WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Per 0z GFS...and consistent EURO/NAM...feel like there is a need to be concerned in WNC. Widespread closings and delays for the Tuesday morning commute esp. in the mountains. Also feel like I am dirtying up the main thread so bringing it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Looking pretty classic to me. I'd expect some problems east of the mountains in the normal spots. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Per 0z GFS...and consistent EURO/NAM...feel like there is a need to be concerned in WNC. Widespread closings and delays for the Tuesday morning commute esp. in the mountains. Also feel like I am dirtying up the main thread so bringing it here. Another winter weather event jinx... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Another winter weather event jinx... I wouldn't be saying that but the recent events have closed schools here...and delayed nearby. This looks similar and already looking at a prone morning commute. Timing is perfect unfortunately, yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I wouldn't be saying that but the recent events have closed schools here...and delayed nearby. This looks similar and already looking at a prone morning commute. Timing is perfect unfortunately, yet again. You do have a point there...a lot of places error on the side of caution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 0z Euro still persistent that it could be just cold enough after midnight Monday night for snow to the immediate east of the mountains...interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 0z EURO hour 60 HPC new ice maps...going 80% chance or higher now on some of them. Still shows half inch of ice chance for northern mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Thought I would post this for Asheville. NAM very consistent on a blazing major, catastrophic, ice-storm. GFS says, "what's ice?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Thought I would post this for Asheville. NAM very consistent on a blazing major, catastrophic, ice-storm. GFS says, "what's ice?" With our inability to generate any winter weather, GFS is almost certainly correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 MONDAY NIGHT...A CHANCE OF SLEET WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN INTHE EVENING...THEN RAIN...A CHANCE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAINAFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SLEET ACCUMULATION. LOWS IN THE MID30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...BECOMING EAST AROUND 10 MPH AFTERMIDNIGHT. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT..TUESDAY...RAIN...FREEZING RAIN WITH A CHANCE OF SLEET IN THEMORNING...THEN RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE OR NO SLEETACCUMULATION. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 40S. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT..TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN LIKELY IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. CHANCE OFRAIN 60 PERCENT. I don't look for much freezing rain in the mid 30s? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Thought I would post this for Asheville. NAM very consistent on a blazing major, catastrophic, ice-storm. GFS says, "what's ice?" By contrast, the meteogram for KHKY is the exact opposite. I can't figure out how to post that image, but both the 00Z and the 06Z GFS show greater than 0.40 inches of freezing rain accumulation while neither of the last two NAM runs show anything at all. All I can guess is that the NAM is forecasting the coldest pockets of air to remain in the mountain valleys but not bleed down the eastern slopes of the Apps, while the GFS is strongly pushing CAD but doesn't see any cause for cold air to remain locked into the SW mountain