February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 2

[wisconsinwx]

Yeah, could be. Hard to tell and I'm over analyzing like usual...

 

I'm reading that although there are pressure falls in SC Missouri and W Tennessee, the greatest are actually in NE Arkansas, which would pretty much be on track with guidance.

[Hoosier]

Final calls. Gonna not go too crazy due to sketchy thermals.

Alek: 5.0"

Andy: 3.5"

blackrock: 4.0"

BowMe and the MKE crew: 8.0"

Brewers: 7.8"

Chargers09: 5.5"

CID peeps: 4.0"

cyclone: 5.9"

daddylonglegs: 2.0"

Geos: 7.1"

The Harrys: 6.8"

hm8: 5.6"

IWXwx: 2.0"

michsnowfreak: 4.2"

Thundersnow12 and other suburb people: broad brush 6.0"

snowstormcanuck: 8.5"

Thunder Road: 2.9"

Turtle: 3.0"

wisconsinwx: 0.6"

My apologies if I missed anyone. And really, treat it as pure fun...nothing more.

You missed us.

[wisconsinwx]

Final calls. Gonna not go too crazy due to sketchy thermals.

 

Alek: 5.0"

Andy: 3.5"

blackrock: 4.0"

BowMe and the MKE crew: 8.0"

Brewers: 7.8"

Chargers09: 5.5"

CID peeps: 4.0"

cyclone: 5.9"

daddylonglegs: 2.0"

Geos: 7.1"

The Harrys: 6.8"

hm8: 5.6"

IWXwx: 2.0"

michsnowfreak: 4.2"

Thundersnow12 and other suburb people: broad brush 6.0"

snowstormcanuck: 8.5"

Thunder Road: 2.9"

Turtle: 3.0"

wisconsinwx: 0.6"

 

My apologies if I missed anyone. And really, treat it as pure fun...nothing more.

 

Of precip right haha?  Would love if it verified right on the nose.

[cyclone77]

Final calls. Gonna not go too crazy due to sketchy thermals.

 

Alek: 5.0"

Andy: 3.5"

blackrock: 4.0"

BowMe and the MKE crew: 8.0"

Brewers: 7.8"

Chargers09: 5.5"

CID peeps: 4.0"

cyclone: 5.9"

daddylonglegs: 2.0"

Geos: 7.1"

The Harrys: 6.8"

hm8: 5.6"

IWXwx: 2.0"

michsnowfreak: 4.2"

Thundersnow12 and other suburb people: broad brush 6.0"

snowstormcanuck: 8.5"

Thunder Road: 2.9"

Turtle: 3.0"

wisconsinwx: 0.6"

 

My apologies if I missed anyone. And really, treat it as pure fun...nothing more.

 lol @ the harrys. 

 

Look pretty good to me.  Models were primarily garbage for here points northwest up until the new 00z suite.  Cautiously upping my 1-3" call to 3-5" I guess. 

[Chicago WX]

You missed us.

 

 

33º and 1.14" storm total rain.

 

And 84,000 wrap around flakes that amount to zero.

[Thundersnow12]

You missed us.

 

classic

[mimillman]

Final calls. Gonna not go too crazy due to sketchy thermals.

 

Alek: 5.0"

Andy: 3.5"

blackrock: 4.0"

BowMe and the MKE crew: 8.0"

Brewers: 7.8"

Chargers09: 5.5"

CID peeps: 4.0"

cyclone: 5.9"

daddylonglegs: 2.0"

Geos: 7.1"

The Harrys: 6.8"

hm8: 5.6"

IWXwx: 2.0"

michsnowfreak: 4.2"

Thundersnow12 and other suburb people: broad brush 6.0"

snowstormcanuck: 8.5"

Thunder Road: 2.9"

Turtle: 3.0"

wisconsinwx: 0.6"

 

My apologies if I missed anyone. And really, treat it as pure fun...nothing more.

Riding the northwest train?

[chase_stormz]

Final calls. Gonna not go too crazy due to sketchy thermals.

 

Alek: 5.0"

Andy: 3.5"

blackrock: 4.0"

BowMe and the MKE crew: 8.0"

Brewers: 7.8"

Chargers09: 5.5"

CID peeps: 4.0"

cyclone: 5.9"

daddylonglegs: 2.0"

Geos: 7.1"

The Harrys: 6.8"

hm8: 5.6"

IWXwx: 2.0"

michsnowfreak: 4.2"

Thundersnow12 and other suburb people: broad brush 6.0"

snowstormcanuck: 8.5"

Thunder Road: 2.9"

Turtle: 3.0"

wisconsinwx: 0.6"

 

My apologies if I missed anyone. And really, treat it as pure fun...nothing more.

 

You missed me too..    PIA IL

[Chicago WX]

Of precip right haha?  Would love if it verified right on the nose.

 

I'm rolling the dice. 

