NavarreDon Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I am confused about the timing of the precip this is from GSP's WWA: * TIMING...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY 9 TO 10 PM...TRANSITIONING BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. Yet looking at the radar it seems like it will be Tues morning for the start of this. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Beautiful wedge. Looking dangerous for the blue ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Busick Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Wow already down to 32 degrees talk about major temp busts! but it looks like according to radar this is a mid tuesday morning event for the triad might start as some frozen precip before changing to rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm curious about this event. I think it might becoming an event in and around statesville and hickory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I am confused about the timing of the precip this is from GSP's WWA: * TIMING...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY 9 TO 10 PM...TRANSITIONING BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. Yet looking at the radar it seems like it will be Tues morning for the start of this. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php Any thoughts? I definitely agree with you that the precip will not be here anytime soon. I've dropped four degrees in the past hour. My temp now stands at 36.5 over 27. If those skies can stay clear longer, this could be very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Wow already down to 32 degrees talk about major temp busts! but it looks like according to radar this is a mid tuesday morning event for the triad might start as some frozen precip before changing to rain We often get a few degree bump as the clouds thicken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 If this precip comes in around 4 or 5 am, the morning commute could get tricky. Schools should keep an eye on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 34.2/22.5 currently. WB around 30* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Here is what K4CF was talking about from GSP AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC705 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013.SYNOPSIS...NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ATOP OURREGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVEA COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY.&&.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 630 PM...THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK. I WILL UPDATE THET/TD/WINDS TO LATEST OBSERVATIONS.AS OF 545 PM...I WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. LATESTREGIONAL RADAR COMPOSITE INDICATES LITTLE TO NO RETURNS ACROSS THEFORECAST AREA AND ACROSS THE UPSTREAM REGION. THEREFORE...I HAVESLOWED THE ARRIVAL OF CATE POPS UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. THEN...ALLSOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL OCCUR DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS AND EARLY DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE A DRY SLOTARRIVES IN THE AFTERNOON.THE SLOWING OF THE ARRIVAL OF POPS AND SLIGHT QPF FORECAST WILL HAVEAN IMPACT ON THE ICE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. THELATEST FORECAST WILL FEATURE VALUES APPROACHING 0.25 ALONG THE EASTFACING SLOPES OF THE NC NRN MTNS...ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ADJACENTFOOTHILLS AND VALLEY...VALUES WILL REMAIN LESS THAN A TENTH OF ANINCH. THE CURRENT WSW APPEARS WELL PLACED AND TIMED FOR ADVISORYFREEZING RAIN. ONE NOTE...THE SREF GUIDANCE APPEARS VERY HIGH ONFZRA AMOUNTS. THEREFORE...THE SREF PLUMES AND ANY GUIDANCE BASED ONTHE SREF WILL NOT BE CONSIDERED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I am confused about the timing of the precip this is from GSP's WWA: * TIMING...RAIN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN BY 9 TO 10 PM...TRANSITIONING BACK TO RAIN BY MID MORNING TUESDAY. Yet looking at the radar it seems like it will be Tues morning for the start of this. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast.php Any thoughts? Don...KGSP 7:05 pm update now saying that precipitation will now be delayed until midnight and this will affect ice accumulation forecast...now looking at .25" along the east facing slopes of the Blue Ridge and .10" or less elsewhere Tried to copy and paste but somebody at GSP is still using Windows Notepad...geesh...a single line of text a mile long on my first try Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 BurkeWeather has concern for both the escarpment along the High Country and the South Mountains area: @burkewx: Here is one reason I am concerned with icing in the South Mountains and in the NC Mountains. People in the NW... http://t.co/SKW8TxtxnJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 According to the meteogram generator, 18Z GFS is now putting just under 0.90 inches of freezing rain accumulation in Hickory as well as 0.20 inches of sleet. It also has a tenth of an inch of freezing rain for Greensboro, by the way. Once again, the NAM shows nothing for either city. The average of all the models the meteogram is ingesting still turns out to be around 0.40 inches of ZR for Hickory, even after including the zeros from the NAM and the RAP. Could anyone provide a little explanation on how this product works? Does it simply take the raw output from each model and decide whether the precipitation forecast will be SN, IP, ZR, or RN just based off temperatures at different levels of the atmosphere? If so, I would have to imagine that GSP is totally discounting the GFS solution in this case and leaning heavily upon the NAM, otherwise we'd have winter storm warnings out for damaging ice accumulation in the NW piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Worried the mountains may have some power issues. Not to be IMBY all the time but, Surry/Wilkes certainly looks tugged in tonight between cold air seeping out of Glade Valley and we have the Brushy Mountains of southern Wilkes sticking out like a sore thumb. This will be much harder to scurry out compared to the Piedmont areas. I am feeling the mixture...that will include more than just freezing rain here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 31/23 here in Boone, ut ohhhh. We were at 40 at this time with the last event. I feel this is being downplayed greatly for my area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Is there any way to post a scale or something on all of these images you are posting? It would be helpful and add to the potential discussion for others if we knew what you were showing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm sorry, guys. I am an idiot. That was APPARENT temperature, not temperature! I knew something had to be up. Here is the actual temperature at hr 18 and it's near 40F. That makes sense. I just saw the map on Robert's site and there wasn't any zr anywhere close to the triad. I still beleive there will be zr or sleet. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Returns starting to show up where NC SC & GA borders meet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheVille Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Temp down to 36.6/26 here with wetblub of 31.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I've already dropped past the NWS zone forecast low of 33. Looks like some clouds are starting to move into NC and into S VA.. It'll be interesting to see if temps rebound a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The freezing wet-bulb line continues to plunge southward, but my temp actually just rose a few degrees. Maybe the clouds are bringing warmth up from the south, 36.8 over 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Raysweather dragging out the dark purple crayon for ice storm warning criteria in Alleghany, Wilkes, Ashe, Watauga, and far western Surry. https://twitter.com/raysweather/status/306213546402918400/photo/1/large?utm_source=fb&utm_medium=fb&utm_campaign=raysweather&utm_content=306213546402918400 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I've already dropped past the NWS zone forecast low of 33. Looks like some clouds are starting to move into NC and into S VA.. It'll be interesting to see if temps rebound a bit. Yeah, with that event Friday pretty much being a total bust-- this may be sneaky (And the lack of qpf last time PLUS temps) I'm not sure what to think. Models warm things up JUST as precip gets cracking out in my area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah, with that event Friday pretty much being a total bust-- this may be sneaky (And the lack of qpf last time PLUS temps) I'm not sure what to think. Models warm things up JUST as precip gets cracking out in my area.. Last storm was a total bust even though things were looking good. Granted, I feel better about seeing something (atleast more than the last one) from this storm. 7pm sounding from KRNK already showing warming between 1-3km (~850mb-700mb)but with a wet-bulb cold enough to support snow if precip was to start now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrhardin Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I am with the majority of people it seems in that I really don't know what to think either. Obviously the cooler highs and quick drop in temps this evening has made things interesting. I still think for anyone east of the Triad this is not a sufficient set up for anything worthwhile. An anchored high in the NE is key for areas outside of the classic CAD regions to see anything sustained. Someone in the Blue Ridge is going to get plastered with some serious ice accretions, but I think the limited time period will ultimately limit damage. In my experience heavy precipitation and borderline temperatures do not really translate to crippling ice storms. If you are going to have 0.5 in of fzra you either need to have temps below 30, or have precip rates be relatively sustained over a longer period of time. Otherwise the rain seems to run off before it can freeze well. That's also a lot of latent heating to counteract without a sustained feed of cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 26, 2013 Author Share Posted February 26, 2013 Here is your frozen discussion from Raleigh Piedmont folks...advisory was not finalized. Surface wet bulb temperatures hovering near or slightly below freezing across the northwest Piedmont. 18z GFS verified best (nam too warm by 1-2 degrees). Based on projected wet bulb temperatures late tonight/early Tuesday...precipitation over sections of the western and northwest Piedmont may start out as a brief period of sleet or freezing rain before transitioning to all rain. Expect this occurrence to be relatively brief (less than a half hour) and spotty. Due to limited occurrence...feel that an advisory may be overkill. Issuance of Special Weather Statement should handle the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 31.1 in Colfax. Hmmmmmmmm TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I've been stuck at 33.6/25 for a about a couple hours now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I've been stuck at 33.6/25 for a about a couple hours now. I'd say that's a good sign if you want freezing or frozen precip. I figured when the temp stopped falling, it would be because clouds had moved in and the temp would then rise. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Currently IMFY... 29.5f / 25.5f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I reached 32.4 about an hour and a half ago. 34.6 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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