Brewers Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 5.1" FWA: 3.4" MKE: 4.5" ORD: 5.0" Toronto (downtown): 8.1" Bonus question: total snowfall for Kansas City (MCI) for Feb 25-27: 11.9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 5.9" FWA: 3.0" MKE: 5.1" ORD: 3.7" Toronto (downtown): 8.7"MCI Feb 25-27: 14.4"There reason I have ORD so relatively low compared to DTW is because the bulk of precipitation from this next storm looks to fall during the daylight hours, whereas at DTW most of it will likely occur during the late evening into the overnight hours.Also, going fairly big for KC, I think they're going to get the big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think people aren't realizing this is through March 2nd and not just Tuesday/Wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think people aren't realizing this is through March 2nd and not just Tuesday/Wednesday Yeah, I agree. It may not snow through the 2nd for everyone, but this contest includes "extended" wrap around stuff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I think people aren't realizing this is through March 2nd and not just Tuesday/Wednesday Yeah, I agree. It may not snow through the 2nd for everyone, but this contest includes "extended" wrap around stuff too. I can't speak for others but I was including the entire week. It might seem a little low but I'm not currently anticipating, at the moment, huge things from the next storm system, mostly because of marginal surface temps. I feel like this is going to be extremely hard to accurately forecast though, I could easily be way lowballing everyone especially if we get another decent system before March 2nd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 6.8" FWA: 3.0" MKE: 4.5" ORD: 6.5" Toronto (downtown): 4.8" Bonus question: total snowfall for Kansas City (MCI) for Feb 25-27: 11.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 is the deadline 11:59 central or eastern?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 is the deadline 11:59 central or eastern?? Sorry. We'll do central time. But I'll probably take entries through tomorrow morning...whenever I get up. EDIT: tomorrow morning it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Sorry. We'll do central time. But I'll probably take entries through tomorrow morning...whenever I get up. Thanks, and by waiting for tomorrow morning, we would get the 25/0z run of the euro as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Downtown Toronto is going to get massacred by uhi/Lk Ontario/lack of latitude/lack of elevation. As it stands right now, half a foot there would astonish me. Nipher or not, the amounts people are posting are more likely at YYZ. It's going to be close. I think heavy precip rates and strong dynamics could offset the negative factors (uhi, Lake Ontario, etc). April 11th, 1999 (2.8"), Dec. 14th, 2001 (3.8"), April 2nd, 2002 (4.3") and part A of the Feb. 6th, 2008 (3.5") storm are prime examples of where the temperature was 33 or 34 downtown and the snow sticked to the ground. My guess of 4.8" is very conservative. It could possibly be higher. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Thanks, and by waiting for tomorrow morning, we would get the 25/0z run of the euro as well. Yep. One more final "piece". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 8.2 FWA:3.0 MKE: 5.0 ORD: 4.8 Toronto (downtown): 8.0 Bonus question: total snowfall for Kansas City (MCI) for Feb 25-27 12.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 7.4" FWA: 3.1" MKE: 4.3" ORD: 6.3" YYZ: 8.1" MCI: 11.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 6.1 FWA: 4.0 MKE: 4.3 ORD: 4.9 Toronto (downtown): 7.8 MCI: 13.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 6.2" FWA: 4.5" MKE: 7.8" ORD: 6.7" Toronto (downtown): 7.0" Bonus question: total snowfall for Kansas City (MCI) for Feb 25-27: 15.2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 3.0" FWA: 2.0" MKE: 2.0" ORD: 3.0" Toronto (downtown): 3.5" Bonus question: total snowfall for Kansas City (MCI) for Feb 25-27: 10.