 

[Chicago WX]

You missed me too..    PIA IL

 

6.3"

[chase_stormz]

6.3"

thanks lol

[Geos]

21z SREF snowfall means

 

DTW: 8.79"

GRR: 5.81"

BTL: 6.84"

ORD: 9.16"

UGN: 8.66"

DKB: 6.07"

MKE: 7.07"

MSN: 2.53"

RFD: 4.38"

DVN: 5.04"

DBQ: 2.45"

CID: 2.29"

MKG: 3.73"

LAN: 7.88"

VPZ: 7.67"

LAF: 4.50"

FWA: 5.18"

[Chicago WX]

Riding the northwest train?

 

Wagons north.

 

But expanding the snow northwest really. Thoughts for Chicagoland remain the same as earlier.

[Hoosier]

Wonder if LOT might need to hit the ice threat a little harder in their southern zones/NW IN. Could get a little dicey there especially if precip comes in any earlier and the warm layer aloft is slower to fade.

[YHM Supercell]

Was just reading WFO Torontos forecast discussion. They are expecting 7:1 ratio type snows. It was also stated that snowfall warnings may be issued Tuesday .

[harrisale]

21z SREF snowfall means

 

YYZ: 16.49"    Outrageous haha. This is until 12Z on March 1st of course (as are the above numbers). Would be amazing to see.

[Chicago WX]

21z SREF snowfall means

LAF: 4.50"

 

Toss this crap in the garbage. Seriously.

[TugHillMatt]

Final calls. Gonna not go too crazy due to sketchy thermals.

 

Alek: 5.0"

Andy: 3.5"

blackrock: 4.0"

BowMe and the MKE crew: 8.0"

Brewers: 7.8"

Chargers09: 5.5"

CID peeps: 4.0"

cyclone: 5.9"

daddylonglegs: 2.0"

Geos: 7.1"

The Harrys: 6.8"

hm8: 5.6"

IWXwx: 2.0"

michsnowfreak: 4.2"

Thundersnow12 and other suburb people: broad brush 6.0"

snowstormcanuck: 8.5"

Thunder Road: 2.9"

Turtle: 3.0"

vortex: 2.6"

wisconsinwx: 0.6"

 

My apologies if I missed anyone. And really, treat it as pure fun...nothing more.

Thanks for including me. I agree with your call. I am thinking 3 to 6 inches for this area.

[wisconsinwx]

These slight model shifts not changing MKX's thinking for the moment.  The Euro will be more than pivotal in my thinking and probably theirs tonight.

[Chicago WX]

0z UK 72 hour total QPF

 

Conversion, with rounding.

7.5-10mm=0.30-0.40"

10-15mm=0.40-0.60"

15-20mm=0.60-0.80"

20-25mm=0.80-1.00"

25-30mm=1.00-1.20"

30-40mm=1.20-1.60"

 

[hm8]

Well the RAP has a rainstorm lol

[BowMeHunter]

These slight model shifts not changing MKX's thinking for the moment.  The Euro will be more than pivotal in my thinking and probably theirs tonight.

 

we always get our best when they are behind the ball.

[Chargers09]

0z UK 72 hour total QPF

 

Conversion, with rounding.

7.5-10mm=0.30-0.40"

10-15mm=0.40-0.60"

15-20mm=0.60-0.80"

20-25mm=0.80-1.00"

25-30mm=1.00-1.20"

30-40mm=1.20-1.60"

 

2:26 0z UK QPF 72.gif

Wow. That's quite a thump of precip. 

[Chicago WX]

Wonder if LOT might need to hit the ice threat a little harder in their southern zones/NW IN. Could get a little dicey there especially if precip comes in any earlier and the warm layer aloft is slower to fade.

 

Not in direct response to the post, but rather to the poster...0z NAM raw 2m temps running about 4 degrees too cold for LAF so far.  

[mimillman]

Puddles freezing over here, although we've been sitting at 36 for a while.

[Geos]

Toss this crap in the garbage. Seriously.

 

Thought that would get a reaction out of you! That would be a miracle if it did happen.

Thanks for including me in your numbers.

[Hoosier]

Not in direct response to the post, but rather to the poster...0z NAM raw 2m temps running about 4 degrees too cold for LAF so far.

Yeah I noticed that. Still several hours until precip onset but there is not a large T/Td spread. Really wouldn't be surprised at anything at the start...plain rain, rain/sleet/zr, rain/sleet, etc. It's all possible.

[Chicago WX]

Less than impressed with the new GGEM, but it agrees with the move northwest...maybe even the farthest northwest of any model (CMI-ish at 24-27 hours). BUT, QPF decreases rapidly thereafter, for the wintry side to the north and west. I guess it rains itself out over central IL/IN.

[mimillman]

Less than impressed with the new GGEM, but it agrees with the move northwest...maybe even the farthest northwest of any model (CMI-ish at 24-27 hours). BUT, QPF decreases rapidly thereafter, for the wintry side to the north and west. I guess it rains itself out over central IL/IN.

still gets a fair amount to Geos doesn't it?

[Chicago WX]

still gets a fair amount to Geos doesn't it?

 

lol

 

All is relatively equal for NE IL.