Brewers Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 With the next week looking to be very cold for March standards, I decided to look through MKE's climate data and see how many times there has been a sub 20° high and sub 10° low between March 15th-31st. As you can see this is pretty rare especially if you take out the pre - 1900's data. Sorry for the bad data plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
panhandlehook Posted March 17, 2013 Share Posted March 17, 2013 With the next week looking to be very cold for March standards, I decided to look through MKE's climate data and see how many times there has been a sub 20° high and sub 10° low between March 15th-31st. As you can see this is pretty rare especially if you take out the pre - 1900's data. Sorry for the bad data plot. Wow! I never even thought of this! Nice work! Looks like Wednesday will come close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Today was cold. Out working on the car and it was not warm, even with full sunshine. Clouds look to be streaming in from the west. Hit 31F today, but it didn't feel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Wow! I never even thought of this! Nice work! Looks like Wednesday will come close. Thanks. If we had a fresh snow cover, we might of been talking about the possibility of subzero temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Snow Depth in the U.P. right now ranges from 10 to 60 inches. yes, there is an incredible reported depth of 58" in Marquette county somewhere (19" in downtown Marquette but 43" at the NWS in Negaunee)...and over 50" in Ishpheming. Outside of those high (60") and low (10") areas, Id say the average depth for most of the UP is 2-3 feet. It is heavy and waterlogged and there is no warmth in sight. Im thinking the may see a record late melt. Meanwhile here the 2nd straight colder than normal month is all but a lock. If all the snow doesnt melt tomorrow (depending how warm it gets) we will have at least a T on the ground all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Someone may have mentioned it earlier, but it's not very often that you get to March 17th with only one tornado reported for the month. (EF1 in Glascock Co. GA 3/5). If the deep South doesn't get an isolated one tomorrow, the streak could be extended for a few more days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Someone may have mentioned it earlier, but it's not very often that you get to March 17th with only one tornado reported for the month. (EF1 in Glascock Co. GA 3/5). If the deep South doesn't get an isolated one tomorrow, the streak could be extended for a few more days. Incredible when you really think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Looks like the storm track is going to stay suppressed way to the south the whole rest of the month. This winter is just cruel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Looks like the storm track is going to stay suppressed way to the south the whole rest of the month. This winter is just cruel. It's cruel, but fwiw, the 18z GFS Ensembles generally flipped to a potentially interesting look of a GLC for many next weekend. Will Angrysummons post in the med/long range discussion be right that the constant suppression the models are showing will be wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 It's cruel, but fwiw, the 18z GFS Ensembles generally flipped to a potentially interesting look of a GLC for many next weekend. Will Angrysummons post in the med/long range discussion be right that the constant suppression the models are showing will be wrong? I noticed that about the 18z. The models are never right, so I don't know why some get so bothered by the long range. i look at it like this. Colder than normal temps likely? That means better than average chance of late season snow. It could be suppressed or it could cut or anything in between. You know what would be a good test/study next winter? Take the 00z 16-day GFS forecast for a given city every 3rd day or so and document it, then follow it up with the actual weather conditions. I can 100% guarentee you you will have periods the LR GFS said bone dry that are snowy, and very stormy periods that end up quite dry, etc. We already know the models are bad, but i would be willing to bet actual raw model data compared to surface weather obs would be even more dreadful than most realize (outside of 3-4 days out). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Incredible when you really think about it. Pretty sad when you really think about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol 0z GFS for next Sunday. Would be nice of course, for those of us here who like that sort of thing...in late March. That being said, as I said a couple of pages back, I think this is something to watch for portions of the sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Looking forward to the snow tomorrow, not so excited about the single digit temperatures every morning from Tuesday through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Last year, the Wed after spring break Valpo hit 86. This Wednesday, the forecast is for a high of 27. That's incredible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 While cold, right now we would only place #10 on the coldest list for March @ 25.3F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol 0z GFS for next Sunday. Would be nice of course, for those of us here who like that sort of thing...in late March. That being said, as I said a couple of pages back, I think this is something to watch for portions of the sub-forum. Watch the blocking be slower to break down and it ends up being a whiff to the south....on March 31.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol 0z GFS for next Sunday. Would be nice of course, for those of us here who like that sort of thing...in late March. That being said, as I said a couple of pages back, I think this is something to watch for portions of the sub-forum. DGEX has some support... