Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 yeah hard to imagine much of an ice threat with warm surface temps heading into things and a marginal thermal profile as is. The afd just came out and it kinda contradicts what's in the zones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 IND pulled the trigger on an advisory here. They are actually kinda bullish on ice amounts (per the zones at least) given how marginal the setup is. Bet the overnight crew cancels that...as stated is possible in their AFD. But better to be cautious I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Cool, wanted to gauge your thoughts right now. I assume more north and west of you? Hopefully it overachieves for you. Good luck Mike. Yeah, I don't think I'll be in the bullseye. More to the NW. Only if somehow I manage to get completely below 32 at the surface for the entire event will some of those bigger numbers verify here. Not likely but not impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The afd just came out and it kinda contradicts what's in the zones. I hate buying into ice events when the days leading up are well above freezing and the temps during prime hours are at best right around freezing anyways, rush hour crippler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The afd just came out and it kinda contradicts what's in the zones. lol, kind of a confusing forecast. Tuesday: Breezy. Freezing rain and sleet...possibly mixed with rain until midday...then rain...possibly mixed with snow and sleet in the afternoon. No snow and sleet accumulation. Ice accumulation of one tenth to two tenths of an inch. Of one tenth to one quarter of an inch. Nearly steady temperatures in the mid 30s. East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 LOT goes purple...DTX pink I agree, only because LOT is very difficult to change in their opinions. They may be right, but model runs suggest for the possibility of reaching warning criteria. Idk, it's an extremely difficult forecast to make. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I hate buying into ice events when the days leading up are well above freezing and the temps during prime hours are at best right around freezing anyways, rush hour crippler The visibility alone with wind, will be enough to be a crippler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 LOT goes purple...DTX pink DTX is usually conservative but they've been strangely gung-ho with this system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I agree, only because LOT is very difficult to change in their opinions. They may be right, but model runs suggest for the possibility of reaching warning criteria. Idk, it's an extremely difficult forecast to make. warning criteria amounts still look to be the exception...go WWA and upgrade if radar trends look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Super weenie hi-res run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michigansnowstorm Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Winter Storm Watch continues for eastern lower Michigan through Wed. Morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The March 1991 ice storm here had a full week to 10 days of 50's and 60's preceding it. Not sure it really matters what happens before, as much as what happens during. Of course, this is no March 1991 set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michigansnowstorm Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 353 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 ...A WINTER STORM TO AFFECT SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT... .A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES...A PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL STREAM ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE COLD ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW WITHIN THIS MOISTURE PLUME. CONSEQUENTLY...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BE WET AND HEAVY IN NATURE. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF HEAVY WET SNOW TO ACCUMULATE ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN...WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS FARTHER WEST. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AS TO THE OVERALL TRACK OF THIS STORM SYSTEM AND THE LOCATIONS WHICH WILL RECEIVE THE MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW. ...WINTER STORM WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING... THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. * SNOWFALL RATES MAY EXCEED AN INCH AN HOUR TUESDAY EVENING. IMPACTS... * RAPID SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND POOR VISIBILITIES MAY LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * THE HEAVY WET SNOW MAY PUT STRESS ON TREES AND POWER LINES... CAUSING SOME POWER OUTAGES. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS. * PREPARE...PLAN...AND STAY INFORMED. VISIT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Bet the overnight crew cancels that...as stated is possible in their AFD. But better to be cautious I guess... Gonna be close no matter what. 43 right now, you can thank late Feb sun for that but it still means that we have farther to drop to get AOB freezing. A couple positives are the early morning onset and E/NE flow in the lowest 100 mb or so which is not conducive to rapid warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Even so, those are 6+ amounts in northwest Indiana that weren't there before. The axis of the heaviest snows in Chicagoland has shifted slightly southeast to now encompass those two Indiana counties (Porter and Lake I think?). You are guys are gonna do super up there though. Take