Feb 23-24 OBS Thread

[It's Always Sunny]

In Snowell?  shocking

 

1.5" seems low-ell to me too but I was at work for the past 8 hours, got back and that's what I had. Melting can be assumed, so 2" (at least) if we want to nit-pick and add it all up. It was snowing very nicely with nice aggregates at 2:00 PM but it wasn't sticking much until it really started coming down. Regardless, roadways were far too warm for accumulation.

[CoastalWx]

The boundary layer was toast eduggs so I will give you that, but get into this hills and it's a Different ball game.

[N. OF PIKE]

I'm currently in Lowell and my driveway had no more than 1.5".

lowell was relatively screwed.....they were cold enough for a good chunk at least for some accums' but the qpf wasn't there as well as some other spots but i mean why did areas 20 miles west at elevations around 300' accumulate so much better maybe ...they were in between alot of bands......the merrimack valley continues to get bent over ......so has hubb dave relatively speaking.

 

the merrimack valley's streak has been a few years (relatively speaking)

[ORH_wxman]

When I was younger it seemed like Albany was always the jackpot for winter storms... now it seems to be ORH. 

 

Was it just me, or did Albany have a string of good storms in the late 90s and early 2000s?

 

 

ALB had back to back 20"+ jackpots in the Christams 2002 and Jan 3-4, 2003 storms 10 days apart. They also did very well in the Mar 1993 superstorm. They've had some great storms....but recently in a bit of a rut.

[eduggs]

Approaching 2". Pretty much as expected, but I did not see the reason to be so down for area in Maine and NH on down to ORH. This wasn't mesoscale, you had larger scale synoptic features driving the snow....the inv trough was only part of the puzzle.

Maybe you are confusing my posts with someone eleses.  I was down for lower elevations and the coastal plain.  But I argued for this to be a primarily NH/ME storm.  I would have capped ORH county at 6" until it became clear it was ripping.  It seemed too much could go wrong.  And for some, even in the targeted region, it clearly did.  It's not like I was suggested 1-3.  Good call Will.

 

There is obviously some overlap between the synoptic and meso scales.  I think after the initial burst on Sat night that this was primarily mesoscale driven.  The radar reflectivities during the day, model vertical charts, and snowfall distribution would seem to argue for that.

[It's Always Sunny]

Just went outside, and measured cool, unmarked surfaces....about 3".

[ORH_wxman]

Maybe you are confusing my posts with someone eleses.  I was down for lower elevations and the coastal plain.  But I argued for this to be a primarily NH/ME storm.  I would have capped ORH county at 6" until it became clear it was ripping.  It seemed too much could go wrong.  And for some, even in the targeted region, it clearly did.  It's not like I was suggested 1-3.  Good call Will.

 

There is obviously some overlap between the synoptic and meso scales.  I think after the initial burst on Sat night that this was primarily mesoscale driven.  The radar reflectivities during the day, model vertical charts, and snowfall distribution would seem to argue for that.

 

 

I agree there was a lot of mesoscale stuff today and thank you for the kudos. I'll def bust again soon enough.

 

However, I think there are levels of mesoscale interaction. A hurricane is considered a mesoscale phenonmenon and so is a tornado...well obviously the two affect much different scopes of arial coverage. I thought today argued for a fairly wide area of decent precip...my only concern was the boundary layer which I dismissed for the most part in the ORH hills where it would be a minor factor versus the coastal plain. Most of SNE north of the CT border and east of the CT river had pretty decent QPF totals. I didn't think this event argued for a narrow band of heavy snow while everyone else got screwed.

[joey2002]

ALB had back to back 20"+ jackpots in the Christams 2002 and Jan 3-4, 2003 storms 10 days apart. They also did very well in the Mar 1993 superstorm. They've had some great storms....but recently in a bit of a rut.

 

Thanks Will, those are a couple of the storms I was likely thinking of, I'm guessing they were nor'easters that cut far enough west to jackpot ALB?

[eduggs]

Eduggs, why don't you just say " Hey Will that was a good forecast you had..I was wrong."

I don't understand why you go out of your way to single me out.  I told him it was a good call.  I think it was a good call.  A day or two ago when I told him I thought his 5-9/6-10 was a little high... my very next post was that I went and took a closer look at the data, and I thought the numbers were decent.  Then I said I would stay low for Bos.  I thought the coastal would have minimal direct impact.  I thought temps would be a problem outside the hills.  I thought this would be primarily a ski country storm... and this was back when most outlets were showing heavy snow down to Tolland.  And you want me to talk about how I was wrong.

