Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hopefully this pulls a March 1998 for NE IL/NW IN. That was one of the biggest forecast busts I can ever recall. Yep, experienced it northwest of here. General forecasts were for around an inch or perhaps a tad more. I knew pretty much nothing back then other than how to look at a radar but I'll never forget it. I went to bed expecting to wake up to a surprise...meanwhile, 12" of paste later... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTX LONG TERM TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY THE DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL TEXAS BOTTOMED INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH MODEL DATA SUPPORTS LIFTING THIS ANOMALY NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS BEFORE STALLING OUT OVER PORTIONS OF PA/NY/NJ WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE STORM TERM PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION CENTERS ON THE POTENTIAL WINTER STORM SET TO AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A LEAD SPIRAL OF 500MB CYCLONIC VORTICITY IS SHOWN TO LIFT INTO PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN PRIOR TO 18Z TUESDAY. THIS IS A GOOD INDICATOR THAT OPAQUE MID CLOUD WILL BE BLANKETING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA BY THE AFTERNOON. IMPORTANT AS IT SHOULD LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE HEATING RESPONSE UNDER THE CANOPY AS MAXT OCCUR AHEAD OF THE MIDCLOUDS. THIS IS NON-TRIVIAL WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES TODAY PUSHING 40 DEGREES. THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE OH/MI STATELINE AT/AROUND 21Z TUESDAY. THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED ON THE MIDLEVEL OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE MAIN/CONSOLIDATED PV ANOMALY OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IN/KY (00Z WEDNESDAY). VIRTUALLY ALL MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION AS SNOW FROM THE START. ANY WARM LAYER CENTERED OFF THE DECK BETWEEN 900-800MB SHOULD RAPIDLY WET BULB DOWN TO THE FREEZING MARK. VARIOUS ALGORITHM TYPE PARAMETERS...INCLUDING MOS AND SOME OTHERS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH PTYPE DUE TO WARM SFC TEMPS...33-35 DEGREES F. THESE TOOLS SEEM TO BE KEYING OFF SOME INNOCUOUS WARM LAYERS ALL OF WHICH WILL BE COOLER THAN 3C. LOOKING THROUGH THE MODELS IT IS REALLY DIFFICULT TO GET A HANDLE WHERE THE MID 30 DEGREES SURFACE TEMPS ARE COMING FROM AFTER THE START OF PRECIPITATION. DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON FROM WV/PA THROUGH OHIO AND ONTARIO ARE ALL IN THE TEENS TO 20S...A POSITIVE FOR THE ALL SNOW PTYPE. THE BAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD...DETROIT SOUTHWARD AFTER 2PM EST...NORTHERN BURBS...AFTER 4PM EST...FLINT AND THE TRI CITIES AFTER 6PM. THE MAIN POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANOMALY RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE CLOSED OFF INTO A BOWLING BALL OVER ARKANSAS BY 12 TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A LOBE/OR PV FILAMENT ROTATING AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIMETER OF THE ANOMALY BETWEEN 12-15Z...THE SYSTEM WILL BE IN A FILLING MODE. THE AFOREMENTIONED OCCLUSION EMANATING NORTHEASTWARD WILL BRING GOOD PRECIPITATION RATES IN DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE SYSTEM IN A MATURE STATE...MOISTURE DEPTH ALONG THIS MAIN BAND WILL BE OUTSTANDING...UPWARDS OF 30 KFT AGL...WITH LOW STATIC STABILITY ABOVE 700MB. SYSTEM RELATIVE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE CENTERED AT ROUGHLY THE 285K SURFACE DURING THE AFTERNOON BEFORE LOWERING DOWN TO AROUND 300K DURING THE EVENING. SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES MOISTURE WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 4 G/KG SHOWN THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN. PROGGED UVVS ARE SHOWN TO BE HIGH AND WITH EVERYTHING CONSIDERED...1 INCH PER HOUR TYPE SNOW RATES ARE EXPECTED AT THE ONSET. THE REAL QUESTION AND UNCERTAINTY WILL BE WHAT SORT OF SNOW ACCUMULATING EFFICIENCY WILL BE EXPERIENCED WITH THE SNOWFALL RATES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. OVERALL DURATION FOR ANY ONE AREA WILL BE ROUGHLY 3 TO 4 HOURS. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT 1 INCH PER HOUR RATES WILL ALLOW THE SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ON THE ROADS. