YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12z GFS seems to hint at some lake enhancement around western Lake Ontario. Will have to see if that verifies. Looking good right now for much of the GTA though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Party at Alek's place snow60.gif That's pretty nice. Just looked at NAM thermal profiles...there's a couple of warm layers at hour 30 right before precip begins, namely 800-900mb. This leads me to believe that these snowfall maps may not be so accurate, but we'll see.If the Euro holds steady, I may slightly up my call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think our avg snowfall for Morch is 7" Must be close to yours also.. I think we both have just about as equal chances once we hit March but wtf do I know and I trust your knowledge of climo. 7" here as well in March but almost never anything over 4" from one fall beyond March 15th. I'm sure you've got a couple of memorable April snowstorms. Nada here (1 ice storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MKX going with a WWA for MKE, RAC and ENW. Calling for 3-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What's this about kdubbs? You're going to get raped with snow. Essentially another dream run of the 12Z GFS for KW and Guelph. 40cm in my backyard! This storm will definitely be higher impact. Heavier snow + gusts to at least 60km/h... I can see the power going out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Essentially another dream run of the 12Z GFS for KW and Guelph. 40cm in my backyard! This storm will definitely be higher impact. Heavier snow + gusts to at least 60km/h... I can see the power going out. Wow that is truly an awesome run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still sticking with my conservative numbers until it becomes obvious that the models aren't going to bust too cold with 2m temps. (generally 3" near Lake, 8" near Steeles Ave, and a gradient in between.) That looks beautiful, lol, wow! Whats your preliminary thoughts Canuck? This wet snow could cause quite more damage than the previous storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Essentially another dream run of the 12Z GFS for KW and Guelph. 40cm in my backyard! This storm will definitely be higher impact. Heavier snow + gusts to at least 60km/h... I can see the power going out. With the GFS now spitting out those totals for northwest Indiana, I think LOT will upgrade to warnings with the afternoon package, and include its Indiana counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 With the GFS now spitting out those totals for northwest Indiana, I think LOT will upgrade to warnings with the afternoon package, and include its Indiana counties. He's using the cm graphic, which makes the map weeniefied by a factor of 2.54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Essentially another dream run of the 12Z GFS for KW and Guelph. 40cm in my backyard! This storm will definitely be higher impact. Heavier snow + gusts to at least 60km/h... I can see the power going out. Just wanted to point out that map is in cm, not inches (which I didn't notice at first), so fellow Americans beware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 He's using the cm graphic, which makes the map weeniefied by a factor of 2.54.Even so, those are 6+ amounts in northwest Indiana that weren't there before. The axis of the heaviest snows in Chicagoland has shifted slightly southeast to now encompass those two Indiana counties (Porter and Lake I think?).You are guys are gonna do super up there though. Take pictures please!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Just wanted to point out that map is in cm, not inches (which I didn't notice at first), so fellow Americans beware. SNEAKY CANADIANS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 He's using the cm graphic, which makes the map weeniefied by a factor of 2.54. Yes sorry I went all Canadian on that post there. Starting to get a little too excited haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Even so, those are 6+ amounts in northwest Indiana that weren't there before. The axis of the heaviest snows in Chicagoland has shifted slightly southeast to now encompass those two Indiana counties (Porter and Lake I think?). You are guys are gonna do super up there though. Take pictures please!! Lake/Porter are arguably one of the tougher calls in the LOT cwa. If there's not a delay in the changeover then they could get hit pretty good. Or put it this way, they may not get much less than areas in the current watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is there some credence to the thinking that hi res models like the 4km nam or rgem may do better with the mesoscale aspects to this system like dynamic cooling and the convective nature