 

I have complimented Will's forecasts more than any other Met on here.  But I won't always agree on every little detail.  What's the problem with that?

[ORH_wxman]

Thanks Will, those are a couple of the storms I was likely thinking of, I'm guessing they were nor'easters that cut far enough west to jackpot ALB?

 

 

Both were good storms for interior SNE, but the jackpot was west of us

 

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow122702.gif

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/box/images/snow010303.gif

[eduggs]

Well you and Socks share that common denominator and regardless, it wasn't the right logic that you threw out.

Two different people with different arguments.

[CoastalWx]

I don't understand why you go out of your way to single me out. I told him it was a good call. I think it was a good call. A day or two ago when I told him I thought his 5-9/6-10 was a little high... my very next post was that I went and took a closer look at the data, and I thought the numbers were decent. Then I said I would stay low for Bos. I thought the coastal would have minimal direct impact. I thought temps would be a problem outside the hills. I thought this would be primarily a ski country storm... and this was back when most outlets were showing heavy snow down to Tolland. And you want me to talk about how I was wrong.

I have complimented Will's forecasts more than any other Met on here. But I won't always agree on every little detail. What's the problem with that?

No problem, just that we disagreed on this being more of a narrow area that gets heavier snow.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't think was an easy forecast despite getting it right for ORH, it could have busted here. If it did, it would have been because we lacked QPF and not because of the boundary layer. If it had been March 24th vs Feb 24th, I may have been more concerned with the boundary layer here given a good number of hours of the snow was 1 mile to 3/4 vis with some occasional 1/2 to 1/4 mixed in. Usually you want solid moderate or a night time event that late in the season even over 900 feet in the interior...but this one was not that late.

[CoastalWx]

Anyways I think the toughest call was Ray's area.

[OceanStWx]

Maybe you are confusing my posts with someone eleses.  I was down for lower elevations and the coastal plain.  But I argued for this to be a primarily NH/ME storm.  I would have capped ORH county at 6" until it became clear it was ripping.  It seemed too much could go wrong.  And for some, even in the targeted region, it clearly did.  It's not like I was suggested 1-3.  Good call Will.

 

There is obviously some overlap between the synoptic and meso scales.  I think after the initial burst on Sat night that this was primarily mesoscale driven.  The radar reflectivities during the day, model vertical charts, and snowfall distribution would seem to argue for that.

 

That much I can vouch for. I know we had the discussion about rates overcoming boundary layer issues up this way, and you conceded that point and agreed that we would do well ultimately up here.

 

There have been plenty of others that looked not so kindly on the forecast otherwise. Not just here, but our Facebook messages are littered with comments about a more significant storm that forecast, or too much snow was forecast in the first place. Can't win sometimes.

[eduggs]

That's exactly what it was though...a local call. I didn't forecast that for the coastal plain. You told me to go lower and that ORH does well on thump snows, not so much this type of stuff.

I believe that.  I thought there was enough inter and intra model discontinuity to warrant caution in the absence of a widespread synoptic event.  Starting at 6" is a bold call when a lot can go wrong.  It worked out perfectly in this case, but that doesn't mean that in the long run, a more conservative approach in cases such as this is unwarranted.

 

I think the ORH snowfall advantage is muted in quasi mesoscale events because it introduces uncertainty from geographical luck. 

[ORH_wxman]

That much I can vouch for. I know we had the discussion about rates overcoming boundary layer issues up this way, and you conceded that point and agreed that we would do well ultimately up here.

 

There have been plenty of others that looked not so kindly on the forecast otherwise. Not just here, but our Facebook messages are littered with comments about a more significant storm that forecast, or too much snow was forecast in the first place. Can't win sometimes.

 

 

I heard people today yelling bust at 9am when we had 2" of snow and 4-7" was forecast by some on air mets!!!....lol, I guess they should have yelled bust becase 4-7 ended up too low for ORH. In this day and age of instant info online rather than having to wait for TV schedules, very few people are patient.

[eduggs]

The boundary layer was toast eduggs so I will give you that, but get into this hills and it's a Different ball game.

Thank you.  I didn't think ORH would have a problem with temps, but I thought it was risky to count on heavy snow when there was question about where the heaviest lift would set up, and for how long.  Turns out I was wrong in this case.

[eduggs]

That much I can vouch for. I know we had the discussion about rates overcoming boundary layer issues up this way, and you conceded that point and agreed that we would do well ultimately up here.

 

There have been plenty of others that looked not so kindly on the forecast otherwise. Not just here, but our Facebook messages are littered with comments about a more significant storm that forecast, or too much snow was forecast in the first place. Can't win sometimes.