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS DURING THE EVENING WITHIN THE BAND ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 2 TO 4 INCH RANGE. ANOTHER MAIN QUESTION MARK MOVING FORWARD IS WHAT SORT OF SECONDARY TROWAL/ISENTROPIC LIFT RESPONSE OCCURS AS THE CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION LIFTS UP AND BRUSHES FAR WESTERN LAKE ERIE 06-12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS IS INTERESTING AS FRONTAL AND UVV FORCING FROM A CONCEPTUAL MODEL STANDPOINT SHOULD AGAIN BECOME MAXIMIZED. THE NWP IS REALLY STRUGGLING WITH THIS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THIS FORCING COULD CAUSE A CONSIDERABLE ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE. FOR EXAMPLE..MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE SHOWING THE DRY SLOT THAT WILL FOLLOW THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO BEGIN FILLING IN WITH SATURATION. ADDITIONALLY...ECMWF AND NAM ARE BOTH SHOWING QPF BULLSEYES LATE (ECMWF OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN OHIO AND THE NAM OVER PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA OVER ST CLAIR COUNTY/LAKE ST CLAIR). CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME...REGARDING THIS SECONDARY RESPONSE...BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE FAR EASTERN CWA. THIS ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES COULD PUSH AMOUNTS OVER 6 INCHES. THEREFORE...THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE ALLOWED TO CONTINUE FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GREATER THAN 6 INCH AMOUNTS. FARTHER NORTH OVER THE SAGINAW VALLEY...PRECIPITATION OCCURRENCE OUTSIDE OF EVENING COMMUTE AND AMOUNTS IN THE 3 TO 5 INCH RANGE FELT PRUDENT TO UPGRADE TO ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 15z SREF means: DTW: 8.15" GRR: 6.29" BTL: 7.06" ORD: 9.25" UGN: 8.72" DKB: 6.52" MKE: 7.67" MSN: 3.45" RFD: 4.94" DVN: 5.99" DBQ: 4.04" CID: 3.76" MKG: 4.20" LAN: 7.58" VPZ: 7.66" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 15z SREF plume action for ORD. Black line is the mean. 3 hourly temperatures 3 hourly QPF 3 hourly precipitation type (blue=snow, green=rain) 3 hourly snowfall Total snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yep, experienced it northwest of here. General forecasts were for around an inch or perhaps a tad more. I knew pretty much nothing back then other than how to look at a radar but I'll never forget it. I went to bed expecting to wake up to a surprise...meanwhile, 12" of paste later... Pretty sure they weren't calling for much snow at all for IKK. 8" later... December 11, 2000 was my second favorite bust, for IKK. Shame they tend not to work out like that much anymore. Technology FTW I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 RGEM still looks nice, even down here: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Pretty sure they weren't calling for much snow at all for IKK. 8" later... December 11, 2000 was my second favorite bust, for IKK. Shame they tend not to work out like that much anymore. Technology FTW I guess. Yeah, the deck is stacked against extreme last minute swerves even compared to 10-15 years ago I'm sure. With all of the models nowadays, at least we can often see what the higher end possibilities are even if it's not the most likely solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Was just talking to an off duty WFO Toronto meteorologist over Facebook. He said he was a bit surprised not to see a winter storm watch issued for at least areas N/W of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Was just talking to an off duty WFO Toronto meteorologist over Facebook. He said he was a bit surprised not to see a winter storm watch issued for at least areas N/W of Toronto. For EC the last 4-5 years, confidence level for a watch = confidence level for a warning. Anyway, I think the consistency of the EURO is good enough for me. QPF is probably a bit high but outside of a bit of rain near Lake Ontario right at the beginning, think virtually all the pcpn will be snow. btw...18z NAM BUFKIT is 11" of cement for YYZ. It can run cold with 2m temps, but it nailed today when the GEM and GFS MOS were too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Day 2 QPF from HPC...looking good especially if we can stay all or mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z GFS took a step towards the NAM and EURO with colder temps and slightly more precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For my friends down in Hamilton, I ran BUFKIT on the 18z NAM for YHM. A little more of a mixed bag, at least initially. A couple of hours of rain initially and a bit of ZR as well before a switch to +SN by late evening. Looks like about 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 New LOT grid has a rain/snow mix tomorrow during the day and snow at night. 