February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 2

[Chicago WX]

I'd go green for the LOT CWA. 

 

 

1.75" of rain not far from LAF on this run.

[Chitown Storm]

wisconsinwx is sweating the nam for sure

 

Marquette beat 'Cuse.  He'll be fine...I think. 

[Thundersnow12]

Looks like >1.00" liquid from about rt 47 on eastward in northern IL.

[Chargers09]

Oh yes lock it in because the NAM said so. What a joke, lets see if other new guidances align with this great sudden shift

I believe all of this is sarcasm and tongue-in-cheek.

[BowMeHunter]

Wouldn't surprise me lol. If the Euro holds serve I'll feel more confident on 6+ inches.

 

ee rule is back..  been awhile.

[mimillman]

purple, easy call

I wouldn't say it's an easy call, but it's certainly the best call. I think at this point, it's safe to say that 6+ amounts will be the exception, not the norm. Although yes it's possible that some in the LOT CWA break 6, the vast majority will struggle to get to 3 or 4. 

That said, I still think we're in for a relatively decent thump...possibly the biggest of the season...but there are just too many factors and too much uncertainty to put up a warning on this one. 

A heavy snow warning would've been perfect for this one.

[BowMeHunter]

Marquette beat 'Cuse.  He'll be fine...I think. 

 

ILL rule is the New MU rule..   we're golden

[Brewers]

A foot of snow for Saukville

Nam qpf through hr54

MKE - 1.03"

RAC - 1.07"

[Chicago WX]

ILL rule is the New MU rule..   we're golden

 

10"+, easy.

[nwohweather]

I believe all of this is sarcasm and tongue-in-cheek.

I think some of it is serious, definitely doesn't sound sarcastic

[BowMeHunter]

full moon also... what better time than ever for the NAM to pull the couple.

[BowMeHunter]

I think some of it is serious, definitely doesn't sound sarcastic

lol its all sarcasm.  and I'll stop now.

[snowstormcanuck]

Here's your next avatar TO Blizz

 

[Natester]

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361846182.821605.jpg A foot of snow for Saukville

 

Earlier in the day, the NAM completely missed Iowa.  Now it gives me 5-6 inches of cement.

[Thundersnow12]

I could see everything staying the same until morning. Milwaukee will need to backpedal if the GFS follows suit and the EURO stays the same.

 

Gino is working the overnight shift so curious to see how he handles his previous thinking.

[Hoosier]

So, if we talk about what's actually going on right now, based on surface analysis the surface low looks a bit elongated from AR into MS. The lowest pressure I can find is actually in MS. 00z NAM suggests roughly due north movement until after it gets into MO.

[snowstormcanuck]

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1361846182.821605.jpg A foot of snow for Saukville Nam qpf through hr54 MKE - 1.03" RAC - 1.07"

 

Here in Toronto that's a tighter lake shore gradient here than I've seen on those maps. I'm guessing the NAM's gotten a little warmer. Off to check soundings.

[Chicago WX]

Compare, contrast...0z NAM vs 12z NAM. Parts of MO, IA, and WI the big gainers. 

 

12z NAM total QPF through 12z Thursday.

 

0z NAM total QPF through 12z Thursday.

[nwohweather]

lol its all sarcasm.  and I'll stop now.

Ha it's been such a long day my sarcasm detector is gone. Too much writing and work, on top of making a forecast for the entire GL basically

[Chicago Storm]

LOT

 

842 PM...EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH BUT
MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES REMAIN.

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...WATCHING TEMPERATURE/PRECIP TRENDS
ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. WHILE TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE MID 30S...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO AROUND 30. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR AT
THE SURFACE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES
AND AS PRECIP BEGINS...MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...THAT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...PERHAPS
MIXED WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET...MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE REGARDING
TEMP TRENDS IS VERY LOW AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE
NEED FOR THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WATCH. THIS IS COMPLICATED BY
PRECIP TRENDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND WHETHER PRECIP CHANGES OVER
TO RAIN OR A MIX...THEN GOES BACK TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO
CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WATCH AND
MONITOR TEMP/PRECIP TRENDS INTO THE LATE EVENING TO SEE IF AN
ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THE THERMAL PROFILES ON THE 00Z NAM ARE CONCERNING FROM THE
STANDPOINT THAT THE SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT...+4C AT 850MB
AROUND 15Z...IS VIRTUALLY GONE BY 21Z AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS
NORTHERN IL WITH 850MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME MOSTLY BELOW ZERO. WITH
STRONGER LIFT...AND MORE VIGOROUS UPWARD MOTION...ITS POSSIBLE
THAT PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MORE SNOW AND PERHAPS ALL SNOW OVER
MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THAT DOESN/T
NECESSARILY MAKE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MUCH EASIER DEPENDING ON
THE WATER/SNOW RATIOS WHICH COULD BE AS LOW AS 6 OR 8 TO 1. AM
CONCERNED THAT OUR CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS ARE TOO LOW
WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0.4 IN NORTHEAST IL TO 0.7
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT ALSO DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE TO
INCREASE THESE YET EITHER. IF QPF AMOUNTS END UP BEING HIGHER AND
PRECIP REMAINS MORE SNOW...AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALLOWS THE SNOW
RATIOS TO FLUFF UP TO PERHAPS 10 TO 1...THEN SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD
EASILY REACH 6 INCHES AND PERHAPS MORE. IN ADDITION...IT WILL
BEGIN MIDDAY AND LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR. GIVEN ALL THIS...STILL PREFER TO LET THE
WATCH RIDE AND LET THE MID SHIFT FULLY EVALUATE THE 00Z SUITE OF
GUIDANCE. WILL ADD SNOWFALL RATES TO THE WSW HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS
IF HEAVY SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE...RATES COULD EASILY REACH 1 TO 2
INCHES PER HOUR. CMS 

