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March 2013 General Disco


snowstormcanuck

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36F and blazin' sun ugh. Snow in shaded areas still hard as a rock here, however in open areas its bare sans piles (snow depth down to T now). Is your backyard shaded much?

 

It is. All the melt runoff from the roof/trees just runs into a puddle in shaded areas that eventually refreezes....most of the yard is still an ice slab a few inches thick.

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0z GFS looks pretty darn cold after 174 hours about.

I'm thinking roughly 12th or 13th through the 20th has decent potential for some impressive cold for mid March. Ensembles have been very consistent with a -NAO/-AO/-EPO. The -PNA that's also been showing up on the ensembles could also result in an active pattern along with the cold. 

 

Signal for a big -EPO ridge and strong -NAO on the 00z GEFS:

 

00zgfs500mbHeightAnomalyNH192.gif

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haha i think after the Feb 8 storm the Nipher went into repairing haha. 

 

That nipher ****ed up snow totals for many great storms. I'm sure we didnt need the army especially if only 79cm fell in Jan 1999...i mean 76cm fell in Feb 2008....EC needs to be more realistic and use something more accurate than that Nipher thing. I'm confident 2007-08 would have been a new snowfall record beating 38-39 if the Nipher wasnt in commission. 

 

Hmm, after this week, things look very interesting across the board with cold anomalies present across the West and warm anomalies across the South. Quite the battle. A good recipe for storms but could be hard on the models. 

 

Eh, what are you going to do?

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GFS and ECMWF having their differences in the long range. Does appear that a sharp cool snap looms after the mild up this week. The obvious questions of how long and intensity remain but, its night and day between last mid march and this one. This March seems to be behaving as normal, which in the last 4 years has been non existent. Kinda has that 2011 look. Solar cycle continues to be active as we head forward with 103 current sunspots and a double peak of intensity expected sometime between May and Dec of this year.

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I didn't think YYZ had a chance to catch up to downtown but it's certainly shaping up to be a race to the finish line. With wet snowfalls becoming more common over the next several weeks, Pearson and its nipher have a sporting chance.

 

Only YYZ recorded measurable snow this past Sunday. Both downtown and East York recorded a trace.

 

Big difference in snow depth across Toronto. Only a couple of inches in the downtown core, but move a few kms north to St. Clair/Eglinton, there's a good 4-5" pm the ground.

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High resolution NAM indicating the possibility for some lake enhancement across the GTA/hamilton/burlington areas tomorrow morning. Northern michigan and illinois may get in on the fun as well. Soundings look okay at YYZ with litte shear between the surface and 700mb. Fairly low Delta-t values and the cold lake has me skeptical though. Might be something to watch early tomorrow. 

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High resolution NAM indicating the possibility for some lake enhancement across the GTA/hamilton/burlington areas tomorrow morning. Northern michigan and illinois may get in on the fun as well. Soundings look okay at YYZ with litte shear between the surface and 700mb. Fairly low Delta-t values and the cold lake has me skeptical though. Might be something to watch early tomorrow. 

attachicon.gifnam-hires_namer_027_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif

 

Hi-res WRF also indicating the potential although very light and mostly to our west (as one would think in a NE flow). I'm not expecting much.

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Still have half a foot of snowpack remaining. Days and days of cloud cover, sub freezing temps, and minimal sublimation will do that, even in March.

Same here. Liking it overall, but tough to see when backing out of the driveway!

 

Only YYZ recorded measurable snow this past Sunday. Both downtown and East York recorded a trace.

 

Big difference in snow depth across Toronto. Only a couple of inches in the downtown core, but move a few kms north to St. Clair/Eglinton, there's a good 4-5" pm the ground.

 

I was downtown on Saturday and was surprised at how little snow there was. Makes me glad I live north of the 401!

12z is ugly if you want spring...  Might be waiting until April before we lose the snow.

 

I'm really hoping for a gradual transition to spring as opposed to a sudden thaw. My ideal daytime highs are as follows:

January: highs in the single digits

February: highs in the teens

March 1-15: highs in the 30s

March 16-31: highs in the 40s

April: highs in the 50s

May: highs in the 60s

June: highs in the 70s

July: highs in the 80s/low 90s

August: highs in the 80s

September 1-15: highs in the 70s

September 16-30: highs in the 60s

October 1-15: highs in the 50s

October 16-31: highs in the 40s

November: highs in the 30s

December: highs in the 20s

Hi-res WRF also indicating the potential although very light and mostly to our west (as one would think in a NE flow). I'm not expecting much.

Thje Weather Network is calling for light freezing drizzle in Toronto tonight with a NE wind. If we get the NE wind, I can't see Toronto making it up to the low 40s tomorrow, particularly with the deep snowcover.

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I'm thinking roughly 12th or 13th through the 20th has decent potential for some impressive cold for mid March. Ensembles have been very consistent with a -NAO/-AO/-EPO. The -PNA that's also been showing up on the ensembles could also result in an active pattern along with the cold. 

 

Signal for a big -EPO ridge and strong -NAO on the 00z GEFS:

 

Looks rather reminiscent to March, 1965, which has been showing up rather consistently in the CPC analogs (although the cold is shifted a bit east with the current pattern). There was a major winter storm on St. Patrick's Day of that year in MN, and, if I need to go severe sided for a sec, well we all know what happened in April of that year...

comphour509824319863141.gif

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After 4.5" of snow today, we have about 8" on the ground.  The lower 3" is rock solid glacier.  Pretty impressive snow pack for March. 

 

Now that we got a fairly decent storm, and not so crappy a season total, I'm ready to move on to spring.  Any more snow at this point needs to be a decent storm, or else I really won't be interested.  Will enjoy the snow pack for a few days, and then I want it out of here.  :frostymelt:

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I was over at Hoffmaster State Park two days ago.  There was 15-20" of snow piled up on the back side of the dunes.  I noticed there was some damage to the railing on the walkway due to the weight of this dense "snow glacier" oozing down the hill.  There's still about 10" in my parents yard which is on a wooded NE facing hill.  I'm 200 lbs and I can almost put all my weight on it without sinking in more than a couple inches.  I wonder how long it's going to take to melt it all.

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Hey Andy, I live in Dunlap now although not in 1965 but I have heard plenty of stories from neighbors and friends here about that Palm Sunday.  Yet if the reservoir of cold remains as we head into spring it certainly will provide good lapse rates for a more active svr season than the overall warmth of 2012 provided.

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Hey Andy, I live in Dunlap now although not in 1965 but I have heard plenty of stories from neighbors and friends here about that Palm Sunday.  Yet if the reservoir of cold remains as we head into spring it certainly will provide good lapse rates for a more active svr season than the overall warmth of 2012 provided.

 

Yeah I'd agree with this.

 

And the Northern IN corridor got absolutely raked in that outbreak, was the time they issued that "blanket tornado warning" where they put all counties in the jurisdiction under a warning.

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GFS and ECMWF having their differences in the long range. Does appear that a sharp cool snap looms after the mild up this week. The obvious questions of how long and intensity remain but, its night and day between last mid march and this one. This March seems to be behaving as normal, which in the last 4 years has been non existent. Kinda has that 2011 look. Solar cycle continues to be active as we head forward with 103 current sunspots and a double peak of intensity expected sometime between May and Dec of this year.

 

Yeah I think one more peak and that will be all she wrote. Then get ready for a long quiet period.

 

This storm was decent for March, impressive considering this winter.

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