daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I still think March ends -2 to -3F here... but there is no way it ends up as a 1960 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Really? Nah. You posted a one time stamp image from 18z run 11 days out... Might want to give us more evidence than that one image. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 12z GFS is much more mild for next week...shows what could be run at 50F late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GFS says Spring is on the way, shows lots of above freezing temps starting 3/7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Skilling's forecast also backs that up with 46° on the 7th. Probably going to be until the week after before anything warmer around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 liking where this is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 liking where this is going At least the crazy cold and dry signal has gone away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'd be even more skeptical of long range flip flops than usual with it being a transition season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I'd be even more skeptical of long range flip flops than usual with it being a transition season. As evident by the 12z ensemble anomalies. Basically have flipped in the last 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 That first map above has back door cold fronts written all over it - in the Lakes in particular. The PNA looks to stay + for the next 10 days about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Approximate date of the 1st Severe Thunderstorm Watch for your given CWA.... any takers? Got to get some severe talk going soon..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Approximate date of the 1st Severe Thunderstorm Watch for your given CWA.... any takers? Got to get some severe talk going soon..... March 30th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Approximate date of the 1st Severe Thunderstorm Watch for your given CWA.... any takers? Got to get some severe talk going soon..... April 8th. --- GFS showing some LES coming in the next 48 hours and a OV snow system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 Definitely some winter fatigue setting in personally. Feel like we've squeezed out every drop of goodness 2012-13 could offer in the month of February and there's really nothing left to give. Whether the 8.5" I average from here on out, usually deposited in scattered, inconsequential amounts, materialize or not will be irrelevant l to how I assess this winter. It's a solid B/B-. Obviously I'll still be amenable to a major snowstorm, unlikely as that may be. But if we Morch tomorrow, you won't find me lamenting its arrival in the complaint thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The warmup looks best the farther west... Looks very brief. Thumbs up to keeping that Michigan snowpack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The warmup looks best the farther west... Looks very brief. Thumbs up to keeping that Michigan snowpack. How about giving us some more proof. Oh wait, you tried that before. I didnt realize people still wishcasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The warmup looks best the farther west... Looks very brief. Thumbs up to keeping that Michigan snowpack. How about giving us some more proof. Oh wait, you tried that before. I didnt realize people still wishcasted. Did you suffer a stroke or something? Go to hour 180, then skip to hour 192... That's the best tools we have in 2013. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Did you suffer a stroke or something? Go to hour 180, then skip to hour 192... That's the best tools we have in 2013. How about checking out the teleconnections? Last I checked those were tools as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 The CFS, which did very well last year with a few weeks lead time in predicting the historic Morch, is painting an entirely different tune for this March with its final daily run of February: Here's the average of the 2/18-2/27 forecasts: Based on these and the CFS performance with a similar lead time last year, I'd be surprised if March ends up any more than slightly above normal. It appears that CPC has keyed on to the colder signal, as they've completely changed their tune with the 0 lead time monthly outlook compared to what was issued on 2/21: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off15_temp.gif VS http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/30day/off14_temp.gif I thought then that they were way too warm with their outlook and this latest one looks much more reasonable IMO. Regarding teleconnections, the 12z GEFS keeps the NAO and AO negative through mid month (though trending slightly higher toward then), flips to a negative PNA, but also has only a brief spurt of a weakly positive EPO after the current period: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/12zensindices.html The European and Canadian ENS are similar with the NAO and the Canadian only has a brief very weakly positive EPO. It appears that the best chance at a brief warm-up is probably around when most have mentioned, 3/7-3/10 or thereabouts, as there is decent ensemble support for the PNA flipping negative and a brief period of positive EPO. But then should the signals on the ensembles pan out, it should flip back to a colder than normal pattern shortly