K4CF Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 GSP 12:55 update...still sticking (pardon the pun) with a minor event...even for Avery county There is not a lot of cooling nor low dew point/S associated with this wedge...so precipitation types overnight will remain rain at all locales...except for the higher terrain of the Black Mountains and the northern mountains where periods -fzra will develop in diurnal cooling. Most of these locations wont see sigfnt ice accums...but isolated peaks around Beech Mountain could see a couple tenths of ice as they will experience the longest period of icing before low level warm air advection changes all precipitation to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 37 degrees at nearly 2pm...how am I going to hit 54? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 37 degrees at nearly 2pm...how am I going to hit 54? Here's how...according to Blacksburg's 1pm update Some guidance is suggesting there will be about a four or five hour decrease in the abundance of cloud cover. If this begins soon enough in the late afternoon...temperatures may be able to climb to numbers that are not to far under the latest forecast. Have done an across the board decrease of three degrees for highs today to account for both the increased clouds...and the potential for a bit more sunshine in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 WXII12 in house model hammers Ashe, Watauga, Alleghany, Wilkes from 6am to 10am. Likely much longer in spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It was supposed to be 50 here today and we have barely broken 40 and are under full cloud cover. I wonder if things could get interesting tonight now. Been that way here, too, and I am wondering the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Wow. Look at these probabilities for .25" (warning criteria) ice accumulations tonight!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Birds are at it here. I know its coming now. Blacksburg has 1 hour of all sleet here but I think it will be longer than that. I bet the ground will be white again before we get to the freezing rain. I see what Blacksburg is saying...east Tennessee is in the 50s. But I highly doubt a sunset with partly cloudy skies will help the cause. If fact, that would drop the temps more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Im @ 43o right now and I see that Boone (600' higher than me) is @ 33o...maybe GSP has a better hold on this event than I give them credit for. However, Im in the upslope area rather than the escarpment CAD area of my county. However, Little Switzerland is on the escarpment with a current temp of 36o. I guess we shall see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 One would think we would be at peak heating right now and GSO is sitting with a wet bulb of 33F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well, the nam is coming in wetter. Looks like a qpf max of around 2" in the counties expecting freezing rain. It also looks slightly warmer to my untrained eyes based on contour lines. I hope this isn't 2 inches of freezing rain. It would be "crippling" and I'm not throwing that term around lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My wet bulb is 35! Boo Hoo Hoo... A lot of cold rain is in store for lots of people!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The last two runs of the GFS have temps at Hickory dipping down right to 32 F with quite a bit of precip present. That's obviously the reason for the large values of ZR that it continues to put out for my region. But, 32 F is so close to a cold rain too. By contrast, you can see the NAM model doesn't have temperatures getting below 34 F overnight. Here are current wet-bulb temps too. They look like frozen fail right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Hasn't gotten above 42 in Raleigh and the forecast was 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The last two runs of the GFS have temps at Hickory dipping down right to 32 F with quite a bit of precip present. That's obviously the reason for the large values of ZR that it continues to put out for my region. But, 32 F is so close to a cold rain too. By contrast, you can see the NAM model doesn't have temperatures getting below 34 F overnight. temphky.png Here are current wet-bulb temps too. They look like frozen fail right now: wet-bulb.png I agree with the frozen fail! Some of the mountains will likely get a good bit of Ice,I doubt here in the foohills that will see any freezing rain, I say brief sleet then cold rain... And 33 The air is not nearly as dry as the last event when I had inch of snow... Last event I think I had DP in the middle teens, currently 42/26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I just don't see how that map is right. Looking at current obs Boone is 37 over 24. I am even at 37 over 25. My wet-bulb is 32.4. I'm sure it's a broad-brush treatment of the area, but the map is straight off the SPC pages. GSP has yet to update this afternoon. This is later than normal. Perhaps they are seriously debating what products, if any, to issue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Greer is running late with its AFD...usually the discussions are rather detailed when that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Greer is running late with its AFD...usually the discussions are rather detailed when that happens. RNK is always the last to get their discussions out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 325 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013 .SYNOPSIS... NORTH OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD ATOP OUR REGION FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 2 PM MON...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN APPALACHIANS INDICATES CAD WEDGE ALREADY IN PLACE. STRENGTHENING SFC LOW OVER ARKLATEX REGION WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY TUESDAY...PRODUCING INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE WEDGE. