach of the upper low (10-13 DAM/12-hr over northern IL by late afternoon early evening). We'll see what happens.

 

I see then by 0z it has cooled considerably at 850mb. I remember the morning of 2/7 my driveway was all icy with freezing drizzle falling until 10am, then it went straight to snow with no sleet or anything in between.

 

Temperature has been bouncing around here from 31°-34°, which correlates nicely to the thicker and thinner clouds at any given time.

 

Edit: Heard a few schools in Lake Co. are letting out early. I think about 2pm or so.

[Hoosier]

Quick and dirty check of the 7z obs suggests ~992 mb surface low in the northeast corner of AR just south of the bootheel.

[wisconsinwx]

Back to a Winter Storm Warning for southeast Wisconsin after canceling the watch?

 

High end advisory most likely due to crappy ratios, but if the QPF is fully realized, perhaps?

[Harry]

Quick and dirty check of the 7z obs suggests ~992 mb surface low in the northeast corner of AR just south of the bootheel.

 

That thing is gonna wonder all around the 500mb low. Thus the erratic movement so far from easterly to almost due north etc. With most stronger/better developed systems at 500mb that close off the surface low tends to end up to the west/nw of the 500mb low vs ne or east of it. Why with a system like this it is important to follow this puppy along with the surface low.

 

Or this even..

[Thundersnow12]

this tops the jacked RPM's of the world

 

[RCNYILWX]

You going to make a call amounts wise?

 

I'll say 4.8" at my place.

I like the overall consistency of the Euro but one thing that concerns me is the 00z GFS Cobb output for ORD literally has no snow. On the other hand, the GFS has been bouncing around run to run and seems a bit underdone with the QPF given the strength of the upper system (despite occlusion of the SLP).  

 

Sure, I'll make a call for ORD.

 

I took a rough avg of the QPF (not counting the WRF-NMM you just showed lol) for ORD (double weighting Euro) from the guidance tonight (0.73"), shaved off 10% for a possible initial mix, and went with an average 7:1 ratio, which gives 4.6" of snow.

 

Boom or bust potential with this system is still really high. If we see something like 2/7 with intense precip/dynamic cooling and even thundersnow, I could see decent coverage of 6"+ amounts in the metro. On the other hand, if the occlusion really causes the WAA snows to fall apart, we'll be in trouble with the marginal thermal profiles.

[Harry]

00z euro ensemble mean almost identical to 12z but slightly more widespread 1inch + QPF in southern MI and the 1+ line on the north end runs from about Kalamazoo towards Charlotte and then runs along where the 3rd/4th row of counties meet ( MI ) to just south of Port Huron. From Kalamazoo it goes sse to just east of FT. Wayne and then down along IN/OH line and covers much of Ohio except ne and sw. Also a blob of 1inch + over Chicago itself. The .75+ line has inched up to the north side of MKE ( really picking up on the lake enhancement ) and then over to Grand Haven over to just north of Bay City.. Toronto area in the 1.25+

[RCNYILWX]

00z euro ensemble mean almost identical to 12z but slightly more widespread 1inch + QPF in southern MI and the 1+ line on the north end runs from about Kalamazoo towards Charlotte and then runs along where the 3rd/4th row of counties meet ( MI ) to just south of Port Huron. From Kalamazoo it goes sse to just east of FT. Wayne and then down along IN/OH line and covers much of Ohio except ne and sw. Also a blob of 1inch + over Chicago itself. The .75+ line has inched up to the north side of MKE ( really picking up on the lake enhancement ) and then over to Grand Haven over to just north of Bay City.. Toronto area in the 1.25+

When is that timeframe for the 1"+ for Chicago?

[Harry]

When is that timeframe for the 1"+ for Chicago?

 

Guess i should clarify on this for you guys. By 12z wed Chicago is at around .75 and by Friday at 1 inch or so. Don't have text details. Keeps snowing after that as well as that 1 inch+ expands down towards the IN line and then into Lake county.