after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah I would say that's completely the opposite of last Morch! Evidence of blocking with warm anomalies over NewFoundland and Baffin Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Did you suffer a stroke or something? Go to hour 180, then skip to hour 192... That's the best tools we have in 2013. How about checking out the teleconnections? Last I checked those were tools as well. RCNY just straightened that out pretty clearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Definitely some winter fatigue setting in personally. Feel like we've squeezed out every drop of goodness 2012-13 could offer in the month of February and there's really nothing left to give. Whether the 8.5" I average from here on out, usually deposited in scattered, inconsequential amounts, materialize or not will be irrelevant l to how I assess this winter. It's a solid B/B-. Obviously I'll still be amenable to a major snowstorm, unlikely as that may be. But if we Morch tomorrow, you won't find me lamenting its arrival in the complaint thread. As I posted in the February thread, I wouldn't mind a March with a blend of 1870,1960,1984 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think one would expect the pendulum to swing to a colder March this year given the full torch we had in March 2012. I favor a rubber band theory in weather. Just don't know when it is going to snap and it's not as precise scientifically as Foucault. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Definitely some winter fatigue setting in personally. Feel like we've squeezed out every drop of goodness 2012-13 could offer in the month of February and there's really nothing left to give. Whether the 8.5" I average from here on out, usually deposited in scattered, inconsequential amounts, materialize or not will be irrelevant l to how I assess this winter. It's a solid B/B-. Obviously I'll still be amenable to a major snowstorm, unlikely as that may be. But if we Morch tomorrow, you won't find me lamenting its arrival in the complaint thread. Yeah i cant rate this winter any lower than a B, its been an amazing winter despite a sort of wacky start like the past few years but anything can happen and February ended up way above normal. If we can squeeze in a decent storm for March Standards (4-5") i'll be happy. One last one. Then i'll be ready for Spring. Certainly if a repeat of march 1870 happened, i'd be freaking my ass out. haha or like the april 2002 ice storm i believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 In all seriousness, I hope we have a slow, gradual transition into spring. I'm all for temps in the 30s in early March, the low 40s in late March, the 50s in April and the 60s in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 1, 2013 Author Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yeah i cant rate this winter any lower than a B, its been an amazing winter despite a sort of wacky start like the past few years but anything can happen and February ended up way above normal. If we can squeeze in a decent storm for March Standards (4-5") i'll be happy. One last one. Then i'll be ready for Spring. Certainly if a repeat of march 1870 happened, i'd be freaking my ass out. haha or like the april 2002 ice storm i believe. Ice storm was April 3-5, 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I would take a repeat of March 1877... Milwaukee Date MaxT MinT Pcpn Snow Snwg 03/01/1877 39 21 0.09 0.9 M 03/02/1877 35 23 0.77 5.5 M 03/03/1877 25 13 0.15 1.5 M 03/04/1877 25 4 0.00 0.0 M 03/05/1877 19 7 0.00 0.0 M 03/06/1877 35 3 T 0.0 M 03/07/1877 26 9 0.45 4.5 M 03/08/1877 22 14 0.41 4.1 M 03/09/1877 14 5 0.00 0.0 M 03/10/1877 19 -3 0.00 0.0 M 03/11/1877 30 11 0.39 3.9 M 03/12/1877 30 22 0.88 7.9 M 03/13/1877 35 12 0.00 0.0 M 03/14/1877 31 13 0.13 1.3 M 03/15/1877 25 2 0.00 0.0 M 03/16/1877 25 13 0.71 7.1 M 03/17/1877 26 5 0.32 3.2 M 03/18/1877 23 11 0.00 0.0 M 03/19/1877 25 17 0.55 5.5 M 03/20/1877 27 12 0.09 0.9 M 03/21/1877 37 21 0.02 0.2 M 03/22/1877 50 22 0.00 0.0 M 03/23/1877 23 16 0.00 0.0 M 03/24/1877 25 18 0.00 0.0 M 03/25/1877 29 13 0.00 0.0 M 03/26/1877 39 18 0.00 0.0 M 03/27/1877 44 29 0.00 0.0 M 03/28/1877 35 27 0.00 0.0 M 03/29/1877 35 22 0.00 0.0 M 03/30/1877 38 24 0.24 0.0 M 03/31/1877 46 34 0.33 0.0 M or just this 3 day stretch from March 1881 03/03/1881 25 18 1.79 17.9 M 03/04/1881 28 16 0.76 7.6 M 03/05/1881 31 23 0.19 1.9 M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Approximate date of the 1st Severe Thunderstorm Watch for your given CWA.... any takers? Got to get some severe talk going soon..... I will go with..... April 10th. Hedging things a bit. I think March will not be anywhere near what last year was, and I think, sometime in the first 1/3 of April we get one of those warm fronts that takes us up to the 70's for a day or two, and then we get a cold front that gives us 4-5 days of upper 40's... we'll get our first severe out of that... As good a guess as any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 RCNY just straightened that out pretty clearly. Yes, he did what you didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This system coming in early to mid next week, may pose some challenging forecasts as the baroclinic zone seems to set up over the Upper Mississippi Valley into the central to southern OH valley, and possibly the Tennessee Valley area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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