IWC Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You have 50% of the posts in this thread. Couldn't you dial it back a bit? Jburns, Didn't you here? Wilkes is doing all the weather for the United States of America. All the mets will be unemployed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We need a Wilkes County sub forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Dial it back a few guys, take the Wilkes County appreciation posts to banter, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Seriously....I think any thread started by Wilkes deteriorates to banter anyway so whats the difference? This is out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I have no problems with the weather posts in this thread. I'm curious about this event myself. If others think it's a worthless thread, they don't have to read it, but I appreciate all the weather info being posted, as it's also kinda close to home for me. The latest NAM seems to be a little warmer than prior runs. I think WilkesboroDude and Big Frosty have the best chance at seeing something from this other than the mountain posters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Moderate Risk issued for WNC. Blacksburg thinking winter weather advisories...not sure if it will cover Yadkin/Wilkes/Surry...but should be for the mountains obviously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 NAM coming in slightly colder tonight... enough to be dangerous...esp. for areas like Boone, Jefferson, Sparta, and more-so along the Blue Ridge. I feel the snow/sleet threat is real from Blacksburg when looking at the low dew-points for the area I highlighted below and nearby spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I don't mind Wilkes posting either, he posts weather info that is relevant. Although he may not spend as much time with the ladies that he should, I appreciate his love for weather and his efforts to inform members on potential. Obviously this has potential to be a serious event for the northern mtns. I feel like the few posters in the mtns including myself get neglected sometimes but that happens when you are the minority. Best of luck to everyone with this little system tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 53 with steaady rain. NWS Jax finally decided to put us in a Flood Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Winter Weather Advisory Winter Weather Advisory issued for Wilkes and Surry!!!! * Accumulations... up to two tenths of an inch of ice. Less than an inch of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Tstorms! AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC640 AM EST MON FEB 25 2013.SYNOPSIS...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINSNORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THETRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THROUGHTUESDAY [cut] ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL STRENGTHEN THIS EVE AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHTACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS. RAIN WILL BE EDGING TOWARD THESOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE DAY AND THIS EVEWITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAIN BEFORE DARK NEAR THE SOUTHSANTEE RIVER. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE WEDGE...AND THUS THE DRYAIR...BEING SLOW TO ERODE...ESPECIALLY BELOW 3 KFT. THUS...LIGHTRAIN MAY FALL AS VIRGA FOR A TIME AND NOT ACTUALLY REACH THE GROUND.WILL BEGIN TO RAMP POPS HIGHER IN THE EVE ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA ANDLATE EVE AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA. MEASURABLE RAIN ISEXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA...FROM S TO N TONIGHT...AND POPS WILL BE CATEGORICAL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT AREEXPECTED TO REACH ONE TENTH TO A LITTLE MORE THAN ONE HALF INCH...HIGHEST S...WITH MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES ON TUE.MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES DO NOT QUITESUPPORT THE INCLUSION OF EVEN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT ANDSO WE WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL TUE AFTERNOON. [cut] .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 3 AM MONDAY...TUESDAY SHAPING UP TO BE QUITE ACTIVE WITH TWOSEPARATE WEATHER CONCERNS ALL WITHIN ABOUT THE FIRST 12 HOURS. ATDAYBREAK THERE WILL BE MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY RAINFALL QUITEWIDESPREAD IN THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE. DEEPLY OCCLUDED PARENT LOWWILL BE OVER WRN KY/TN WHILE SUBTLE TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES UP THECENTRAL CAROLINAS. BY ABOUT 18 THE DEEPEST MOISTURE AND ISENTROPICRAINS SHOULD LIFT TO THE NORTH OF THE REGION. DRY SLOT IMPINGINGFROM THE WEST ALONG WITH CONTINUED LOW LEVEL JETTING INTO THERMALTROUGH COULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE EROSION OF CLOUDINESS WHILE MIDLEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA ARE STILL MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. THISIS PORTRAYED QUITE BELIEVABLY IN 12KM WRF PROG OF 0-3 MUCAPE PLOTSWHICH SHOW VALUES IN THE 500-1000J/KG RANGE ADVECTING INTO SOUTHCAROLINA 18Z-21Z AND EVEN CAPE FEAR/COASTAL NC COUNTIES 21-03Z. LOWLEVEL WIND FIELDS QUITE IMPRESSIVE SO THERE IS CERTAINLY A DAMAGINGWIND THREAT SHOULD CONVECTION DEVELOP. 0-3KM SRH VERY HIGH ALONG THEWARM FRONT AND SO WILL BE RECEDING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SHOULD THELINE OF CONVECTION DEVELOP AND PROGRESS EAST FAST ENOUGH IT MAYBENEFIT FROM THE LOW LEVEL TURNING SUFFICIENTLY TO ENHANCE THEALREADY NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT ESPECIALLY SINCE A VAST MAJORITY OFTHE SRH ACTUALLY FOUND IN THE 0-1KM LAYER. LOW LEVEL DRYING WILL LAGTHE MID LEVEL DRYING BY ONLY 1-3 HOURS IN MOST PLACES AS IT SWEEPSWEST TO EAST ACRS THE REGION LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAYWILL BE QUITE SUNNY AND BRING A CONTINUATION OF COLD AND DRYADVECTION. