A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z NAM is going to bust out a Euro like weenie run...EE rule in effect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 If we're showing off p&c forecasts...for my hood. Tonight: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 4am, then freezing rain and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Blustery, with a east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 7am, then rain or freezing rain between 7am and 10am, then rain after 10am. High near 36. Breezy, with a east wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Mine just says, your getting a whole lot of RAIN! Then a few flurries on the back end.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM looks better here, slower and stalls the band over this area tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z NAM tries to flip LAF to snow around 18z tomorrow. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 lol Yeah, I don't know if I buy it but it shows how we're teetering. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z NAM with a perfect track for Chicago. GFS looking lonely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 razor gradient across DVN and into northern MO on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah, I don't know if I buy it but it shows how we're teetering. Maybe it will be mood flakes. Of course that would be the worst tease ever. Worst then a 33° rain, imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 nam develops what looks like a lake enhanced vienna band by 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yeah, I don't know if I buy it but it shows how we're teetering. We always do so well when things are marginal. A few mangled flakes at best. 33-34 and rain...and then we torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 lol, no watch from EC. Not even for the high ground N and W of Toronto. Again, they're not very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We always do so well when things are marginal. A few mangled flakes at best. 33-34 and rain...and then we torch. Shorts weather? Being serious, I think mid to upper 30s at best is about what we'll do with all the clouds/precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 lol, no watch from EC. Not even for the high ground N and W of Toronto. Again, they're not very good.They will once again warn people last minute about what could potentially be a very high impact storm.BTW nam still brings 8-12" for YYZ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 lol, no watch from EC. Not even for the high ground N and W of Toronto. Again, they're not very good. And only 2-4" tomorrow night (1" by the lakeshore). All models are showing 2 or 3 times the amount that Environment Canada is forecasting for tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 lol, no watch from EC. Not even for the high ground N and W of Toronto. Again, they're not very good. What do you expect? LOL. its EC. I suspect it wont be till tomorrow morning before EC will issue any sort of watch or warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 And only 2-4" tomorrow night (1" by the lakeshore). All models are showing 2 or 3 times the amount that Environment Canada is forecasting for tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. I really have no idea why the weather outlet are still saying rain for the lakeshore. Models continue to trend south with the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Shorts weather? Being serious, I think mid to upper 30s at best is about what we'll do with all the clouds/precip. Relative torch. Fully agreed on the mid to upper 30's...with an outside shot of hitting 40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 So, GRR and others go WWA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 lol, no watch from EC. Not even for the high ground N and W of Toronto. Again, they're not very good. If you had to make a call for YBY right now, what would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My call of 3 inches of snow looks too high. According to the NAM, I won't get any snow at all. >_> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I really have no idea why the weather outlet are still saying rain for the lakeshore. Models continue to trend south with the storm. I can understand caution and shying away from the huge amounts with marginal temps, but with the amount of model agreement, it seems like a soggy half a foot for most of the west end of Lake Ontario and Niagara escarpment is more than a 50% possibility. They must have in house models that are warmer but look how bad they busted today. 5c was the high. We're stuck at 1.5c. Snowcover does wonders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 If you had to make a call for YBY right now, what would it be? about 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 IND pulled the trigger on an advisory here. They are actually kinda bullish on ice amounts (per the zones at least) given how marginal the setup is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Eyes on DTX and LOT...will they go pink or blue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 IND pulled the trigger on an advisory here. They are actually kinda bullish on ice amounts (per the zones at least) given how marginal the setup is. yeah hard to imagine much of an ice threat with warm surface temps heading into things and a marginal thermal profile as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Eyes on DTX and LOT...will they go pink or blue? LOT goes purple...DTX pink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I can understand caution and shying away from the huge amounts with marginal temps, but with the amount of model agreement, it seems like a soggy half a foot for most of the west end of Lake Ontario and Niagara escarpment is more than a 50% possibility. They must have in house models that are warmer but look how bad they busted today. 5c was the high. We're stuck at 1.5c. Snowcover does wonders. This added snow cover on the ground may help keep temperatures marginally cooler at the surface around the storm time in my opinion. Thats a good 3.5C off what EC had predicted. I still have a decent snow pack, averaging around 4" or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 about 6". Cool, wanted to gauge your thoughts right now. I assume more north and west of you? Hopefully it overachieves for you. Good luck Mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM - 72hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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