Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I've seen nice fat flakes falling at a good rate not accumulate one bit because of warm surface temps. I'm concerned about mixing but sub 5:1 ratios is a greater concern. Unless the wettest models verfiy...this has major bust potential. This storm has such a big bust potential... it's unreal. Has anyone looked at the 12z WRF?? Not good... that's all I'm going to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DVN has a good overnight AFD, a must read IMO. Even throwing out the word "bust" in response to where this thing eventually sets up. THE SITUATION IS THIS...THE POTENTIAL FOR THE EVENT TO BUST IS GROWING RAPIDLY...BUT UNTIL WE KNOW THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM FOR CERTAIN...WE CANNOT RULE OUT...OR EVEN GREATLY DIMINISH THE POTENTIAL FOR A HEAVY WET SNOW EVENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF THE CWA. SOMETIMES THERE IS NO CORRELATION BETWEEN AN EVENTS POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANCE...AND THE CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL OCCUR. A WATCH CONTINUES TO BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO REPRESENT THIS EVENT FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. The people at the DVN NWS must be pulling their hair out. I'm not sure if I'll see any snow from this lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For those who want to look... in lower Michigan.http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Of all the models that will make me worry, the RGEM and a miss south just isn't going to cut it. I'm shook but not that shook Yeah, I wouldn't get shook at all to what it says. Just another solution. 12z NAM looks like it'll continue its northwest look...so probably good for the DVN and WI folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Temp issues are the thing, even if snow is the predominant precipitation type. I'd lean lower because of that, no doubt about it. But like you said, intensity will be critical. Hopefully there are some good surprises in store for some, because there'll most likely be some bad surprises for a few. The euro staying wet is the curveball...I really want to ride the GFS as it has been drier and more realistic with bands here all winter. And even the wet NAM is only 3-4" or so if you exclude the wraparound which is a lock not to stick. LOT seems to have a good handle and will probably flip to a WWA this afternoon. 12z NAM coming in warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For those who want to look... in lower Michigan. http://hp6.wright-weather.com/wrf_nmmeast-radar-loop_1hour.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero26800 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM trying to confirm a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This thing is coming full circle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Welp, 12z NAM gonna give up the far northwest outlier solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Welp, 12z NAM gonna give up the far northwest outlier solution. We just fumbled the ball on 3rd and 5....but it's late Feb and we're entering 4 down territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Welp, 12z NAM gonna give up the far northwest outlier solution. Thanks for the confirmation. I thought I was seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Trying to thread a moving needle right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Trying to thread a moving needle right now. pretty much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Total QPF comparison through 0z Wed. 0z NAM 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM still good for N IL. SE WI... Anyway, as discussed by some offices...seems the low is gonna ride convection to the east. Probably still not done with model moves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM still good for N IL. SE WI... Anyway, as discussed by some offices...seems the low is gonna ride convection to the east. Probably still not done with model moves. micro weenie band hangs on...this snowstorm is on thin ice for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Definitely a more prominent coastal as of 42 hours. Less slotting/temp issues here in Toronto this run I think. Best QPF might actually slide just SE if you can believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 micro weenie band hangs on...this snowstorm is on thin ice for sure "Snowstorm" still looks solid for NE IL. West and north...dicey. Dot of 0.75" total right over your head on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 essentially a shutout for Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Almost time for Mke to punt, NAM finally latching onto something more realistic although it looks like its still overdoing lake enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 "Snowstorm" still looks solid for NE IL. West and north...dicey. Dot of 0.75" total right over your head on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Definitely a more prominent coastal as of 42 hours. Less slotting/temp issues here in Toronto this run I think. Best QPF might actually slide just SE if you can believe it. All this worry of temp issues lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MSN went from 6"+ on the 0z run to flurries/sprinkles on the 12z run. DBQ 6"+ to smoking cirrus. That's consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 lol. If you can still go back to KW, go. It's gonna be the bomb over there. And yeah, the worst should be over by 7pm Weds. What's this about kdubbs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Alek/Geos...let me be the first to congratulate you both. Best regards, The NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What's this about kdubbs? You're going to get raped with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 If the GFS follows suit with the NAM, it's game over for Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 RPM model showing a 7"+ on this morning's WGN news. Not buying it. I would bet, area wide, snow totals are from 2.5 to 3" with some areas maybe getting close to 4. Temps are just way too marginal for this to be any more than a rain-to-snow-to-rain event. I would not be at all surprised if the rain wins out in some areas around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM is a torch here for the backside precipitation. Mid to upper 30's. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Thinkin' DTX goes with WWAs south of I-94 EDIT: lower row of counties Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.