gosaints Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 one mans junk is other mans treasure. Very true to each their own Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 LOL Morch, Looks like loads of interesting weather... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 one mans junk is other mans treasure. So all the triumphant Morch calls that have been made certainly look to fall FLAT, and not only should it be colder than normal at least the first half of March, some record lows may fall if some of the latest GFS/Euro runs verify. So wouldnt you know with a Morch fail we go right onto "it sucks, this is worse than Morch, no exciting weather, boring, etc etc etc etc". i will take my chances with cold, thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So all the triumphant Morch calls that have been made certainly look to fall FLAT, and not only should it be colder than normal at least the first half of March, some record lows may fall if some of the latest GFS/Euro runs verify. So wouldnt you know with a Morch fail we go right onto "it sucks, this is worse than Morch, no exciting weather, boring, etc etc etc etc". i will take my chances with cold, thank you! Because it is boring. Hot and boring (death ridge) and cold and boring are both ****ty to me personally because they're both boring, simple as that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So all the triumphant Morch calls that have been made certainly look to fall FLAT, and not only should it be colder than normal at least the first half of March, some record lows may fall if some of the latest GFS/Euro runs verify. So wouldnt you know with a Morch fail we go right onto "it sucks, this is worse than Morch, no exciting weather, boring, etc etc etc etc". i will take my chances with cold, thank you! Because it is boring. Hot and boring (death ridge) and cold and boring are both ****ty to me personally because they're both boring, simple as that. The traditional snow locations have good snow... Let the season go on and let's reap back the lost time those places endured last year and this December's slow start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Because it is boring. Hot and boring (death ridge) and cold and boring are both ****ty to me personally because they're both boring, simple as that. Who said its going to be boring? Some are just assuming it will be cold and dry because they have to find something negative for the cold misers. Bottom line is many here wanted a "Morch" and severe and since its clear thats NOT happening (at least the morch part, though to what extent the cold will be is unclear) they immediately find something to negate the cold to automatically assume rather than increasing our wintry chances it will be bone dry. Just like a switch flipped from the "morch, even if its stormy it wont be snow, and on and on" attitude. There have been many wintry Marches in years past and there is no formula on any model that will change the majorities minds, because since Ive been coming to these board people have a VERY skewed opinion of March, as if it takes some unheard of pattern to get more than a wet snow that melts in a day. And the 3 of the last 4 Marches being warm has not helped that opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 The thing about this time of year is that there are competing interests so to speak. A substantial percentage of folks probably wouldn't mind flipping right into spring while another substantial amount would like to see winter keep rolling. The pattern looks coldish (whether it's anything extreme for the time of year remains to be seen) so that is half the battle for winter lovers. Obviously storm threats can pop up even when things aren't looking good so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 18z GFS shows record cold..at least for here... obviously its probably horribly wrong, but the first 2 weeks of march look like winter, not spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Who said its going to be boring? Some are just assuming it will be cold and dry because they have to find something negative for the cold misers. Bottom line is many here wanted a "Morch" and severe and since its clear thats NOT happening (at least the morch part, though to what extent the cold will be is unclear) they immediately find something to negate the cold to automatically assume rather than increasing our wintry chances it will be bone dry. Just like a switch flipped from the "morch, even if its stormy it wont be snow, and on and on" attitude. There have been many wintry Marches in years past and there is no formula on any model that will change the majorities minds, because since Ive been coming to these board people have a VERY skewed opinion of March, as if it takes some unheard of pattern to get more than a wet snow that melts in a day. And the 3 of the last 4 Marches being warm has not helped that opinion. Pretty much every model in the Mid/Long Range. Also, I'm not sure where you're getting the idea that "Morch" always leads to severe, the ridge responsible can block up the pattern and prevent systems from properly ejecting east of the Plains, a progressive pattern with decently spaced out wavelengths is much favored over this (enough to reload the Gulf, but not enough to become stagnant and blocky between storm systems), and the pattern DOES look cold and dry for a decent part of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 12z GEFS try to make it not completely boring in the 11-15 day range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah I think the first half will be below normal and then slightly above normal to normal the 2nd half. Would be nice to see some winter action through the 10th or so. Try to make up for early winter sluggishness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Who said its going to be boring? Some are just assuming it will be cold and dry because