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March 2013 General Disco


snowstormcanuck

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Winter wonderland this morning....  coming down hard, but the flake size looks small.

 

 

the string of 40s and cloudy skies has been going since November...this is the worst of the worst.

+1

 

Its not much better around here...lots and lots of clouds this winter/early spring..or so it would seem.  I think we had one stretch of several consecutive days with sunshine..other then that its been very difficult to string together more then a couple of days of sunshine.  Another thing is the weekends have been just rotten the past month or so...  Sure its kept our overnite temps mild, but days just blow with cloudcover (imo).

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12z GGEM joins the Euro with the Sunday-Monday overrunning deal for parts of IL, IN, MI, and OH. Verbatim, really lays the smack down on LAF...but becomes marginal/over to rain towards the end. 12z GFS still south, not as interested, but took a baby step in the direction of the foreign models.

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My three inch snowfall from Tuesday night is slowly melting away with grass reappearing.  I like that the models are becoming more active as we continue the march into spring. March 21/22 looks like a significant system for the midwest if this pans out as presently seen on the 12z GFS this Thursday morning.

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12z GGEM joins the Euro with the Sunday-Monday overrunning deal for parts of IL, IN, MI, and OH. Verbatim, really lays the smack down on LAF...but becomes marginal/over to rain towards the end. 12z GFS still south, not as interested, but took a baby step in the direction of the foreign models.

Haven't really looked at this too much but an obvious potential issue is temps. Kinda seems like we are setting up another American/foreign model battle?

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I usually don't disagree with you Josh, as you are many times the voice of reason among MI posters, but in this case I do. When you say that snow cover adds nothing new to the books, that's wrong. Days of snowcover is recorded and looked at by weather historians such as yourself. I do understand that you are looking at it from a winter weather weenie's point of view.

I know that many people here would rather hear fingernails across a chalkboard than see the term stat padding used, but in this case, Mike's comment is an example of the proper use of the term. Any time that the ground is bare, a measurable snow falls, then is gone within 1-4 hours I consider a stat padder.

For example, years into the future, I'd look at this year and say that it was a good late Dec. snow and good stretch of winter weather with the snowcover in early Jan. However, Feb. was full of stat padders, at least in this area. Many days of measurable snowfall adding up to double digit totals, but nothing over 1.5" on the ground for any one day, averaging just a trace.

To be honest I dont agree with me. I was using the snowcover example as a way to show how silly stat padding is to me. Granted if there was such a term your example would be the proper definition (the term was coined on amwx in 2011-12 and is now used for EVERY kind and amount of snow). But this is the bottom line. Weather records have the total snowfall for the day, the total liquid in the snow (which shows you right there what type of ratio, even accounting for some error), the 12z snow depth, and of course the high/low. There isn't a winter ever we have not had varying types of snow. There's always been 4-1 ratio slush and 30-1 ratio fluff and everything in between. We still do have it all, the problem is now EVERYTHING is considered stat padding on amwx :lol:

Have no fear ESPECIALLY with mr expressing my annoyance of the term, every snow in this possible stormy period will be called stat padding. Bring it on!

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Beautiful early Spring day here. Plentiful sunshine and temps have responded. DTW just hit 40. Lol on any typical day that temp would be a non story. But the strong march sun makes it feel much warmer out. People are outside enjoying this and the disc golfers are filling the park. Robins are out in full force too. They are gonna hate the snow tomorrow night. 

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Beautiful early Spring day here. Plentiful sunshine and temps have responded. DTW just hit 40. Lol on any typical day that temp would be a non story. But the strong march sun makes it feel much warmer out. People are outside enjoying this and the disc golfers are filling the park. Robins are out in full force too. They are gonna hate the snow tomorrow night. 

 

Long range GFS anomaly's are cold, but with a base average of 45-50 at the end of the run... its going to verify with temps in the upper 30's. Low temps will be much lower than average though.

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Long range GFS anomaly's are cold, but with a base average of 45-50 at the end of the run... its going to verify with temps in the upper 30's. Low temps will be much lower than average though.

 

Its gonna be chilly for sure. But you are setting up for a fail by calling high temps this far out. The long range guidance can literally change in a heartbeat. We have seen this time after time, year after year. I dont even know why NCEP wastes precious bandwidth on 200hrs +. 

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Its gonna be chilly for sure. But you are setting up for a fail by calling high temps this far out. The long range guidance can literally change in a heartbeat. We have seen this time after time, year after year. I dont even know why NCEP wastes precious bandwidth on 200hrs +. 

 

The main confidence builder I see is the run to run consistency. The GFS was flipping between warm and cold on nearly every run, its locked into cold and hasn't thrown a single "Warm" bone in quite a few days. If there was above average temps, we would see some type of random signal.

 

Who knows... I prefer warmth anyhow, but I also like the idea of a strong negative anomaly after last years major positive one.

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