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY GOING INTO THE EVENING. PRECIP CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ON THE LOWER END WITH MEDIOCRE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SEEN ON THE ISENTROPIC SURFACES. HOWEVER THE FLOW IS STRONG AND THE MODELS DO SQUEEZE OUT SOME LIGHT QPF. 850MB LLJ INCREASES TO 50-70KT /STRONGEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS/ LATE TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW ADVANCES AND HEIGHT GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL MAXIMIZE MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND I EXPECT PEAK PRECIP COVERAGE IN THE WEE HOURS TUE MORNING. CATEGORICAL POPS ARE INCLUDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWFA. COLD WEDGE SHOULD ONLY STRENGTHEN WITH THE PRECIP SPREADING IN THIS EVENING SO FAVORED LOW SIDE OF GUIDANCE TEMPS TONIGHT...NEAR RAW NAM/GFS. THIS BRINGS TEMPS INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE CWFA AND NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE...STRENGTH OF THE WINDS...AND THE UPPER SUPPORT ALL WARRANT FAIRLY ROBUST QPF. WITH THE QPF AND TEMPS...PLUS THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM NOSE ABOVE THE WEDGE...THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS COULD SEE SOME ICE ACCUMULATE OVERNIGHT. A WINTER WX ADVY HAS BEEN POSTED. IMPACT WILL BE NEGATED SOMEWHAT BY THE CONTINUING RAINFALL AS TEMPS WARM UP TOMORROW MORNING WHICH SHOULD MELT ANY ICE. STRENGTH OF THE LLJ CONTINUES TO SUPPORT HIGH WIND WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MTNS AS WELL AS THE WIND ADVY IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE SW MTNS BY LATE MORNING...WITH DRY SLOT WORKING IN BEHIND IT...AND ERODING THE WEDGE. PRECIP WILL DIMINISH FROM THE WEST THOUGH WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON EAST OF I-77. MODELS INCLUDING SOME SREF MEMBERS DEVELOP A TRIPLE-POINT LOW NEAR CHARLOTTE AS THE FRONT INTERACTS WITH THE WEDGE BOUNDARY. SPECTACULAR LLVL SHEAR WILL STILL BE PRESENT AND ENHANCED NEAR SFC WARM ADVECTION WITH THE LOW COULD ALLOW SFC BASED INSTABILITY. THUS THERE IS A SMALL SEVERE RISK...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF CHARLOTTE...TOMORROW AFTN. SPC HAS INCLUDED PORTIONS OF UNION CO NC AND CHESTER CO IN THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FOR THIS REASON. SOME SLIGHT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ANYWAY FOR PARCELS LIFTED FROM THE WARM NOSE SO THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF THUNDER OVER MUCH OF THE SE HALF OF THE CWFA TOMORROW...EVEN IF THE TRIPLE POINT FALLS FURTHER EAST AND SEVERE WX THREAT IS MITIGATED OVER OUR AREA. TEMPS COULD SHOOT UP QUICKLY AS THE WEDGE IS ERODED...PERHAPS TOPPING OUT AROUND NORMAL IN THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...BUT WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTH AND EAST WHERE THE WEDGE WILL LAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 yall need twitter, lol. They posted their discussion 13 min ago... http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/p.php?pil=AFDGSP&e=201302252025 Follow iembot_gsp for automated updates as they post them, not minutes later as the servers lag btw publish and live on site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Cloud cover is waning off from west to east and getting close to having clear skies here IMBY. Definitely could aid in cooling down the temps tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Wow NWS Blacksburg pulls the winter storm warning out for county right to the south of Roanoke for up to .25" of zr. Guess they were pretty impressed with the 12Z GFS and NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 They stayed with WWA here, but mostly in the higher hills north and west of me. I might get a pellet or two? ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHTTONIGHT TO NOON EST TUESDAY...* LOCATIONS...ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE MOUNTAINS.* HAZARD TYPES...FREEZING RAIN AND SOME SLEET.* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND ONE TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICING...WITHLOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE BLUE RIDGE. LESS THAN ONE HALFINCH OF SLEET.* TIMING...STARTING AFTER MIDNIGHT CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY MORNING.CHANGING TO RAIN DURING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.* IMPACTS...ICE ACCUMULATION WILL BE MAINLY ON ELEVATED OBJECTSLIKE TREES AND POWER LINES. BRIDGES...OVERPASSES AND HIGHERELEVATION OR UNTREATED ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK.* WINDS...EAST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.* TEMPERATURES...DROPPING TO AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING AFTERMIDNIGHT...RISING TO THE MID 30S BY NOON TUESDAY.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...THIS WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SLEET...ANDFREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE SOME TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPAREDFOR SLIPPERY ROADS...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.THE PUBLIC IS ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ICE ACCUMULATION TO THENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VIA EMAIL AT [email protected] OR ATPHONE NUMBER 1...8 6 6...2 1 5...4 3 2 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Wow NWS Blacksburg pulls the winter storm warning out for county right to the south of Roanoke for up to .25" of zr. Guess they were pretty impressed with the 12Z GFS and NAM. Floyd County does great in borderline events. They see a crippling ice storm while we see 33 and rain in the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Floyd County does great in borderline events. They see a crippling ice storm while we see 33 and rain in the valley. Yes they do, I remember going up hwy 8 from Stuart one day it was just raining and I had no thought of Ice, I got to Floyd at parkway it was unreal the most Ice I have ever seen on trees, It had to have been inch thick it was beatiful... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Sky definitely clearing here, but my high temp was 43.3 IMBY. The temp has since begun to fall back again. I agree that clearing skies at this point can only aid in cooling temperatures near ground level before precip arrives. Whether it will be enough to get any frozen precipitation east of the mountains is still to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Sky definitely clearing here, but my high temp was 43.3 IMBY. The temp has since begun to fall back again. I agree that clearing skies at this point can only aid in cooling temperatures near ground level before precip arrives. Whether it will be enough to get any frozen precipitation east of the mountains is still to be determined. Sunny here now 42.8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Full sunshine here comes the dry air. Temps might warm 4-8 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Full sunshine here comes the dry air. Temps might warm 4-8 degrees. What? If anything they should start to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I mean really, do us a favor and STFU. It will be dark in 2 hours, temp can't warm 4-8 at 4:15 pm on a late summer afternoon.Lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I mean really, do us a favor and STFU. It will be dark in 2 hours, temp can't warm 4-8 at 4:15 pm on a late summer afternoon. The skies are healing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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