valleys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 By contrast, the meteogram for KHKY is the exact opposite. I can't figure out how to post that image, but both the 00Z and the 06Z GFS show greater than 0.40 inches of freezing rain accumulation while neither of the last two NAM runs show anything at all. All I can guess is that the NAM is forecasting the coldest pockets of air to remain in the mountain valleys but not bleed down the eastern slopes of the Apps, while the GFS is strongly pushing CAD but doesn't see any cause for cold air to remain locked into the SW mountain valleys. Hmm, thats interesting because this is the Morganton Airport data from the 0z Nam run and it has quite a bit of FZRA. Station ID: KMRN Lat: 35.82 Long: -81.61 NAM Model Run: 0Z 24FEB 2013 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 0 02/24 00Z 44 44 130 2 0.00 0.00 552 562 7.4 -18.7 1011 100 046OVC365 0.0 15.0 3 02/24 03Z 43 43 193 2 0.00 0.00 549 559 6.9 -19.4 1012 100 018OVC352 0.0 1.8 6 02/24 06Z 43 43 293 3 0.00 0.00 546 554 6.3 -23.5 1010 100 056OVC171 0.0 6.4 9 02/24 09Z 41 39 310 6 0.00 0.00 543 553 4.8 -20.6 1011 41 028SCT048 0.0 9.2 12 02/24 12Z 37 33 311 6 0.00 0.00 545 557 5.4 -17.6 1014 32 017SCT049 0.0 5.5 15 02/24 15Z 48 32 313 7 0.00 0.00 548 561 3.4 -17.0 1015 10 024FEW081 0.0 14.9 18 02/24 18Z 55 27 307 7 0.00 0.00 550 563 2.2 -16.2 1014 10 052FEW101 0.0 15.0 21 02/24 21Z 55 26 303 8 0.00 0.00 551 563 2.0 -17.1 1014 7 076FEW130 0.0 15.0 24 02/25 00Z 48 24 327 6 0.00 0.00 550 564 2.2 -17.8 1016 3 077FEW125 0.0 15.0 27 02/25 03Z 40 23 337 5 0.00 0.00 549 565 3.7 -17.6 1019 0 CLR 0.0 15.0 30 02/25 06Z 34 24 349 4 0.00 0.00 548 565 3.8 -17.8 1020 0 CLR 0.0 15.1 33 02/25 09Z 32 24 358 4 0.00 0.00 548 564 2.8 -18.0 1020 40 293SCT293 0.0 15.1 36 02/25 12Z 33 24 39 2 0.00 0.00 547 565 1.5 -18.3 1022 58 246BKN353 0.0 15.1 39 02/25 15Z 38 24 99 5 0.00 0.00 547 566 0.9 -18.0 1024 100 213OVC361 0.0 15.1 42 02/25 18Z 40 25 126 4 0.00 0.00 547 565 1.5 -19.5 1022 100 166OVC371 0.0 15.0 45 02/25 21Z 40 27 96 4 0.00 0.00 548 565 2.3 -17.8 1021 100 145OVC339 0.0 15.1 48 02/26 00Z 38 28 65 3 0.00 0.00 548 566 2.3 -15.7 1022 100 112OVC261 0.0 15.1 51 02/26 03Z 36 27 47 4 0.00 0.00 548 566 0.9 -16.0 1022 97 173BKN372 0.0 15.0 54 02/26 06Z 35 28 53 7 0.00 0.00 549 566 0.2 -16.1 1022 98 -FZRN 056OVC391 0.0 14.7 57 02/26 09Z 32 31 60 9 0.29 0.00 549 564 1.2 -14.3 1019 100 FZRN 014OVC392 0.0 1.3 60 02/26 12Z 31 30 59 12 0.18 0.00 550 565 5.5 -13.5 1018 100 FZRN 013OVC286 0.0 1.6 63 02/26 15Z 32 31 59 13 0.24 0.00 552 564 8.4 -14.4 1015 100 FZRN 014OVC157 0.0 1.4 66 02/26 18Z 34 32 58 9 0.40 0.05 553 561 9.0 -14.6 1010 100 TSPL 018OVC165 0.0 1.4 69 02/26 21Z 36 34 359 5 0.29 0.16 551 557 8.4 -15.3 1007 100 TSRA 017OVC158 0.0 10.0 72 02/27 00Z 36 36 339 4 0.02 0.00 549 554 4.7 -17.4 1007 100 017OVC078 0.0 16.9 75 02/27 03Z 38 37 257 3 0.00 0.00 548 554 3.5 -16.8 1007 94 128BKN130 0.0 16.8 78 02/27 06Z 35 35 246 3 0.00 0.00 546 551 2.0 -16.2 1006 69 097BKN129 0.0 11.4 81 02/27 09Z 33 32 250 3 0.01 0.00 544 549 -0.1 -17.4 1006 60 097BKN105 0.0 5.0 84 02/27 12Z 32 32 215 3 0.00 0.00 542 548 -2.1 -19.2 1007 64 016BKN040 0.0 2.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneTracker Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 If I had to place a bet for this storm, GFS would be the one. NAM has been too inconsistent all winter long, while GFS pretty much is nailing every event. Plus, GFS handles cold-air damming the best, too. At least traditionally... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I figured out how to get a picture off the meteogram site. Imgur won't work, so I had to print screen to Paint and then save as a .png file. Anyway, the NAM is still showing nothing for KHKY, and the GFS roughly cut its 06Z freezing rain totals in half with the latest 12Z run. Still, a quarter inch of ice accretion is nothing to sneer at: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Hmm, thats interesting because this is the Morganton Airport data from the 0z Nam run and it has quite a bit of FZRA. Station ID: KMRN Lat: 35.82 Long: -81.61 NAM Model Run: 0Z 24FEB 2013 HR Valid 2m Tmp 2m Dpt 10m Dir 10m Spd TPrcp CPrcp 1000-500 500mb 850mb 500mb MSLP TCC PRS WX Tot Snowfall Vis Deg F Deg F deg kt in. in. Thk GPH Tmp Tmp mb % TEXT Clouds in SM 0 02/24 00Z 44 44 130 2 0.00 0.00 552 562 7.4 -18.7 1011 100 046OVC365 0.0 15.0 3 02/24 03Z 43 43 193 2 0.00 0.00 549 559 6.9 -19.4 1012 100 018OVC352 0.0 1.8 6 02/24 06Z 43 43 293 3 0.00 0.00 546 554 6.3 -23.5 1010 100 056OVC171 0.0 6.4 9 02/24 09Z 41 39 310 6 0.00 0.00 543 553 4.8 -20.6 1011 41 028SCT048 0.0 9.2 12 02/24 12Z 37 33 311 6 0.00 0.00 545 557 5.4 -17.6 1014 32 017SCT049 0.0 5.5 15 02/24 15Z 48 32 313 7 0.00 0.00 548 561 3.4 -17.0 1015 10 024FEW081 0.0 14.9 18 02/24 18Z 55 27 307 7 0.00 0.00 550 563 2.2 -16.2 1014 10 052FEW101 0.0 15.0 21 02/24 21Z 55 26 303 8 0.00 0.00 551 563 2.0 -17.1 1014 7 076FEW130 0.0 15.0 24 02/25 00Z 48 24 327 6 0.00 0.00 550 564 2.2 -17.8 1016 3 077FEW125 0.0 15.0 27 02/25 03Z 40 23 337 5 0.00 0.00 549 565 3.7 -17.6 1019 0 CLR 0.0 15.0 30 02/25 06Z 34 24 349 4 0.00 0.00 548 565 3.8 -17.8 1020 0 CLR 0.0 15.1 33 02/25 09Z 32 24 358 4 0.00 0.00 548 564 2.8 -18.0 1020 40 293SCT293 0.0 15.1 36 02/25 12Z 33 24 39 2 0.00 0.00 547 565 1.5 -18.3 1022 58 246BKN353 0.0 15.1 39 02/25 15Z 38 24 99 5 0.00 0.00 547 566 0.9 -18.0 1024 100 213OVC361 0.0 15.1 42 02/25 18Z 40 25 126 4 0.00 0.00 547 565 1.5 -19.5 1022 100 166OVC371 0.0 15.0 45 02/25 21Z 40 27 96 4 0.00 0.00 548 565 2.3 -17.8 1021 100 145OVC339 0.0 15.1 48 02/26 00Z 38 28 65 3 0.00 0.00 548 566 2.3 -15.7 1022 100 112OVC261 0.0 15.1 51 02/26 03Z 36 27 47 4 0.00 0.00 548 566 0.9 -16.0 1022 97 173BKN372 0.0 15.0 54 02/26 06Z 35 28 53 7 0.00 0.00 549 566 0.2 -16.1 1022 98 -FZRN 056OVC391 0.0 14.7 57 02/26 09Z 32 31 60 9 0.29 0.00 549 564 1.2 -14.3 1019 100 FZRN 014OVC392 0.0 1.3 60 02/26 12Z 31 30 59 12 0.18 0.00 550 565 5.5 -13.5 1018 100 FZRN 013OVC286 0.0 1.6 63 02/26 15Z 32 31 59 13 0.24 0.00 552 564 8.4 -14.4 1015 100 FZRN 014OVC157 0.0 1.4 66 02/26 18Z 34 32 58 9 0.40 0.05 553 561 9.0 -14.6 1010 100 TSPL 018OVC165 0.0 1.4 69 02/26 21Z 36 34 359 5 0.29 0.16 551 557 8.4 -15.3 1007 100 TSRA 017OVC158 0.0 10.0 72 02/27 00Z 36 36 339 4 0.02 0.00 549 554 4.7 -17.4 1007 100 017OVC078 0.0 16.9 75 02/27 03Z 38 37 257 3 0.00 0.00 548 554 3.5 -16.8 1007 94 128BKN130 0.0 16.8 78 02/27 06Z 35 35 246 3 0.00 0.00 546 551 2.0 -16.2 1006 69 097BKN129 0.0 11.4 81 02/27 09Z 33 32 250 3 0.01 0.00 544 549 -0.1 -17.4 1006 60 097BKN105 0.0 5.0 84 02/27 12Z 32 32 215 3 0.00 0.00 542 548 -2.1 -19.2 1007 64 016BKN040 0.0 2.5 In my experience freezing rain at 32 or 31 degrees doesn't have a significant impact you really need 30 and below for the crippling storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 In my experience freezing rain at 32 or 31 degrees doesn't have a significant impact you really need 30 and below for the crippling storms. Unfortunately, these several past events have nailed the northern foothills with snow/sleet at 36-32. When that happens any rain at 32 immediately sticks to snow/sleet cover. NWS Blacksburg is already saying we may end up with more snow/sleet than the models are depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Unfortunately, these several past events have nailed the northern foothills with snow/sleet at 36-32. When that happens any rain at 32 immediately sticks to snow/sleet cover. NWS Blacksburg is already saying we may end up with more snow/sleet than the models are depicting. Maybe things have changed but the skew charts look like a rain signature for many places freezing or liquid. The warm pocket is now joke. Not sure how you can get snow with the ones I saw. Also doesn't look cold/dry enough for sleet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 I am in the process of making my map...hold on. ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-SURRY-STOKES-ROCKINGHAM-CASWELL-WATAUGA-WILKES- YADKIN- 357 AM EST SUN FEB 24 2013 WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE ALONG AND EITHER SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET ACCUMULATION ALONG WITH ICE IS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Red...freezing rain...advisory criteria to warning criteria. Up to quarter inch of ice along the Blue Ridge with locally higher amounts. Less in the northern foothills. Blue...snow/sleet...1-2 inches possible or less. Advisory criteria. Black...transit...sleet to rain with only small pockets of freezing rain. Could possibly see an advisory due to criteria of freezing rain...and it being morning commute. Shaded yellow area...best chance of winter weather products being issued and actually verifying. * Blue line turned black in spots where I highlighted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Raysweather for the foothills... Similar to a few days ago, cold air draining down the Appalachians may allow for some freezing rain or sleet to mix with the rain at times Monday night into early Tuesday morning (especially north of I-40). As we have mentioned before, it is all about the temperatures as far as who will see any frozen / freezing precip and who won’t. We can't rule out some minor accumulations of ice or sleet north, so something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 This guy is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I don't think this event looks as good as last one, which was marginal. I did have inch of snow last event made it down 32.8.. I doubt I get any lower than 34/ 35 this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 24, 2013 Author Share Posted February 24, 2013 Winter Storm Watches now flaring up in Maryland and West Virginia. NWS Blacksburg will have something out tomorrow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 TBH, none of these events have ever looked good but we somehow manage to luck out. It is the weekend so TV stations, media, etc. are sleeping on this potential. Monday they will likely have maps out. Dude, you're teenager on a weekend and 7 of the last 9 posts in this thread are yours. Do you know what a girl is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Dude, you're teenager on a weekend and 7 of the last 9 posts in this thread are yours. Do you know what a girl is?lol. And even worse he will have spent a whole week on 15 min of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 BY DAY 2...A THREAT OF ICING DEVELOPS ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS WELLDOWNSTREAM OF THE CYCLONE FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC TO THETN BORDER UP INTO WV AND WESTERN VA. COLD AIR TRAPPED NEAR THESURFACE DUE TO A NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRESSURE CELL HAS WARMER AIR ANDMOISTURE STREAMING OVER THE TOP WITH PRECIP DEVELOPING BEFORE THESUBFREEZING SURFACE COLD AIR GETS SCOURED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINAREAS. A MODERATE RISK IS SHOWN DUE TO INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES INA MULTIPLE PRECIP TYPE EVENT...WITH UNCERTAINTIES REVOLVING AROUNDDURATION OF EACH PRECIP TYPE. THE NAM/GFS/SREF MEAN ALL SHOW POTENTIAL FOR A QUARTER INCH OR MORE OF ICING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Here she comes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Here she comes... You have 50% of the posts in this thread. Couldn't you dial it back a bit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Here she comes... How much for Sparta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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