toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Toronto folks: safely toss the NAM. I found the culprit running BUFKIT. After starting as snow the model inexplicably shoots temps at 900mb to +2c around 6z. This is during the heaviest pcpn when dynamic cooling should be occurring and has been shown on absolutely no other model. The column above the surface should be completely AOB freezing at 6z. Good to hear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Buh bye buddy.. We'll miss you!! Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lows get to NW IN on the 0z RGEM at 36 hours. Wow. DSM, MSN, GRB, DBQ, LSE all get well into the action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If only the MEE rule (Marquette-NAM-Euro) was a realistic one to use. everything is lining up nice.. will you be posting more at accuweather or western? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Good to hear Yeah, if it was warmth at the sfc, I could buy it as that's always been the concern. But this bubble of 1.5-2c warmth aloft that pops out of no where for now has to be discounted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 0z 4km NAM clown map. Pure entertainment only. At least a foot for MKE. Same for the near western and northern suburbs of Chicago...complete with sucker hole. Purple starts the 6" amounts...and then add 2" for each shade thereafter. 2:26 0z 4km NAM clown.gif I'm on the 10" line there. Biggest map out there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lows get to NW IN on the 0z RGEM at 36 hours. Wow. Would be almost due north from where it currently sits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Been awhile since i have seen some extended "balls out" snowfall rates...lookin' forward to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lows get to NW IN on the 0z RGEM at 36 hours. Wow. DSM, MSN, GRB, DBQ, LSE all get well into the action. MSN can't be denied. Not this year, not ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 everything is lining up nice.. will you be posting more at accuweather or western? Probably Western. Accuweather is more for OV posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 MSN can't be denied. Not this year, not ever. All the places listed above have had a good winter. What a comeback, for them, on the models with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Pretty reasonable run for SEMI at least, really And even with the bogus mixing the Toronto lakeshore still manages 8"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lows get to NW IN on the 0z RGEM at 36 hours. Wow. DSM, MSN, GRB, DBQ, LSE all get well into the action. I imagine ORD has mixing issues?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Farther to the east, 0z RGEM takes the low to just east of BUF at 1000mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Farther to the east, 0z RGEM takes the low to just east of BUF at 1000mb. Does it look like a good hit for YYZ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks like it's more or less a lock for at least some period of heavy plastering snowfall, which is all I really care about. Then again I'll be inside a machine center for most of the evening, so I probably wont see much I'll be working Btw my guess for metro Detroit 5-8" Another year, another year in my life without ever having witnessed TSSN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I imagine ORD has mixing issues?? Brief, but 90% snow at ORD. But the RGEM kinda weakens the precip as it moves through N IL...and then north. Dry slot issues. P-type maps here, just make sure you have it set to the 2/26 0z run: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html'>http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The commute on Wednesday morning could be a nightmare. I wonder if the heavy wet snow will bring down any power lines/roofs? What a February this has been! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Does it look like a good hit for YYZ? You annoy other members when you ask these questions. They don't care about YYZ (much like you don't care about their bys). Only ask me these questions from this point onward, k? Per RGEM looks like an hour or two rain/mix before we go over to heavy snow and then snow the rest of the way out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Does it look like a good hit for YYZ? Starts as a mix, then snow. But man, you have to add some of these bookmarks to your computer. RGEM p-type map: http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html'>http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 skilling keeps snow googles off staying with 3-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 MSN can't be denied. Not this year, not ever. For about 6 years MSN has been doing well, but I remember some lean years there in the early/mid 2000s where most of the action missed them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Does it look like a good hit for YYZ? http://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/models.html http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?mod=gfs&run=00&stn=PNM&hh=240&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=00&mod2=gemglb&hh2=240&comp=1&fixhh=1〈=en http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 You annoy other members when you ask these questions. They don't care about YYZ (much like you don't care about their bys). Only ask me these questions from this point onward, k? Per RGEM looks like an hour or two rain/mix before we go over to heavy snow and then snow the rest of the way out. Ok got it. I tend to ask too many IMBY questions. oh well it's just the weenie in me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RPM winds He mentioned a very interesting part about how the air column will pile up the air/moisture along the western shoreline of L MI as the winds slow down after running the width of the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Ok got it. I tend to ask too many IMBY questions. oh well it's just the weenie in me lol I'll check meteocentre when the site updates but it looks like a good hit of snow with the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Another year, another year in my life without ever having witnessed TSSN That is crazy that you have never witnessed TSSN considering I have seen it personally on... Feb 22, 2003 Oct 12, 2006 Mar 4, 2008 Dec 19, 2008 Feb 1, 2011 Feb 20, 2011 Mar 3, 2012 All of the above were here except Mar 3, 2012 was in Grayling. The top 3 for most Cantore-esque TSSN were Mar 4, 2008, Feb 20, 2011, & Mar 3, 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RPM winds rpm_wind.png Only 17mph here? We can't do anything right in the LAF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 You annoy other members when you ask these questions. They don't care about YYZ (much like you don't care about their bys). Only ask me these questions from this point onward, k? Per RGEM looks like an hour or two rain/mix before we go over to heavy snow and then snow the rest of the way out. How you going to hurt his weenie heart? haha The RGEM looked golden, lets hope this trend stays consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 doesnt appear that GFS will play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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