hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTX has me down for 5-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro again with over 1" qpf at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 strange to see the euro with the big qpf modeled for most part with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro again with over 1" qpf at ORD Peoria, IL please, and is it all snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 uc h better.. Me gusta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro solid as a rock. .75"+ over Chicago metro at 36hr. Almost identical at 30/36hr compared to 0z run. Reading the threads before the 2/8-2/9 blizzard back east, that system also had tons of convection in its developing stages. Several knowledgeable mets on the New England and NYC forums pointed out that when the GFS shifted way east with less precip at the last minute while the Euro held serve that the Euro does a much better job parameterizing convection and to trust its solution more than the GFS. Perhaps something similar is in play here and can help explain the Euro's better consistency with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Alek/Geos...let me be the first to congratulate you both. Best regards, The NAM. 2:25 12z NAM 60 QPF.gif 4-8" in my grid right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro again with over 1" qpf at ORD What does it have for GRR? Does it fill in the precip gap over western lower the GFS and NAM/WRF keep showing? Macomb county looks pretty solid in any case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like a slightly larger area of 0.75-1.00"QPF for the 18-0z period for Chicago, if that's even believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I know MKE forced LOT's hand last night with the WSW, but it's nice to see that Gino and the gang were correct in thinking this wouldn't hit warning criteria. How cool would it have been to see LOT be the only area not to post a WSW and be correct? Nice of MKE to help them out with the right call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like a slightly larger area of 0.75-1.00"QPF for the 18-0z period for Chicago, if that's even believable. Does that extend down towards Peoria, IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DPA with 1.19" TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.2 -1.2 1006 78 97 0.09 546 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.3 -5.3 1004 95 97 0.81 540 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.3 -4.3 1004 95 91 0.16 540 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB -0.2 -5.5 1005 93 97 0.04 540 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.0 -5.6 1007 88 95 0.04 540 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB -0.3 -5.1 1010 88 96 0.03 542 534 THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.4 -6.6 1012 91 79 0.02 544 535 ORD with 1.24" TUE 18Z 26-FEB 0.7 -1.5 1006 76 99 0.06 546 542 WED 00Z 27-FEB 0.4 -5.1 1004 96 96 0.86 540 537 WED 06Z 27-FEB 0.4 -4.2 1003 96 85 0.17 540 537 WED 12Z 27-FEB 0.2 -5.4 1004 94 97 0.04 539 536 WED 18Z 27-FEB 0.4 -5.5 1006 89 96 0.05 540 535 THU 00Z 28-FEB -0.1 -5.2 1009 89 92 0.04 542 534 THU 06Z 28-FEB -0.1 -6.7 1011 92 77 0.02 544 535 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Reading the threads before the 2/8-2/9 blizzard back east, that system also had tons of convection in its developing stages. Several knowledgeable mets on the New England and NYC forums pointed out that when the GFS shifted way east with less precip at the last minute while the Euro held serve that the Euro does a much better job parameterizing convection and to trust its solution more than the GFS. Perhaps something similar is in play here and can help explain the Euro's better consistency with this system. That's true. The EURO usually has a very good handle on whats going on, especially with convective feedback. Hoping that pulls through for the win on this system. It's been steady, not up and down like the other ensembles, and conveniently enough, has the most QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like a slightly larger area of 0.75-1.00"QPF for the 18-0z period for Chicago, if that's even believable. where is your contest calls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 where is your contest calls? I would rather make personal calls here, I am kind of leery about making these contest calls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Excellent heavy weight showdown between the GFS and Euro brewing. Euro showing a 6-7" hit for a few runs in a row now with the GFS around 2-3. Reality will probably end up somewhere in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 https://www.facebook.com/video/embed?video_id=569472396397996" AMARILLO, TX--DAMN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I would rather make personal calls here, I am kind of leery about making these contest calls. pooosy - its just for fun dude lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Not buying the Euro. Gonna ride the American models for this one. 2-5 for LOT CWA, final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 2-10" for ORD. Final call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 2-10" for ORD. Final call. hoosier take over your pc? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Reading the threads before the 2/8-2/9 blizzard back east, that system also had tons of convection in its developing stages. Several knowledgeable mets on the New England and NYC forums pointed out that when the GFS shifted way east with less precip at the last minute while the Euro held serve that the Euro does a much better job parameterizing convection and to trust its solution more than the GFS. Perhaps something similar is in play here and can help explain the Euro's better consistency with this system. Yeah I've been thinking about that storm. It's a big red flag that the Euro has been on the wetter end. What a tough storm...not only do you have the precip discrepancies but you are also dealing with marginal temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 hoosier take over your pc? Maybe. Really though, this could go boom or bust. Best model in the world ups the boom part...hard to ignore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 pooosy - its just for fun dude lol. I'm waiting until tonight after the game to make my call, perhaps it will affect my final calls as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 2-10" for ORD. Final call. safe call! Atleast you won't bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Does that extend down towards Peoria, IL? Not in a 6hr period, but total QPF is probably not that much less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Atleast you won't bust lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm waiting until tonight after the game to make my call, perhaps it will affect my final calls as well. why bother that late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I have faith in at least 2" for Chicago. If not, then I won't look at another winter system this year. I will wait for severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 why bother that late. That would be when most members' final calls will be anyway. I'm not taking an early stab at such a "helter swelter" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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