[Geos]

Compare, contrast...0z NAM vs 12z NAM. Parts of MO, IA, and WI the big gainers. 

 

12z NAM total QPF through 12z Thursday.

2:25 12z NAM 60 QPF 2.gif

 

0z NAM total QPF through 12z Thursday.

2:26 0z NAM 60 QPF.gif

 

Significant difference in eastern Iowa! Cyclone riding the 0.75" line now.

[Snowstorms]

Here's your next avatar TO Blizz.

NNM.jpg

. LOOL, that looks fairly juicy.haha What's your thoughts on the Nam, temperatures were again marginal and in fact looked slightly warmer than I'd want them to me, hmph.

[Thundersnow12]

LOT

 

THE THERMAL PROFILES ON THE 00Z NAM ARE CONCERNING FROM THE

STANDPOINT THAT THE SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT...+4C AT 850MB

AROUND 15Z...IS VIRTUALLY GONE BY 21Z AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS

NORTHERN IL WITH 850MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME MOSTLY BELOW ZERO. WITH

STRONGER LIFT...AND MORE VIGOROUS UPWARD MOTION...ITS POSSIBLE

THAT PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MORE SNOW AND PERHAPS ALL SNOW OVER

MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THAT DOESN/T

NECESSARILY MAKE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MUCH EASIER DEPENDING ON

THE WATER/SNOW RATIOS WHICH COULD BE AS LOW AS 6 OR 8 TO 1. AM

CONCERNED THAT OUR CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS ARE TOO LOW

WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0.4 IN NORTHEAST IL TO 0.7

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT ALSO DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE TO

INCREASE THESE YET EITHER. IF QPF AMOUNTS END UP BEING HIGHER AND

PRECIP REMAINS MORE SNOW...AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALLOWS THE SNOW

RATIOS TO FLUFF UP TO PERHAPS 10 TO 1...THEN SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD

EASILY REACH 6 INCHES AND PERHAPS MORE. IN ADDITION...IT WILL

BEGIN MIDDAY AND LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR. GIVEN ALL THIS...STILL PREFER TO LET THE

WATCH RIDE AND LET THE MID SHIFT FULLY EVALUATE THE 00Z SUITE OF

GUIDANCE. WILL ADD SNOWFALL RATES TO THE WSW HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS

IF HEAVY SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE...RATES COULD EASILY REACH 1 TO 2

INCHES PER HOUR. CMS 

 

LOT gives the best discussions leading up to events, hands down.

[snowstormcanuck]

. LOOL, that looks fairly juicy.haha What's your thoughts on the Nam, temperatures were again marginal and in fact looked slightly warmer than I'd want them to me, hmph.

 

Those snowfall maps are really low resolution so I wouldn't read too much into it, but a slightly warmer solution would jibe with it being further north with the sfc low. Being in Vaughan though, I wouldn't worry. Probably close to if not in the sweet spot.

[mimillman]

LOT

 

842 PM...EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER STORM WATCH BUT

MULTIPLE FORECAST CONCERNS/CHALLENGES REMAIN.

IN THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...WATCHING TEMPERATURE/PRECIP TRENDS

ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. WHILE TEMPERATURES

CURRENTLY REMAIN IN THE MID 30S...DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S

TO AROUND 30. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR AT

THE SURFACE...ITS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS MAY DROP A FEW MORE DEGREES

AND AS PRECIP BEGINS...MOST LIKELY IN THE 09Z-11Z TIME FRAME ACROSS

THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA...THAT A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...PERHAPS

MIXED WITH SOME SNOW/SLEET...MAY DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE REGARDING

TEMP TRENDS IS VERY LOW AND ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN ADVISORY WILL BE

NEED FOR THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WATCH. THIS IS COMPLICATED BY

PRECIP TRENDS INTO TUESDAY MORNING AND WHETHER PRECIP CHANGES OVER

TO RAIN OR A MIX...THEN GOES BACK TO SNOW. AT THIS TIME...PLAN TO

CONTINUE WITH THE SPS FOR THE COUNTIES SOUTH OF THE WATCH AND

MONITOR TEMP/PRECIP TRENDS INTO THE LATE EVENING TO SEE IF AN

ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED.