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SOME BREEZINESS DURING PEAKHEATING GIVEN SOME FAIRLY ROBUST WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS BUT MOSTOF THEM APPEAR TO BE TRAPPED ABOVE THE STRONG FRONTAL INVERSION AT3-3.5KFT. YET MORE CAA WED NIGHT BUT A CONTINUED WEST WIND PREVENTSANY RAD COOLING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Wunderground!!!!! Tuesday Overcast with thunderstorms and rain. High of 54F. Winds from the ENE at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100% with rainfall amounts near 1.0 in. possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 06Z GFS was quite chilly for Tuesday AM too. GSP is forecasting a high of 50 with filtered sunshine this morning. I'm currently sitting at 35 with a solid cloud cover. I don't think I'll see the sun at all today based on current satellite images. Thus, I'm wondering how much above 40 I'll actually make it today IMBY. This could make it easier to wet-bulb down to freezing overnight with the precip arriving. Currently, there is absolutely no mention at all of freezing precip in GSP's disco except for the mountain counties of Avery, Mitchell, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Current wet-bulb temps about 24 hours before the start of the precip in NW NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Also from RAH -- may receive some sleet at the start of the event tonight. What interesting (to me) is the cold start here in north NC. At RDU it's 33 with a dewpt of 21 and overcast skys. Something to watch today. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...AS OF 310 AM MONDAY...ACTIVE WEATHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOW LIFTS FROM TEXAS TOWARDILLINOIS/INDIANA TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILLBEGIN LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. MEANWHILE...STRONGUPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A 120KT JET MAX ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OFTHE UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH A 50+ KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILLSHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSSTHE AREA AFTER 06Z. THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINED PRECIPFALLING INTO THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THELOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LEAD TO A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMINGSETUP. THE SURFACE WETBULB FREEZING LINE IS FORECAST TO LIE IN THEVICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TONIGHT...BUT IS ALSO FORECAST TOQUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE 09-15Z TIMEFRAME.CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MAY MIX WITHSLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. THEDRYNESS OF THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS TODAY AND THE FACT THAT THE PARENTHIGH WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER NEW ENGLAND AT12Z TUESDAY IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...BUT THIS POINT WE DO NOT EXPECTANY IMPACTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Not gonna see 50 today. Expect Beech and Sugar to pick up 36 inches + between now and March 10. 2 week NWSF event about to unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Also from RAH -- may receive some sleet at the start of the event tonight. What interesting (to me) is the cold start here in north NC. At RDU it's 33 with a dewpt of 21 and overcast skys. Something to watch today. .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 310 AM MONDAY... ACTIVE WEATHER LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOW LIFTS FROM TEXAS TOWARD ILLINOIS/INDIANA TONIGHT...A WARM FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST WILL BEGIN LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. MEANWHILE...STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF A 120KT JET MAX ON THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF THE UPPER LOW...ALONG WITH A 50+ KT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WITH RAIN SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA AFTER 06Z. THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION COMBINED PRECIP FALLING INTO THE DRY SURFACE RIDGE...WHERE DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 20S THIS AFTERNOON...WILL LEAD TO A STRONG COLD AIR DAMMING SETUP. THE SURFACE WETBULB FREEZING LINE IS FORECAST TO LIE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHWEST PIEDMONT TONIGHT...BUT IS ALSO FORECAST TO QUICKLY RETREAT NORTH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE 09-15Z TIMEFRAME. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND WETBULB PROFILES SUGGEST RAIN MAY MIX WITH SLEET AT THE ONSET OF PRECIP BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. THE DRYNESS OF THE ANTECEDENT AIRMASS TODAY AND THE FACT THAT THE PARENT HIGH WILL STILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLY POSITIONED OVER NEW ENGLAND AT 12Z TUESDAY IS A LITTLE CONCERNING...BUT THIS POINT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS. Would be funny if we get something big when it wasn't ecpected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Not gonna see 50 today. Expect Beech and Sugar to pick up 36 inches + between now and March 10. 