3-7" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For my friends down in Hamilton, I ran BUFKIT on the 18z NAM for YHM. A little more of a mixed bag, at least initially. A couple of hours of rain initially and a bit of ZR as well before a switch to +SN by late evening. Looks like about 8". Whats 18z GFS bufkit like for YYZ. Based on looking at the snow map I would guess it's around the NAMs 11'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For my friends down in Hamilton, I ran BUFKIT on the 18z NAM for YHM. A little more of a mixed bag, at least initially. A couple of hours of rain initially and a bit of ZR as well before a switch to +SN by late evening. Looks like about 8". Thanks SSC...will be sure to report what is happening down here tomorrow evening. EDIT: Not sure how much you guys like the GFS with this event...but take this for what its worth. 18z GFS snow depth through 12z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 15z SREF plumes have 10-20" for Toronto. They were about 4" too high for the Feb 8th storm, so let's say 6-16". Then cut off the higher end of the range due to low ratios and marginal temps, and we have about 6-12". That doesn't seem unreasonable, although my official call remains 4-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z NAM text for LAF with the temporary flip to snow (totaling 2.5"). 0.1% chance of happening, but I need to dream. 21 02/26 15Z 32 31 61 21 0.30 0.00 547 549 3.5 -16.5 1002 100 RA 007OVC319 0.0 1.024 02/26 18Z 33 32 76 16 0.28 0.00 543 542 -0.8 -18.7 999 100 -SN 008OVC273 2.5 7.627 02/26 21Z 34 33 74 14 0.04 0.00 541 538 0.6 -22.7 996 100 -RA 008OVC149 0.0 7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z NAM text for LAF with the temporary flip to snow (totaling 2.5"). 0.1% chance of happening, but I need to dream. 21 02/26 15Z 32 31 61 21 0.30 0.00 547 549 3.5 -16.5 1002 100 RA 007OVC319 0.0 1.024 02/26 18Z 33 32 76 16 0.28 0.00 543 542 -0.8 -18.7 999 100 -SN 008OVC273 2.5 7.627 02/26 21Z 34 33 74 14 0.04 0.00 541 538 0.6 -22.7 996 100 -RA 008OVC149 0.0 7.3 Incremental steps. Looked hopeless yesterday for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Incremental steps. Looked hopeless yesterday for you guys. Still is hopeless. But hey, miracles are possible... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For my final call, I'm going to go with 6"; 8" if I'm lucky. Luckily the heaviest precip is forecast to fall at night. Hopefully it's a December 1992 repeat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 hi-res WRF ptype. Rain initially for Niagara and Haldimand. Rain gets close to the Toronto shoreline when the pcpn starts but by late evening dynamic cooling kicks in and almost everyone safely snow. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/mm/wrfkfw/ptype.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My call is 10.5" downtown, 12" for northern GTA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Anthony Farnell tweeting/live reporting a call of 6" for downtown T.O. and 12" for areas north and west of Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Whats 18z GFS bufkit like for YYZ. Based on looking at the snow map I would guess it's around the NAMs 11'' 10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This event has a very "make or break" feeling for me. If we are able to overcome BL temp issues and accumulate some appreciable snow, it will by no means make up for this god awful winter, but it will make the sting of a ****ty Dec and Jan a bit less. If this thing busts, and there is an above average chance that it will, bring on spring/Morch. That way I can leave the worst winter I can remember in the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What's Toronto's YTD snowfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I can't imagine a 6" discrepancy between downtown TO and north of the city. This is synoptic and likely will be all snow for everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This event has a very "make or break" feeling for me. If we are able to overcome BL temp issues and accumulate some appreciable snow, it will by no means make up for this god awful winter, but it will make the sting of a ****ty Dec and Jan a bit less. If this thing busts, and there is an above average chance that it will, bring on spring/Morch. That way I can leave the worst winter I can remember in the dust. Hopefully it will be like the 2/7 storm, but just a bit further south over you! Please, no Morch again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Clouds starting to come in here after being sunny all day. That is always a bit annoying the night before a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Clouds starting to come in here after being sunny all day. That is always a bit annoying the night before a storm...when you need every degree cooler you can get. Added a little something above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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