they have to find something negative for the cold misers. Bottom line is many here wanted a "Morch" and severe and since its clear thats NOT happening (at least the morch part, though to what extent the cold will be is unclear) they immediately find something to negate the cold to automatically assume rather than increasing our wintry chances it will be bone dry. Just like a switch flipped from the "morch, even if its stormy it wont be snow, and on and on" attitude. There have been many wintry Marches in years past and there is no formula on any model that will change the majorities minds, because since Ive been coming to these board people have a VERY skewed opinion of March, as if it takes some unheard of pattern to get more than a wet snow that melts in a day. And the 3 of the last 4 Marches being warm has not helped that opinion. What a strange meltdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 What a strange meltdown. overuse of the word meltdown on here... hardly a meltdown....LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 overuse of the word meltdown on here... hardly a meltdown....LOL! Not really but ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Well the GFS pushes back to historic cold outbreak that is being proclaimed as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Don Sutherland just upped the ante for March. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2158328'>http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2158328 Too early to hand out kudos, but QVectorman was hinting a cold March as well, weeks ago. And mentioned March 1960 as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well the GFS pushes back to historic cold outbreak that is being proclaimed as well Would be interesting if it verified to balance the record warmth of March 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Donny Baseball doesn't swing and miss often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Never bet against Don S... epic March coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Don Sutherland just upped the ante for March. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/37584-2012-13-winter-medium-range-discussion/?p=2158328 Too early to hand out kudos, but QVectorman was hinting a cold March as well, weeks ago. And mentioned March 1960 as well. 11" here that March. Something tells me to take the under this time but chances are we get something with the cold air sticking around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 March 2010 January 2013. 2 right off the top of my head. He needs to wait and watch the evolution the 2nd week of March. If the WPO vortex undercuts the PAC and upstream blocking fades, that won't cut it in March. Everybody's wrong sometimes. Don is one of the better non-mets...his track record speaks for itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 March 2010 January 2013. 2 right off the top of my head. He needs to wait and watch the evolution the 2nd week of March. If the WPO vortex undercuts the PAC and upstream blocking fades, that won't cut it in March. Lol, he knows his stuff, believe me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 11" here that March. Something tells me to take the under this time but chances are we get something with the cold air sticking around. Easy under. March 1960 was pretty big for the Southeast. That would be fitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Easy under. March 1960 was pretty big for the Southeast. That would be fitting. I know its like the dgex of LR models, but its the only weeklies I have access to. The CFS had March as an absolute torch for the last several months, but the last several weeks it has been trending colder and colder and colder. Its now quite blue. And now that its weeklies are in view, they have cold lasting straight through March for most of the CONUS. A big snowstorm can happen regardless of how warm/cold March is, and cold by no means guarentees it...but if I want to maximize my snow chances late in the season, Ill take a cold weather pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 La crosse talks of the possibility of so.e nice warmth next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 La crosse talks of the possibility of so.e nice warmth next week Really? Nah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Really hope we see at least one storm in March to bring our snowfall up to average. Wouldn't mind one single digit low either. I think we'll see at least one day of temperatures in the mid to upper 50s in the second half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Really? Nah. Nice u post 11 to 15 day anomalies. Is that next week? Don't think so. Plus its the operational gfs you posted from 252 to 360? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 La Crosse is usually pretty good so I don't doubt them on it... BEYOND THIS TIME PERIOD...THE ARE SIGNS IN BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWFTHAT THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL MAKE A DRAMATIC SHIFT IN THE 500 MBPATTERN AS A STRONG 500 MB RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRALUNITED STATES. THE ECMWF HAS A MUCH STRONGER RIDGE THAN THE GFS. AS ARESULT...ITS 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE STANDARD DEVIATIONARE UP TO 2 ACROSS THE DAKOTAS BY WEDNESDAY. THERE IS ACTUALLYSUPPORT FOR IN THE PACIFIC AS THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION MOVESFROM PHASE 6 TO PHASE 7. BOTH OF THESE PHASES...SUPPORT WARMTHACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS.[/quote] Fri/Sat both look quite mild, at least on this run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Looks like the MJO might wander where it is for right now. For a ridge to pop in the east, it might have to fight a -NAO and -AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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