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February 25-27 Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Euro solid as a rock. .75"+ over Chicago metro at 36hr. Almost identical at 30/36hr compared to 0z run.

Reading the threads before the 2/8-2/9 blizzard back east, that system also had tons of convection in its developing stages. Several knowledgeable mets on the New England and NYC forums pointed out that when the GFS shifted way east with less precip at the last minute while the Euro held serve that the Euro does a much better job parameterizing convection and to trust its solution more than the GFS. Perhaps something similar is in play here and can help explain the Euro's better consistency with this system.

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I know MKE forced LOT's hand last night with the WSW, but it's nice to see that Gino and the gang were correct in thinking this wouldn't hit warning criteria. How cool would it have been to see LOT be the only area not to post a WSW and be correct?

 

Nice of MKE to help them out with the right call.

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DPA with 1.19"

 

 

 

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.2    -1.2    1006      78      97    0.09     546     542    WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.3    -5.3    1004      95      97    0.81     540     537    WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.3    -4.3    1004      95      91    0.16     540     537    WED 12Z 27-FEB  -0.2    -5.5    1005      93      97    0.04     540     536    WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.0    -5.6    1007      88      95    0.04     540     535    THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.3    -5.1    1010      88      96    0.03     542     534    THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.4    -6.6    1012      91      79    0.02     544     535    
 

ORD with 1.24"

TUE 18Z 26-FEB   0.7    -1.5    1006      76      99    0.06     546     542    WED 00Z 27-FEB   0.4    -5.1    1004      96      96    0.86     540     537    WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.4    -4.2    1003      96      85    0.17     540     537    WED 12Z 27-FEB   0.2    -5.4    1004      94      97    0.04     539     536    WED 18Z 27-FEB   0.4    -5.5    1006      89      96    0.05     540     535    THU 00Z 28-FEB  -0.1    -5.2    1009      89      92    0.04     542     534    THU 06Z 28-FEB  -0.1    -6.7    1011      92      77    0.02     544     535   
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Reading the threads before the 2/8-2/9 blizzard back east, that system also had tons of convection in its developing stages. Several knowledgeable mets on the New England and NYC forums pointed out that when the GFS shifted way east with less precip at the last minute while the Euro held serve that the Euro does a much better job parameterizing convection and to trust its solution more than the GFS. Perhaps something similar is in play here and can help explain the Euro's better consistency with this system.

That's true.

The EURO usually has a very good handle on whats going on, especially with convective feedback. Hoping that pulls through for the win on this system. It's been steady, not up and down like the other ensembles, and conveniently enough, has the most QPF :weenie:

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Reading the threads before the 2/8-2/9 blizzard back east, that system also had tons of convection in its developing stages. Several knowledgeable mets on the New England and NYC forums pointed out that when the GFS shifted way east with less precip at the last minute while the Euro held serve that the Euro does a much better job parameterizing convection and to trust its solution more than the GFS. Perhaps something similar is in play here and can help explain the Euro's better consistency with this system.

Yeah I've been thinking about that storm. It's a big red flag that the Euro has been on the wetter end. What a tough storm...not only do you have the precip discrepancies but you are also dealing with marginal temps.

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