of the snow? Sent from my PC36100 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still sticking with my conservative numbers until it becomes obvious that the models aren't going to bust too cold with 2m temps. (generally 3" near Lake, 8" near Steeles Ave, and a gradient in between.) From BUF: "BY TUESDAY NIGHT...LOW STATIC STABILITY COUPLED WITH THE FORCING AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SIGNIFICANTPRECIPITATION RATES WITHIN THE MAIN DEFORMATION ZONE. THIS PROCESSWILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SUFFICIENT COOLING OF THE LOW LEVELS AND WESHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHTERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN TIER...UPPER GENESEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERNFINGER LAKES. A PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL IS NOT OUT OF THEQUESTION...ESPECIALLY LOOKING AT THE SLIGHTLY COLDER ECMWFSOUNDINGS SHOWING A DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER IN THE 0C TO -5C RANGELIKELY SUPPORTIVE OF GOOD AGGREGATION. THE WARMER GFS WOULD BEMORE SUPPORTIVE OF MIXED PRECIPITATION DURING THE SAME TIME FRAMEWHICH WOULD GREATLY LIMIT SNOWFALL POTENTIAL...WITH EVEN SOMESUGGESTION OF NO SNOWFALL AT ALL.CONFIDENCE IN HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT AT THIS POINT ARE RELATIVELYLOW. THIS IS DUE TO THE EXISTING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY WITHRESPECT TO NOT ONLY THE LOCATION OF THE STRONGEST MID LEVELDEFORMATION ZONE...BUT ALSO HOW PROGRESSIVE THE FORCING WILL BETHROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW YORK. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIALFOR WARMER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ALSO RAISING SOME CONCERNSAS TO SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS AS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES MAY BENEEDED TO OVERCOME THE LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER...ESPECIALLY ACROSSTHE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IF THE FORCING IS NOT PROLONGED ENOUGH ORTHE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE NOT SUFFICIENT...LITTLE IF ANYACCUMULATION MAY BE THE RESULT." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still sticking with my conservative numbers until it becomes obvious that the models aren't going to bust too cold with 2m temps. (generally 3" near Lake, 8" near Steeles Ave, and a gradient in between.) Yeah i'm still sticking with my numbers. The models still arent consistent and in fact, I wont come to a conclusion till within 6 hours of the event, alot of uncertainty. This storm would certainly push YYZ numbers over 90cm if it were to bring over 7-8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm not that excited about this one for my back yard. It looks like the QPF is going to hop over the western part of lower MI as energy transfers east. The original defo-band will be slowing down and drying out by the time it pushes into SW lower and the newly developing band will be farther east over the thumb region. I really really doubt there will be more than 4" anywhere in my neck of the woods with no heavy rates and a temperature so close to 32 for the entire event. I'll call 3.5". Bunch of over-hyped crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 7" here as well in March but almost never anything over 4" from one fall beyond March 15th. I'm sure you've got a couple of memorable April snowstorms. Nada here (1 ice storm). My snow storm memory is horrid an I have never studied or researched our climo and storms of past. I'm just here for the free beer, camaraderie, and to mooch off the experts meteorology thoughts. April (especially early) can be a pretty miserable month though here with the ice cold lake. I remember a lot more miserable Brewers opening day games than comfortable ones that's for sure.. Putting a retractable roof is the smartest thing since sliced bread beer this city has done and will always be in this slow ass behind times city. we've had a couple 6"+ storms in april that I sorta remember in 2000 and 2007. 