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Winter Weather Adv issued for all week.... Mon-Thur night I'm sure it will be revised to a warning after today and tonight's pesky snows. APX: A LONG STRETCH OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW REMAINS ON TRACK FOR NORTHERNMICHIGAN...REMINDING US THAT WINTER CAN TRULY HANG ON IN THE GREATWHITE NORTH. MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE OBVIOUS...SNOWFALL TOTALSAND HEADLINE MANAGEMENT. TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITHPOTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TYPICALSNOWBELTS OF NRN MICHIGAN. UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSING OFF TUESDAYAND REMAINING AROUND THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVER THIS TIME FRAME. ASERIES OF SFC TROUGHS/SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER POCKETS OF MOISTUREWILL BE ROTATING THROUGH...ENHANCING SNOWFALLS. FLOW IS RATHERWNW/NW THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME...WITH NICE CYCLONIC LOW LEVELFLOW/LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOKINGMUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE...SEEMINGLY NON-EXISTENT AT TIMES. THELATTER ALONE...HAS PROMPTED INCREASED SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONSTUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW WITHPOTENTIALLY IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE TYPICALSNOWBELTS OF NRN MICHIGAN. UPPER LOW WILL BE CLOSING OFF TUESDAYAND REMAINING AROUND THE NRN GREAT LAKES OVER THIS TIME FRAME. ASERIES OF SFC TROUGHS/SHORTWAVE AND DEEPER POCKETS OF MOISTUREWILL BE ROTATING THROUGH...ENHANCING SNOWFALLS. FLOW IS RATHERWNW/NW THIS ENTIRE TIME FRAME...WITH NICE CYCLONIC LOW LEVELFLOW/LAKE SUPERIOR CONNECTION...AND INVERSION HEIGHTS LOOKINGMUCH MORE IMPRESSIVE...SEEMINGLY NON-EXISTENT AT TIMES. THELATTER ALONE...HAS PROMPTED INCREASED SNOWFALL EXPECTATIONS JUST BE READY FOR IMPRESSIVE SNOWFALL FOR SOMEAREAS...EXCEEDING A FOOT BY THURSDAY`S END. THIS WILL PRIMARILY BEFOR CHIPPEWA COUNTY IN EASTERN UPPER...AS WELL ASCHARLEVOIX...OTSEGO...ANTRIM...CRAWFORD..KALKASKA...LEELANAU ANDGRAND TRAVERSE COUNTIES OF NORTHERN LOWER. HIGHS IN THE MID TOUPPER 20S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I was looking for CPC's March outlook, and found their original one made on Feb 21. What a failure. At least their last update at the end of Feb was better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Can't be sure, but this could be the coldest month compared to normals since July 2009 (-5.9F)...?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 December 2010 had a -6.2º departure at IND...so that's the number for Indianapolis. -4.6º for this March through yesterday. LAF was -5.2º in Dec 2010...-4.6º for this March so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I was looking for CPC's March outlook, and found their original one made on Feb 21. What a failure. At least their last update at the end of Feb was better. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Updated Indiana March 2012 vs March 2013 chart. Difference will really take off this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 I was looking for CPC's March outlook, and found their original one made on Feb 21. What a failure. At least their last update at the end of Feb was better. They factor AGW into every forecast according to the site. So since the world is 0.8C warmer...all long range outlooks are warmer than average. Look at the next year of outlooks.... All above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Comparing the March 6-18th time period between 2012 and 2013 is absolutely astounding. The mean temp last year on the 17th and 18th was 68! Our HIGH will be 30 degrees less than the mean temp last year at this time. Incredible. Here's a comparison between last year and this year for that time period from my weather station... http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/15/crazyhs.jpg/'> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 Watch the blocking be slower to break down and it ends up being a whiff to the south....on March 31.... Maybe Tim will remember the year but I think LAF got missed to the south in April a while back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This month has a good chance of finishing below normal at YYZ for the first time since March 2011. That's 23 consecutive months of above normal temperatures for Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This month has a good chance of finishing below normal at YYZ for the first time since March 2011. That's 23 consecutive months of above normal temperatures for Toronto. The month will make 5 out of the last 8 months being at or below normal for my location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OntarioWX Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 This month has a good chance of finishing below normal at YYZ for the first time since March 2011. That's 23 consecutive months of above normal temperatures for Toronto. February 2013, November 2012, September 2012, April 2012 and April 2011 were also below-average at YYZ by at least 0.3C if you go by daily mean temps. There were a few more months in that time span that were technically below-average, but only by a tenth of a degree. Though clearly the trend has been overwhelmingly warm since winter 2010-2011 with positive temp departures blowing any negative ones out of the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 18, 2013 Share Posted March 18, 2013 lol 0z GFS for next Sunday. Would be nice of course, for those of us here who like that sort of thing...in late March. That being said, as I said a couple of pages back, I think this is something to watch for portions of the sub-forum. Looks like the 12z GFS follows it up with a nice hit for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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