snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 How you going to hurt his weenie heart? haha The RGEM looked golden, lets hope this trend stays consistent. Well nothing I've seen with the 0z suite so far is making me want to go more bullish. Still in a wait and see mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That is crazy that you have never witnessed TSSN considering I have seen it personally on... Feb 22, 2003 Oct 12, 2006 Mar 4, 2008 Dec 19, 2008 Feb 1, 2011 Feb 20, 2011 Mar 3, 2012 All of the above were here except Mar 3, 2012 was in Grayling. The top 3 for most Cantore-esque TSSN were Mar 4, 2008, Feb 20, 2011, & Mar 3, 2012. Oh trust me lol I know how crazy it is. Given you can cut off half that list since I didn't really start following Wx until 2008, but since then I've just been unlucky... always in some loud indoor venue or just straight not heard it wherever I was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Only 17mph here? We can't do anything right in the LAF. You're in high winds up until that time. Saw gusts pushing 45mph down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Well nothing I've seen with the 0z suite so far is making me want to go more bullish. Still in a wait and see mode. Yeah i aint going for a solid conclusion till tomorrow's 12z/18z runs and actually confident about it till tomorrow's 0z runs haha. A few tenth's of a degree could make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 MSN can't be denied. Not this year, not ever. I'm not ready to buy in just yet. Slightest shift is going to make all the difference for those us on the NW fringe of this thing. Expecting 2-3" IMBY and will be elated with anything above that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 doesnt appear that GFS will play Looks northwest to me. Sitting on top LAF at 30 hours. Trend is clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I swear my point and click has switched between 4-9" and 5-10" like 8 times today...some really nit-picking going on at dtx i guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 You're in high winds up until that time. Saw gusts pushing 45mph down your way. Just joking Geos. I'm sure that was at the point where the low was moving overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That's the old 0Z run of the hi-res NAM. notice the end date compared to the latest 18Z. New 0Z map should be out soon. Storm isn't even finished yet for Ontario on the map above. Pretty reasonable run for SEMI at least, really And even with the bogus mixing the Toronto lakeshore still manages 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Oh trust me lol I know how unlucky it is. Given you can cut off half that list since I didn't really start following Wx until 2008, but since then I've either always been in some loud indoor venue or just straight not heard it wherever I was. To recap my top 3.... Mar 4, 2008: Several flashes of lightning, the thunder was so loud it rattled/vibrated things on the shelf. No kidding. Storm total imby 10.3", a downriver special (much of the area was 4-7") Feb 20, 2011: We had a surprise 75th bday pty for my grandpa at this local restaurant overlooking a nice golfcourse. As night fell, the blinding snowstorm over the otherwise dark course was spooky then all of a sudden a massive lightning strike illuminated the course in pink and everyone in the room gasped, this was quickly followed by a massive boom. Storm total 10.2". Mar 3, 2012: I was outside my motel room in Grayling talking to a friend when the lightning/thunder hit. Thunder wasnt as loud as the above 2 but lightning just as vivid. Est storm total 12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Canuck, TWN is upping their snowfall forecast. Now calling for 4-6" in the tuesday overnight period alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Haha, Anthony's skytracker model shows 40cm or 16" for Toronto haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks northwest to me. Sitting on top LAF at 30 hours. Trend is clear. Yeah, a bump stronger from last run. Maybe he meant something else like qpf amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Here ya go Chicago wx - your RPM fix. Just heard early school closings for around here tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That's the old 0Z run of the hi-res NAM. notice the end date compared to the latest 18Z. New 0Z map should be out soon. Storm isn't even finished yet for Ontario on the map above. That's the right map. End of the 0z run through 60 hours is 2/28 12z..as the ending time stamp says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 LAF gets murdered between 12-18z on the 00z GFS...like .9 qpf during that time...probably mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah, a bump stronger from last run. Maybe he meant something else like qpf amounts. Why don't we get last second favorable bumps northwest? Wrong thread...I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 LAF gets murdered between 12-18z on the 00z GFS...like .9 qpf during that time...probably mostly rain. GFS and NAM both have 1.25"+ rainfall totals for us. Exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It's not much of a surprise to me at this point... like an earlier AFD mentioned, the models did the same thing last night. NW trend, SE trend... back and forth.This system is truly a "nowcast" situation. The mean low track is the track I would take attm while using the models as marginal guidance, mainly qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Anthony still seems solid on his forecast of 10-20cm or 4-8" in dt Toronto and up to 35cm+ or 14" away from the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 GFS and NAM both have 1.25"+ rainfall totals for us. Exciting. I'd consider it a minor victory if we could prolong our period of ice. 35 now, the last few degrees will be the hardest... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Haha, Anthony's skytracker model shows 40cm or 16" for Toronto haha. It wasn't far off the mark for the February 8 storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So who wants to ride the GFS and its tempered NW edge with me? J/k, I sure as heck won't be riding the model. I will consider it along with the others, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Anthony still seems solid on his forecast of 10-20cm or 4-8" in dt Toronto and up to 35cm+ or 14" away from the lake. He is honestly the best on-air met Toronto has. The Don Paul (Buffalo) of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'd consider it a minor victory if we could prolong our period of ice. 35 now, the last few degrees will be the hardest... Looks like the 0z RGEM had 2-3 hours of freezing rain. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Oh and I'm getting mad... last night at this time is was already into the teens under clear skies... tonight?? NOPE... temperatures staying STEADY at 31, under clear skies. Not that it matters much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 00z GFS looks solid for Chicago and northwest Indiana. 00z NAM surface parameters at MDW fwiw...first time FRZN shown as a precip type since I've been tracking this system: http://68.226.77.253/text/NAMSFC/NAM_KMDW.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It wasn't far off the mark for the February 8 storm! Yeah,it actually nailed it quite nicely. Still 24 hours out from this event so dont bring out your weeniess yet haha. Temperatures at the surface still pose a threat, a few tenths of a degree could make a huge difference. Like you said it resembles that Dec 92 storm. I wont be confident on any numbers till mid afternoon tomorrow. Whats your thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 That's the right map. End of the 0z run through 60 hours is 2/28 12z..as the ending time stamp says. Should have clarified. YOU posted the right map, hm8 posted the old map... notice his end timestamp of 2/27 12Z .. as the ending time stamps says It was a cache issue it seems on my end. Scratch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lake and Porter counties ftw http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=gfs&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&cycle=00ℑ=gfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_021_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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