2nd half of March and April snow storms have to be pretty much a dam lucky thing once you get into the tropics here and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MKX going with a WWA for MKE, RAC and ENW. Calling for 3-5" can't be upset with that if the forecast verifies.. That's like a 6-10" storm in this pos winter for big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 LOT update: WITH REGARD TO THE WINTER WEATHER ON TUESDAY...NO CHANGES TOGOING HEADLINES PLANNED THIS MORNING. UNCERTAINTY REMAINSEXCEPTIONALLY HIGH WITH REGARDS TO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL DURINGTUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE WITH 2M TEMPS AND SNOW PACKWITH INITIALIZATION OF SNOW COVER THIS MORNING SHOWING NEARLY THEENTIRE STATE OF INDIANA COVERED WITH SNOW ALMOST TO THE OHIORIVER...WHICH VISIBLE IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS VERY LITTLE SNOWREMAINING OVER EASTERN ILLINOIS SOUTH OF I-80 OR ANYWHERE BUT THEMICHIGAN BORDER IN INDIANA. PROGGED 2M TEMPS TOMORROW SHOW A SHARPGRADIENT RIGHT AT THE EDGE OF WHERE THE MODEL INCORRECTLY ASSUMESTHE EDGE OF THE SNOW PACK IS WHICH RAISES SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT HOWCOLD PROGGED 2M TEMPS ARE TOMORROW AND THE RESULTANT PRECIP TYPEOVER OUR CWA AND ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WHERE THAT TYPE IS SNOW.WOULD LIKE TO GET A LOOK AT THE FULL SUITE OF 12Z MODEL DATAINCLUDING THE ECMWF BEFORE MAKING ANY DECISIONS WITH REGARDS TO THEWATCH HEADLINE...BUT AT THIS POINT THINKING THAT OUR CHANCES OFREACHING WARNING CRITERIA ARE VERY LOW ACROSS MOST OF THE WATCHAREA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TOMORROW DOES EXIST AND ANY TIME YOU GETCONVECTIVE SNOW (WITH OR WITHOUT LIGHTNING) ALL BETS ARE OFF WITHREGARDS TO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT WOULD SEEM MUCH MUCH MORELIKELY THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE WATCH AREA WILL END UP WITH LESSTHAN 3 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW THAN IT WILLWITH 6 INCHES. WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO DATA AND WILL AIM TO HAVEANY CHANGES TO WSW OUT BY 2000-2030Z AND NEW AFD BY 2100Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My snow storm memory is horrid an I have never studied or researched our climo and storms of past. I'm just here for the free beer, camaraderie, and to mooch off the experts meteorology thoughts. Apri (especially earlyl can be) a pretty miserable month though here with the ice cold lake. I remember a lot more miserable Brewers opening day games than comfortable ones that's for sure.. Putting a retractable roof is the smartest thing since sliced bread this city has had and will always be in this slow ass behind times city. we've had a couple 6"+ storms in april that I sorta remember in 2000 and 2007. Late March and April snow storms have to be pretty much a dam lucky thing once you get into the tropics here and south. What is your location? it can snow here till late April if the pattern is setup right,. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What is your location? it can snow here till late April if the pattern is setup right,. Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Milwaukee. What type of wind direction you guys need up there to get lake effect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 To redeem myself here in the 12Z GFS snowfall map in INCHES Compared with the 12Z NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Essentially another dream run of the 12Z GFS for KW and Guelph. 40cm in my backyard! This storm will definitely be higher impact. Heavier snow + gusts to at least 60km/h... I can see the power going out. Woo! That'd be the day Seen EC bumped the SWS to 15cm for KW ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Props to LOT. They seem to really be nailing this one and considering every shortcoming of this event. Snow melting away here. Gonna need a cold night tonight to cool down surfaces. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Based on all the models and the best models only painting 6" across small lollipops of Lower Michigan, I'm going to say much of the area will be switched to a WWA for snow totals 2-4/3-5" with 6" locally.STILL, this will be significant to what we're used to in the past 2 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Milwaukee. My snow storm memory is horrid an I have never studied or researched our climo and storms of past. I'm just here for the free beer, camaraderie, and to mooch off the experts meteorology thoughts. April (especially early) can be a pretty miserable month though here with the ice cold lake. I remember a lot more miserable Brewers opening day games than comfortable ones that's for sure.. Putting a retractable roof is the smartest thing since sliced bread beer this city has done and will always be in this slow ass behind times city. we've had a couple 6"+ storms in april that I sorta remember in 2000 and 2007. 2nd half of March and April snow storms have to be pretty much a dam lucky thing once you get into the tropics here and south. GRR got a surprise 13.8" of cement March 2-3 2002 on a storm initially advertized as a "wintry mix". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What type of wind direction you guys need up there to get lake effect? NE is nice and a whole hell of a lot of luck to get anything decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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