2 week NWSF event about to unfold. O yea! Ive been looking at the med and long range and it never wants to stop with moisture against the TN line with several bouts of moisture swinging through, one Fri and one Sat night. My good ol friend up in Newland may see some serious pow pow as the 850's are very cold, keeping ratios a bit high. Looking fwd to seeing this setup unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...930 AM UPDATE...HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES. CADWEDGE AND THICK CIRRUS DECK HAVE KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN PREV FCST SOFAR TODAY. LATEST AVBL MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS RAW MODEL TEMPS KEPTPRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CWA IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL THIS ISAPPROPRIATE. AS FOR PRECIP...LATEST RAP INDICATES A WAVE OF PRECIPEARLY THIS AFTN THEN A LULL BEFORE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TONIGHT.DISCOUNTING THIS AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR STEADILY INCREASING LLVLISENTROPIC FORCING FROM AFTN INTO EVENING...THUS OUR STEADILYINCREASING POPS LOOK GOOD. 06Z GFS was quite chilly for Tuesday AM too. GSP is forecasting a high of 50 with filtered sunshine this morning. I'm currently sitting at 35 with a solid cloud cover. I don't think I'll see the sun at all today based on current satellite images. Thus, I'm wondering how much above 40 I'll actually make it today IMBY. This could make it easier to wet-bulb down to freezing overnight with the precip arriving. Currently, there is absolutely no mention at all of freezing precip in GSP's disco except for the mountain counties of Avery, Mitchell, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Sure does feel raw out there today with a brisk NE wind. Heck, I'd even seen a few of dem crows headed south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 930 AM UPDATE...HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED A FEW DEGREES. CAD WEDGE AND THICK CIRRUS DECK HAVE KEPT TEMPS COOLER THAN PREV FCST SO FAR TODAY. LATEST AVBL MOS GUIDANCE AS WELL AS RAW MODEL TEMPS KEPT PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE CWA IN THE 40S THROUGH THE DAY. FEEL THIS IS APPROPRIATE. AS FOR PRECIP...LATEST RAP INDICATES A WAVE OF PRECIP EARLY THIS AFTN THEN A LULL BEFORE WARM FRONTAL PRECIP TONIGHT. DISCOUNTING THIS AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR STEADILY INCREASING LLVL ISENTROPIC FORCING FROM AFTN INTO EVENING...THUS OUR STEADILY INCREASING POPS LOOK GOOD. Nice find, Don! My high has been lowered to 46 now. I'm not at home to check MBY temp, but AmWx is saying it's 38 right now under sunny skies. Trust me, there's no sun visible. I think 46 will still be a reach, but I'm not sure. I'd put the number closer to 42 or 43 for the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I am growing more concerned for possible significant freezing rain in the mountains tonight and overnight. The recent 12Z suite of the NAM and GFS suddenly got together with absolutely astounding agreement. Based on the sounding data/graphs, and the fact that both GFS and NAM soundings look identical, I think *warning* criteria ice accumulations are possible from Asheville to Boone. I am not sure why this isn't being discussed more in this thread, perhaps it's due to the uncertainty. But, I want to point out that with good model agreement on timing, amounts, and now p-type, all with less than 15 hours until the start of the event, we need to watch this very closely. Tough call for GSP...but better to over-forecast than under in this situation. Right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm still stuck under thick clouds this morning. Haven't even broke 40 degrees yet, so I'm sure that'll have some effect on what happens tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This can't be right, can it? Three quarters of an inch of freezing rain for KHKY on the 12Z GFS!!! That would be horrendous. At the same time, the NAM continues to advertise none at all. I still see the NAM only in favor KAVL accumulations, but its total is 1.2 inches on the latest run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Forecast high was 50 and at 41 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD Addict Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Still below freezing in Boone...got a feeling this "minor" event might have a bigger punch than some think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Foothills says real bad in that are. NWS missed big time he said with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AirNelson39 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It has a winter feeling in the air up here in Boone, 33 degrees and the air just feels heavy. Last event it was sunny and 50 at this point. I can't believe this isn't being made a bigger deal with the latest 12z model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It was supposed to be 50 here today and we have barely broken 40 and are under full cloud cover. I wonder if things could get interesting tonight now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Foothills says real bad in that are. NWS missed big time he said with this one I agree! Looks like a very interesting situation setting up tonight, AVL-TNB. As I mentioned above, it looks like WARNING criteria ice accumulations in this corridor. Right now, there isn't much more than a few advisories out, and it's only for Boone northward. Maybe I am missing something, but when the GFS and NAM come together (which hasn't really happened here this winter), it's time to start wondering what they are latching onto. This could catch A LOT of people off guard if any ice were to verify where only rain is currently forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.