snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Massive 1.60" QPF for YYZ in the 12Z EURO. YKF picks up 1.23" QPF with slightly lower temps. Either way looking like southern Ontario may clean up on this storm. temps also trended a bit colder for YYZ, although still marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Riding the Euro? MDW reporting 41 degrees... 43 bank clock, full on torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 43 bank clock, full on torch Normal (KMDW) 39 °F 25 °F Well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Normal (KMDW) 39 °F 25 °F Well. MDW is well outside downtown and even ORD (also outside downtown) is 41. The 43 is legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 be nice if it started a little closer to sunset.. If its ripping like the euro portrays it could be then I don't think snow accumulating will be a huge problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MDW is well outside downtown and even ORD (also outside downtown) is 41. The 43 is legit. I think hes referring to the fact that if 4 degrees above normal is a fullon torch, then torch has completely lost its meaning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 looks like I've been bumped Tuesday Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 36. Breezy, with a east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible. Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 32. Breezy, with a north northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Very interesting. I think Gino made that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think hes referring to the fact that if 4 degrees above normal is a fullon torch, then torch has completely lost its meaning. ahhh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I can guarantee you that is way overdone here, not so sure about Chicago though. No way we get over 0.6" imo. Local mets already going 1-3", with all of the precip being snow. seems that way down here as well. Nearly .9" after the 850's drop below zero. The last time I followed euro short range qpf numbers was the Dec26th event and it over did those quite a bit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Very interesting. I think Gino made that call. Sounds like the Euro delivered from earlier WITH REGARD TO THE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TO GOING HEADLINES PLANNED THIS MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WITH REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DURING TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH 2M TEMPS AND SNOW PACK WITH INITIALIZATION OF SNOW COVER THIS MORNING SHOWING NEARLY THE ENTIRE STATE OF INDIANA COVERED WITH SNOW ALMOST TO THE OHIO RIVER...WHICH VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS VERY LITTLE SNOW REMAINING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SOUTH OF I-80 OR ANYWHERE BUT THE MICHIGAN BORDER IN INDIANA. PROGGED 2M TEMPS TOMORROW SHOW A SHARP GRADIENT RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF WHERE THE MODEL INCORRECTLY ASSUMES THE EDGE OF THE SNOW PACK IS WHICH RAISES SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT HOW COLD PROGGED 2M TEMPS ARE TOMORROW AND THE RESULTANT PRECIP TYPE OVER OUR CWA AND ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHERE THAT TYPE IS SNOW. WOULD LIKE TO GET A LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF 12Z MODEL DATA INCLUDING THE ECMWF BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS WITH REGARDS TO THE WATCH HEADLINE...BUT AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT OUR CHANCES OF REACHING WARNING CRITERIA ARE VERY LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WATCH AREA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW DOES EXIST AND ANY TIME YOU GET CONVECTIVE SNOW (WITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING) ALL BETS ARE OFF WITH REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT WOULD SEEM MUCH MUCH MORE LIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WATCH AREA WILL END UP WITH LESS THAN 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW THAN IT WILL WITH 6 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO DATA AND WILL AIM TO HAVE ANY CHANGES TO WSW OUT BY 2000-2030Z AND NEW AFD BY 2100Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 be nice if it started a little closer to sunset.. If its ripping like the euro portrays it could be then I don't think snow accumulating will be a huge problem. +1. That would be a win. Lake influence is definitely present here. Watching the clouds trends tonight will be critical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 As a refresher...24 and 48 hour model QPF verification scores for the Midwest region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 for me Tuesday: Snow. High near 34. Breezy, with a east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 6 inches possible. Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My grid forecast: Tonight: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Blustery, with a east northeast wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Tuesday: Snow, mainly after noon. High near 34. Breezy, with a east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Tuesday Night: Snow. Low around 29. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 34. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 temps also trended a bit colder for YYZ, although still marginal. Resembles that Dec 1992 storm, Ottawa guy pulled up. Temperatures were marginal with that storm but regions north of 401 picked up 16-20" from that monster Now i cant speak for YYZ because it only shows day 1 of that storm lool, the other day seems to be missing..... I rather analyze the 0z models tonight before trying to paint a better picture and settle with a conclusion by 12z runs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 If anything, the 12z Euro took the smallest jump nw with the band at 36hr. Slighty better from cycloneville to RFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My grid: · Tuesday: Snow, mainly after 9am. High near 36. Breezy, with a east northeast wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. · Tuesday Night: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Blustery, with a north northeast wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. · Wednesday: Snow likely. Cloudy, with a high near 35. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Call me crazy but I kinda like the 4-6" call for the Chicago area for tomorrow. Between uncertainty on precip totals and how much gets lost with melting, it seems like a reasonable compromise. Can always nudge upward if it looks as though something like the Euro is on the right track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12z RGEM keeps most of Southern Ontario except a small portion of Niagara all snow for this event. Seems to be quite a bit of agreement with that between GFS and from what I have heard the Euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 4.8 IMBY final call EDIT: fwiw, tossing the first tenth or so of the initial slug QPF and all wraparound model accums given warm surface temps. looking like the new hotness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 If we're showing off p&c forecasts...for my hood. Tonight: A chance of snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 4am, then freezing rain and sleet likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. Blustery, with a east northeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday: Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 7am, then rain or freezing rain between 7am and 10am, then rain after 10am. High near 36. Breezy, with a east wind 13 to 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Tuesday Night: Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 30. East wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12z RGEM keeps most of Southern Ontario except a small portion of Niagara all snow for this event. Seems to be quite a bit of agreement with that between GFS and from what I have heard the Euro as well. Brett Anderson on twitter says the latest euro gives Toronto 14" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My final call. I'm going to go with 3 inches max in Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 LOT updates te wsw to include text about uncertainty... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 155 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013 potentially heavy snow and strong winds to affect northern il on tuesday... ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>022-260400- /O.EXT.KLOT.WS.A.0003.130226T1800Z-130227T0300Z/ WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE IL-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-DUPAGE-COOK- LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCKFORD...BELVIDERE...WOODSTOCK... WAUKEGAN...OREGON...DIXON...DEKALB...AURORA...WHEATON...CHICAGO... OTTAWA...OSWEGO...MORRIS...JOLIET 155 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013 Winter storm watch now in effect from tuesday afternoon through tuesday evening... * timing, wet snow is likely tuesday afternoon into early tuesday evening, and snow may be heavy at times. precipitation may start as rain or a rain, snow, sleet mix. * snow accumulation, there is a higher than usual amount of uncertainty with respect to snow accumulation. it appears as though several inches of accumulation are probable, with at least some limited threat for localized accumulations of 6 or more inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Brett Anderson on twitter says the latest euro gives Toronto 14" of snow When you take a p-type blend from 12z RGEM...Euro...GFS...all of the GTA to Hamilton to KW stays all snow with significant totals. Will likely be a heavier(higher water content) snow than what we saw on the 8th...combined with stronger winds. Could have a more significant impact than the storm on the 8th. Only time will tell though. Curious if EC will go Winter Storm Watch at 330pm...having my doubts but they are quite good at surprising us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 rush hour weenie band for my bus ride home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory for SWMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 /O.UPG.KGRR.WS.A.0003.130226T1700Z-130227T1100Z/ /O.NEW.KGRR.WW.Y.0009.130226T1800Z-130227T1100Z/ ALLEGAN-BARRY-EATON-INGHAM-VAN BUREN-KALAMAZOO-CALHOUN-JACKSON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLLAND...HASTINGS...CHARLOTTE... LANSING...SOUTH HAVEN...KALAMAZOO...BATTLE CREEK...JACKSON 308 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND RAPIDS HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TUESDAY TO 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. HAZARDOUS WEATHER... * SNOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SLEET COULD ACCOMPANY THE ONSET OF THE SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY. * SNOW MAY BE BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH SNOWFALL RATES GREATER THAN AN INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES. WINDS WILL GUST OVER 25 MPH AT TIMES. * MOST LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY SEE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW. ISOLATED AREAS COULD SEE GREATER THAN 6 INCHES FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. IMPACTS... * VISIBILITIES COULD BE GREATLY REDUCED DUE TO SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME SLIPPERY FOR THE TUESDAY EVENING AND WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTES. * WET HEAVY SNOW COULD CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES AND/OR TREE BRANCHES TO BREAK. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... * THE MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REMINDS MOTORISTS TO ADJUST SPEEDS BASED ON THE CONDITIONS... AND TO TAKE IT SLOW IN ICE AND SNOW. * WEATHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON LINE AT WWW.READY.GOV/WINTER AND HTTP://GO.USA.GOV/5OG. && $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 rush hour weenie band for my bus ride home Chicago gets OWNED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z NAM tries to flip LAF to snow around 18z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.