THE THERMAL PROFILES ON THE 00Z NAM ARE CONCERNING FROM THE

STANDPOINT THAT THE SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER ALOFT...+4C AT 850MB

AROUND 15Z...IS VIRTUALLY GONE BY 21Z AS IT LIFTS NORTH ACROSS

NORTHERN IL WITH 850MB TEMPS AT THAT TIME MOSTLY BELOW ZERO. WITH

STRONGER LIFT...AND MORE VIGOROUS UPWARD MOTION...ITS POSSIBLE

THAT PRECIP MAY END UP BEING MORE SNOW AND PERHAPS ALL SNOW OVER

MUCH OF THE WATCH AREA. BUT EVEN IF THIS HAPPENS...THAT DOESN/T

NECESSARILY MAKE THE SNOWFALL FORECAST MUCH EASIER DEPENDING ON

THE WATER/SNOW RATIOS WHICH COULD BE AS LOW AS 6 OR 8 TO 1. AM

CONCERNED THAT OUR CURRENT QPF AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS ARE TOO LOW

WITH STORM TOTALS RANGING FROM ROUGHLY 0.4 IN NORTHEAST IL TO 0.7

ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...BUT ALSO DON/T HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE TO

INCREASE THESE YET EITHER. IF QPF AMOUNTS END UP BEING HIGHER AND

PRECIP REMAINS MORE SNOW...AND DYNAMIC COOLING ALLOWS THE SNOW

RATIOS TO FLUFF UP TO PERHAPS 10 TO 1...THEN SNOWFALL TOTALS COULD

EASILY REACH 6 INCHES AND PERHAPS MORE. IN ADDITION...IT WILL

BEGIN MIDDAY AND LIKELY HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE TUESDAY

AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR. GIVEN ALL THIS...STILL PREFER TO LET THE

WATCH RIDE AND LET THE MID SHIFT FULLY EVALUATE THE 00Z SUITE OF

GUIDANCE. WILL ADD SNOWFALL RATES TO THE WSW HOWEVER AS IT APPEARS

IF HEAVY SNOW DOES MATERIALIZE...RATES COULD EASILY REACH 1 TO 2

INCHES PER HOUR. CMS 

Nightmare of a forecast, yikes. Possibly the biggest challenge for LOT all season.

One question though: this is probably because I'm not trained in meteorology, or maybe I just haven't been doing this long enough, but...it looks like the NAM thermal profiles are much too warm for the first 3 hours or so of precipitation. They mention it in the discussion, but wouldn't this significantly cut back on accumulations? I was expecting this discussion to be leaning towards an advisory, whereas the writing reads more bullish to me. What does everyone else think?

[Brewers]

GRB

MUCH LIKE THE LAST 2 NIGHTS...THE RECENTLY ARRIVED 21Z SREF AND

CURRENTLY ARRIVING 00Z NAM SHIFTED THE TRACK OF THE SRN PLAINS

CYCLONE BACK TO THE NW. BUT WHAT HAPPENED YESTERDAY WAS THAT

EVERYTHING THAT CAME IN AFTER THE 00Z NAM...INCLUDING THE LATER-

ARRIVING 00Z RUNS AND THE 06Z RUN...TRENDED MUCH FARTHER S.

LOOKING AT THE UPR LOW OVER THE SRN PLAINS RIGHT NOW...THE MAX

WINDS HAVE CLEARLY ROTATED ARND TO THE ERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

THAT WOULD FAVOR SYSTEM TRAKING MORE NELY FROM WHERE IT IS

NOW...AND BRING IT CLOSER TO THE FCST AREA. SO GUESS IS THAT AT LEAST

A MODEST NWWD SHIFT WL OCCUR WITH THE REST OF THE 00Z RUNS AS

WELL. SO WHILE NAM WL PROBABLY END UP BEING AN OUTLIER AGAIN...IT

MAY AT LEAST BE TRENDING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. BEST GUESS IS

THAT SYSTEM WL GENERATE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW IN THE GRB

AREA...WITH A FEW INCHES IN THE SE CORNER OF THE AREA. GIVEN THAT

IDEA...CURRENT FCST APPEARS A LITTLE TOO TAME. BUT GIVEN THE GREAT

STRUGGLES WE/VE HAD LOCKING IN ON THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND NWD

EXTENT OF THE SNOW SHIELD...DON/T PLAN ON MAKING ANY CHGS TO THE

FCST THIS EVENING. THAT WL ALLOW THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TO MAKE

ADJUSTMENTS AFTER REVIEWING THE ENTIRE 00Z DATASET.

UPDATED PRODUCT SUITE OUT ASAP.

[csnavywx]

Precip has started. Getting pingers mixed with mutilated/partially melted and refrozen snowflakes.

[toronto blizzard]

Here's your next avatar TO Blizz

 

NNM.jpg

Done

[Snowstorms]

Those snowfall maps are really low resolution so I wouldn't read too much into it, but a slightly warmer solution would jibe with it being further north with the sfc low. Being in Vaughan though, I wouldn't worry. Probably close to if not in the sweet spot.

. True, did you run it through BUFKIT? I think areas even around 401 including YYZ will get almost as similar amounts to area around Steeles and north, but I suspect lower totals near the Lake. Still have 24 hours, lol. I do think this storm may cause more damage than the previous one only because of the snowfall being heavier.

[snowstormcanuck]

And here's your problem. ugh.