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 3.0" FWA: 2.0" MKE: 2.0" ORD: 3.0" Toronto (downtown): 3.5" Bonus question: total snowfall for Kansas City (MCI) for Feb 25-27: 10.0" lulz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 3.0" FWA: 2.0" MKE: 2.0" ORD: 3.0" Toronto (downtown): 3.5" Bonus question: total snowfall for Kansas City (MCI) for Feb 25-27: 10.0" Lol gotta stay in character. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 9.3 FWA: 6.4 MKE: 8.4 ORD: 9.1 Toronto (downtown): 6.1 Bonus question: total snowfall for Kansas City (MCI) for Feb 25-27: 17.4 Used a blend of the 60 hr 4km High Res Nam, the Reg Nam and the Euro. My flyer on this is Toronto as the Euro has zero back up. I also went with the more conservative NAM when it came to ORD, weighted that forecast 70/30 Nam vs Euro, for most of this I threw the GFS under the bus. This is going to be a whopper of a storm as it moves out, I think the GFS weakens it to quickly. At 26/0z both the Euro and the Nam pick up a slug of moisture off the gulf over the New Orleans area, the GFS kicks that out east of there buy about 150 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I got another weenie to sink with when the nam fails.. nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I got another weenie to sink with when the nam fails.. nice. remember my forecast is a blend of the Euro and the Nam, If the Nam fails, than by extension the Euro will also fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 remember my forecast is a blend of the Euro and the Nam, If the Nam fails, than by extension the Euro will also fail. Yup and I'd love that blend long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 3.8" FWA: 0.8" MKE: 2.3" ORD: 8.5" Toronto (downtown): 11.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 DTW: 3.8" FWA: 0.8" MKE: 2.3" ORD: 8.5" Toronto (downtown): 11.4" wat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 DTW: 3.8" FWA: 0.8" MKE: 2.3" ORD: 8.5" Toronto (downtown): 11.4" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Lakes/OV forum snowfall plumes. DTW: 3.0", 3.0", 3.8", 5.1", 5.5", 5.6", 5.7", 5.8", 5.9", 6.1", 6.2", 6.8", 7.0", 7.0", 7.1", 7.2", 7.4", 7.4", 7.4", 7.5", 7.5", 8.2", 8.5", 8.7", 9.3", 9.5", 10.0" FWA: 0.8", 2.0", 2.4", 2.9", 3.0", 3.0", 3.0", 3.1", 3.4", 4.0", 4.0", 4.1", 4.5", 4.5", 4.5", 4.5", 4.6", 4.8", 5.1", 5.1", 5.1", 5.1", 5.2", 6.4", 6.4", 6.6", 6.9" MKE: 0.5", 2.0", 2.3", 3.4", 4.2", 4.3", 4.3", 4.5", 4.5", 4.5", 4.5", 4.6", 4.9", 4.9", 5.0", 5.1", 5.5", 5.6", 5.8", 5.8", 6.2", 6.4", 6.8", 7.2", 7.7", 7.8", 8.4" ORD: 3.0", 3.7", 4.1", 4.8", 4.9", 4.9", 5.0", 5.0", 5.5", 5.7", 6.0", 6.1", 6.1", 6.2", 6.2", 6.3", 6.4", 6.4", 6.5", 6.5", 6.5", 6.5", 6.7", 6.8", 8.5", 9.0", 9.1" Toronto: 3.5", 4.2", 4.8", 5.0", 6.1", 6.5", 6.7", 7.0", 7.0", 7.8", 7.9", 8.0", 8.1", 8.1", 8.7", 8.8", 8.9", 8.9", 9.0", 9.3", 9.5", 10.0", 10.5", 10.5", 11.4", 13.3", 14.2" MCI: 8.3", 10.0", 11.0", 11.2", 11.4", 11.5", 11.8", 11.9", 11.9", 12.3", 12.5", 12.9", 13.3", 13.3", 13.6", 14.0", 14.2", 14.2", 14.4", 15.0", 15.3", 15.2", 15.6", 17.2", 17.4", 19.8" DTW Mean snowfall: 6.7" Median snowfall: 7.0" FWA Mean snowfall: 4.3" Median snowfall: 4.5" MKE Mean snowfall: 5.1" Median snowfall: 4.9" ORD Mean snowfall: 6.0" Median snowfall: 6.2" Toronto Mean snowfall: 8.3" Median snowfall: 8.1" MCI Mean snowfall: 13.4" Median snowfall: 13.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 ^GLOV Model isn't totally unreasonable....maybe runs a a tad high with QPF but then again what model doesn't Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 ^GLOV Model isn't totally unreasonable....maybe runs a a tad high with QPF but then again what model doesn't The ensembles are all over the place though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 ^GLOV Model isn't totally unreasonable....maybe runs a a tad high with QPF but then again what model doesn't The ensembles are all over the place though. All good comments. But the GLOV plumes mean/median snowfall busted low on the first contest for ORD. Food for thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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