pictures please!! I'll make sure to post pics of my mud tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Super weenie hi-res run 6" line gets into the NW part of Tippecanoe County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MKX TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM. THE HEAVIEST BAND OF QPF/SNOW WILL ROLL THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE MAIN DEEP FORCING WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVES IN. THE MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF VARIABILITY ON QPF NUMBERS. THE NAM/ECMWF KICK OUT ABOUT .7 TO .8 INCH LIQUID ACROSS KENOSHA COUNTY BETWEEN 6PM TUE-NOON WED. ABOUT 1/10 INCH LESS IN MILWAUKEE...EVEN LESS TOWARD SHEBOYGAN. THE GFS IS MORE ON THE ORDER OF 25-.35 QUITE A BIT LESS. THE TRACK OF THE LOW HASN/T CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY. THE MODELS ARE JUST STRUGGLING WITH HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM AS IT ARRIVES. ALSO...THE NAM STILL LOOKS LIKE IT/S OVERDOING THE IMPACT OF THE LOW LEVEL OMEGA CAUSED BY THE MECHANICAL FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE ON THE WEST SHORE OF THE LAKE. THE EXTRA QPF ACROSS THE SE IS NOT FROM TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT DUE TO A BIG TEMP DIFFERENTIAL ACROSS THE WATER. WE DON/T HAVE THOSE DELTA T/S IN THIS CASE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME ADDITIONAL QPF/SNOW FROM THE EXTRA UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...BUT NOT LIKELY WHAT THE NAM DEPICTS. CIPS ANALOGS CONTINUE TO LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS...THEY CONTINUE TO SHOW A SOLID 3 TO MAYBE 5 INCH EVENT. BACK TO THE QPF. THOSE VALUES ARE IMPRESSIVE...BUT...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER MILD WITH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS FOR THE INITIAL HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE 7 OR 8 TO 1 RATIOS /MAYBE LOWER IF WE GET MORE WARM AIR UP HERE LIKE TODAY/. AS THE COLUMN COOLS...THOSE RATIOS WILL INCREASE...BUT THE PRECIP WILL BE DIMINISHING BY THAT TIME. SO...WILL CONTINUE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST. THERE/S A CHANCE IT MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXPANDED IF THE QPF CONTINUES TO INCREASE. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT BE RATHER LIGHT AND WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING...ROAD CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IN DECENT SHAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 fwiw I set the over/under at 2.3" (for no particular reason actually) and when I left the weather center it was roughly 2:1 over:under. This looks like the kind of event where we either get an inch of slush, or hammered with 6-8", but in-between is almost impossible. Obviously I'm leaning towards the former right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 TWN's forecast https://twitter.com/weathernetwork/status/306080524873646080/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 afternoon package from LOT keeps watches in place for another forecast cycle. Gino really deflating everyone's weenies by saying that convection will be required for snow to stick (not that I'm disagreeing with that, but it's still depressing to hear) .DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)... 254 PM CST HAVE OPTED TO LET THE WINTER STORM WATCH RIDE FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXTRAORDINARILY CHALLENGING FORECAST TODAY ONLY COMPOUNDED BY MAJOR DATA OUTAGES THIS MORNING IN AWIPS. VIGOROUS CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON WITH STRONG 3HR PRESSURE FALLS (NEAR 5MB) IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW FROM AR/LA EAST- NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY LIKELY INDICATING THE NEAR FUTURE TRACK/MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. EXPLOSIVE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS TAKING PLACE FROM EASTERN KS SOUTH TO WESTERN LA WITH A WELL DEVELOPED TROWAL FROM KANSAS SW TO WEST TEXAS. UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK NORTHEAST TOWARD THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED TROWAL LIKELY TO PROPAGATE NORTHEAST INTO MISSOURI AND DOWNSTATE ILLINOIS...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH INTO OUR CWA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING GRADUALLY SPREADING NORTH TO THE WISCONSIN BORDER BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO OCCLUDE AND BEGIN WEAKENING TUESDAY WITH ASSOCIATED TROWAL ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TUESDAY...BUT THERE IS SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN HOW QUICKLY THE WEAKENING WILL TAKE PLACE AND HOW INTENSE THE VERTICAL MOTION AND ASSOCIATED DYNAMIC COOLING WILL BE OVER OUR CWA TUESDAY. THE DYNAMIC COOLING WILL NEED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO OVER COME THE VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION THAT WILL BE TAKING PLACE AS RESULT OF 50KT+ LLJ. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE COOLING ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...BUT MY CONFIDENCE IN THEIR HANDLING OF THIS IS NOT OVERLY HIGH AND SREF P-TYPE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DISTINCT AND NOTICEABLE NORTHWESTWARD TREND WITH RAIN/SNOW TUESDAY. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING FROM MID LEVEL COLD POOL (NEARLY -30C AT 500MB) DOES RAISE CONCERNS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD THIS OCCUR WOULD INCREASE THE CHANCES FOR SUBSTANTIAL DYNAMIC COOLING AND LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW. ONE OF THE BIGGEST POTENTIAL COMPLICATIONS WITH RESPECT TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION LIES WITH LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILE. AS ALLUDED TO IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS THE MODELS DO AN ABSOLUTELY HORRENDOUS JOB HANDLING BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WHEN THERE IS SNOW COVER...OR WORSE YET WHEN THE MODEL THINKS THERE IS SNOW COVER THAT IS NOT THERE. AFTER BACK TO BACK DAYS BLOWING AWAY GUIDANCE TEMPS A HUGE DENT HAS BEEN MADE ON THE SNOW PACK WITH VIRTUALLY NO SNOW COVER LEFT IN INDIANA AND VERY LITTLE (OTHER THAN PILES) FROM CHICAGO TO PERU SOUTHEASTWARD. MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING SNOW COVER IN THIS AREA AND ARE RESPONDING BY PRODUCING AN UNREALISTIC THERMAL GRADIENT AT THE EDGE OF THE MODEL PERCEIVED SNOW COVER OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND INDIANA TUESDAY. STRONGLY SUSPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL GET MUCH WARMER THAN RAW 2M TEMPS IN THE MODELS SUGGEST...AND HAVE RAISED HIGHS CLOSER TO MOS VALUES WHICH MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO COOL. ONCE PRECIP BEGINS EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO DROP SOME...BUT WITH WET BULBS PROGGED TO BE NEAR IF NOT JUST A BIT OVER FREEZING THINKING THAT MANY AREAS COULD SEE THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION FALL WITH SFC TEMPS AOA FREEZING. THIS WOULD DRAMATICALLY REDUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS...AND RAISES SUBSTANTIAL DOUBTS ABOUT GOING SNOWFALL FORECASTS AND ANY POTENTIAL TO REACH WARNING CRITERIA. GIVEN THE PRECIP WILL BE LARGELY OCCURRING DURING THE DAYTIME BATTLING ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND THE INCREASINGLY HIGH LATE FEB SUN ANGLE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF MELTING TO OCCUR GREATLY LIMITING SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL. IN ORDER FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS TO REACH THE GOING FORECAST FOR THE WATCH AREA (3-6") IT WOULD ALMOST CERTAINLY REQUIRE CONVECTIVE IF NOT THUNDERSNOW. GIVEN THAT THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR FELT THE COURSE OF LEAST REGRET WAS TO LET THE WATCH AND GOING SNOWFALL FORECAST RIDE...HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO IS INCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY SNOWFALL AT WORST. IN CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL DOESN`T OCCUR THEN IT WOULD NOT BE DIFFICULT TO ENVISION A SCENARIO WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 3" OVER MOST OF THE WATCH AREA WITH VERY LOW SNOW:LIQUID RATIOS AND A LOT OF MELTING. CLEARLY THIS IS AN EXCEEDINGLY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...WHICH IS ALMOST ALWAYS THE CASE WITH SPRING SNOW STORMS AND IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THIS IS GOING TO TURN INTO A SCENARIO WHERE WE WONT HAVE A TRULY GOOD HANDLE ON THE FORECAST UNTIL WE GET INTO THE "NOWCAST" TIME RANGE TOMORROW MORNING. NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW PROGGED TO WEAKEN AND ESTABLISH RESIDENCY OVER THE EAST GREAT LAKES. SMALL...DIFFICULT TO FORECAST...WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY PIVOT AROUND THE UPPER LOW BRINGING AT LEAST OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH OTHERWISE CLOUDY AND DISMAL WEATHER TO CLOSE OUT WHAT HAS OTHERWISE BEEN A TOLERABLE CHICAGO METEOROLOGICAL WINTER. IZZI/MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 TWN's forecast https://twitter.com/weathernetwork/status/306080524873646080/photo/1 Toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 choice lines HOWEVER THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ISINCREASINGLY LOOKING LIKE A BORDERLINE ADVISORY SNOWFALL AT WORST.IN CONVECTIVE SNOWFALL DOESN`T OCCUR THEN IT WOULD NOT BE DIFFICULTTO ENVISION A SCENARIO WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 3" OVERMOST OF THE WATCH AREA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Gonna be close no matter what. 43 right now, you can thank late Feb sun for that but it still means that we have farther to drop to get AOB freezing. A couple positives are the early morning onset and E/NE flow in the lowest 100 mb or so which is not conducive to rapid warming. Looks like one of those weird advisory set ups with a WWA here and nothing to the west in ILX's CWA (east of I-55) all the way up to LOT's SE CWA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Toss Yeah, I don't get it. Even the RGEM/GGEM are all/mostly snow right to the lakeshore. 10-20mm of rain is ridiculous at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 A little OT but Amarillo is getting blasted...17" and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 As usual, Gino delivers great and very informative AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hopefully this pulls a March 1998 for NE IL/NW IN. That was one of the biggest forecast busts I can ever recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Final call for my backyard: 11.1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hopefully this pulls a March 1998 for NE IL/NW IN. That was one of the biggest forecast busts I can ever recall. Yeah, I'm giving up on temps. At this point just have to hope a gonzo mega band with 2" per hour rates rolls in and makes it a moot point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah, I'm giving up on temps. At this point just have to hope a gonzo mega band with 2" per hour rates rolls in and makes it a moot point Better make it 3" per hour rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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