Isopycnic Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Last storm was a total bust even though things were looking good. Granted, I feel better about seeing something (atleast more than the last one) from this storm. 7pm sounding from KRNK already showing warming between 1-3km (~850mb-700mb)but with a wet-bulb cold enough to support snow if precip was to start now. You know, and I'm sure you checked that the HRR and RAP were pretty bone dry about this time Thursday. This one clearly is not-- models have backed off sleet-- so outside the courtesy dry air sleet, I'm not expecting much. Temps are CLEARLY colder this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 As far as I can tell I am only seeing spots rise 2 degrees or less with the heavier cloud cover (Burlington,NC area). 28 Roaring Gap 28 App Ski Mountain 29 Jefferson 29 Dobson, Surry 29 Traphill, Wilkes 29 Reidsville 30 Boone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 As far as I can tell I am only seeing spots rise 2 degrees or less with the heavier cloud cover (Burlington,NC area). 28 Roaring Gap 28 App Ski Mountain 29 Jefferson 29 Dobson, Surry 29 Traphill, Wilkes 29 Reidsville 30 Boone Dobson 29? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 You know, and I'm sure you checked that the HRR and RAP were pretty bone dry about this time Thursday. This one clearly is not-- models have backed off sleet-- so outside the courtesy dry air sleet, I'm not expecting much. Temps are CLEARLY colder this time... I did, but I was having weenie hallucinations/false hopes at the time. I was around 40 degrees around this time on Thursday last week and still got enough precip from that moisture-starved system to get a little sleet and a slight ice glaze. I still think we get something frozen in ROA, but LYH doesn't look like much more than some rain. Current obs: 31.6/22.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Here she comes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 29.1f /. 25.2f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I did, but I was having weenie hallucinations/false hopes at the time. I was around 40 degrees around this time on Thursday last week and still got enough precip from that moisture-starved system to get a little sleet and a slight ice glaze. I still think we get something frozen in ROA, but LYH doesn't look like much more than some rain. Current obs: 31.6/22.6 Yeah, we had some glaze quickly Friday as well. Will be interested to see how this pans out,.. a tad colder, I assumed ROA cooled faster with better precipt rates. Some of the data is bringing it in quicker in LYH-- which could make a difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WFFaithful Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 31 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 NAM is colder...some of these short range models are sick. Surprised nobody is talking about them. hour11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 00z NAM continues with a fairly substantial ice accumulation for my backyard per the meteograms. Pretty darn good agreement the past two runs. 18z: 0.45" 00z: 0.43" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 I know its late in the game...but 0z GFS...WOW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 KGSP latest adjustments to grids for ice accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I know its late in the game...but 0z GFS...WOW? Explain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Explain Looks colder to me and includes slightly bigger area than 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Explain Doesn't look much different than 18z in my opinion.. Maybe a tad warmer. I'm not sure why we're dissecting the GFS this close to the event anyway.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The RAP model is one to watch within the time frame now. It has been very accurate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 New NOAA Hillsborough forecast, too bad it's 11pm or I'd have myself a nice 2-hour delay: A chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet after 4am. Cloudy, with a low around 32. Northeast wind 3 to 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Little or no snow accumulation expected. TuesdayA chance of rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 7am, then rain. The rain could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 42. Northeast wind 7 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If the rain comes down hard latent heat release will cause the freezing rain to turn to plain ole rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 GFMTN down to 23 Other sites around Avery County 23 to 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Coming in much faster...Asheville went from 39 to 34 from light rain/mist. City temps... Boone 29 over 20 Jefferson 28 over 19 North Wilkesboro 34 over 23 Mount Airy 35 over 22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I reached 32.4 about an hour and a half ago. 34.6 now. 35.4 The trend is definitely upward. Just another cold Piedmont rain on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Upslope breaking out...event is starting now. Watch obs to the south. Asheville was at 39 now 33 over 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Down to 29.7* now and still dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Upstate of South Carolina is wet-bulbing...temps near 36 over 32 in Greenville. Believe some of their cold mountains could be at play. Don't have a lot of insight on SC elevation but I notice a few stations are near freezing 2,000ft+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Alchemist Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It started misting at 9:30 with temp at 38.9 here in Saluda. Now light rain and temps have fallen to 33.5. Can't really see but it sounds like a little sleet might be mixing in. So much for setting up my weather station tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
norcarolinian Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 33 over 24 here with rain, sleet and a few snow flakes mixed in here ... radar shows precip blossoming over metro Triad ... was not expecting this so nice surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 33 over 24 here with rain, sleet and a few snow flakes mixed in here ... radar shows precip blossoming over metro Triad ... was not expecting this so nice surprise Ha, yeah, I didn't expect that. I just took a peek and, sure enough, there is a bit of a mix. It shouldn't last long, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Going to bed will wake up at 4:30 to check things out. Greenville/Spartanburg 34 over 32 They seem to be sweating a little bit over this... Near term /through today/... as of 100 am...the latest surface analysis indicates tw temperatures at freezing or below across the advection area and even over the northern foothills. Will monitor the sensible weather over the next few hours as the precipitation shield makes headway into the forecast area. Very light precipitation is noted currently and expect dbz/S to pick up to around 20/25 around 08z-09z across the NC mountains the latest hrrr keeps decent precipitation across the advection area throughout it/S run...which may lend support for a possible upgrade to a warning for freezing rain as long as low level warm air advection doesnt catch up by then. Made minor tweaks to the going grids for T/dew point and winds...pop/wx grids still look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Uhm, I have a 100% chance of snow tomorrow night, WTH? EDIT: they fixed it finally."Tuesday Rain before 5pm, then a chance of snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. High near 63. East wind 11 to 13 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected."I think someone is on drugs @ KCAE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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