Great forecast.  As soon as I saw the radar this morning I thought of your posts.  Really good job.

[ORH_wxman]

I believe that.  I thought there was enough inter and intra model discontinuity to warrant caution in the absence of a widespread synoptic event.  Starting at 6" is a bold call when a lot can go wrong.  It worked out perfectly in this case, but that doesn't mean that in the long run, a more conservative approach in cases such as this is unwarranted.

 

I think the ORH snowfall advantage is muted in quasi mesoscale events because it introduces uncertainty from geographical luck. 

 

 

I see your point about luck in mesoscale events, but I do not entirely agree with you here. This was a classic event where ORH had a mesoscale advantage vs the CT valley or even places south of them like NE CT because we had an easterly component to the wind all day long with plenty of synoptic moisture leftover. ORH cleans up on an easterly wind when large scale synoptic forcing cannot do anything to overcome it (like in between CSI bands or something). There was a chance we could still get screwed...I fully acknowledge that...I won't pretend that these events are easy to forecast, but all else equal, I thought the ORH hills north of the pike where their easterly upslope component is quite strong would do pretty well here as long as the model parameters didn't change too much....i.e. good H5 vort track, easterl component to the boundayr layer wind and good convergence from the west.

[OceanStWx]

I heard people today yelling bust at 9am when we had 2" of snow and 4-7" was forecast by some on air mets!!!....lol, I guess they should have yelled bust becase 4-7 ended up too low for ORH. In this day and age of instant info online rather than having to wait for TV schedules, very few people are patient.

 

Exactly. My snowfall map that went out as we issued the watch actually turned out to be too low across most of the area. Even 12 hours after I issued it people were making comments about it being too high. We ticked down from widespread 8-10" with spot 10-14" to 6-8"  before the inverted trough really started looking robust. Our final forecast for this event ended up looking more like the first one than anything in the middle. I think we played it fairly well: watch, advisory, then pull the trigger on warnings once the guidance really settled on the consensus location of the trough.

[CoastalWx]

Thank you. I didn't think ORH would have a problem with temps, but I thought it was risky to count on heavy snow when there was question about where the heaviest lift would set up, and for how long. Turns out I was wrong in this case.

It was also one of those deals where it adds up too. 2-4 overnight and then an easy 2-4 during the day...heck you are at 4-8 already. This is for the high spots of course.

[weatherMA]

Exactly. My snowfall map that went out as we issued the watch actually turned out to be too low across most of the area. Even 12 hours after I issued it people were making comments about it being too high. We ticked down from widespread 8-10" with spot 10-14" to 6-8"  before the inverted trough really started looking robust. Our final forecast for this event ended up looking more like the first one than anything in the middle. I think we played it fairly well: watch, advisory, then pull the trigger on warnings once the guidance really settled on the consensus location of the trough.

Great work! Forecast worked out pretty well. Just make sure to never put Plymouth in a watch or warning ever.

[ORH_wxman]

I don't think its a complete coincidence that models will show a large dropoff just west of the ORH hills spine in these setups. We have seen it many times. I think that supports my post above about not being totally due to luck. There's a reason models often show a cutoff there...esp the better resolution models, but even the GFS catches it sometimes.

 

There's def still an element of luck involved, but I'm not sure it is the primary element in this case unlike some other purely norlun instability events.

[It's Always Sunny]

Great work! Forecast worked out pretty well. Just make sure to never put Plymouth in a watch or warning ever.

Dude if you were up in PSU in '08 that was the year if I remember correctly. It snowed like every day (so it seemed lol).

[eduggs]

I agree there was a lot of mesoscale stuff today and thank you for the kudos. I'll def bust again soon enough.

 

However, I think there are levels of mesoscale interaction. A hurricane is considered a mesoscale phenonmenon and so is a tornado...well obviously the two affect much different scopes of arial coverage. I thought today argued for a fairly wide area of decent precip...my only concern was the boundary layer which I dismissed for the most part in the ORH hills where it would be a minor factor versus the coastal plain. Most of SNE north of the CT border and east of the CT river had pretty decent QPF totals. I didn't think this event argued for a narrow band of heavy snow while everyone else got screwed.

Well this was not like lake effect, good point.

I thought it was clear there would be a fairly widespread area of precip, with imbedded heavier stuff.  But I thought there was some question as to where the heavier stuff would set up.  The globals, the GFS for example, had some hefty QPF in ENY and then in SVT that didn't quite materialize.  I would not have had the balls to go above 6" in Mass, and 8" in NH/Maine.  Some of you guys did.  And that's why we come on here to read what you think.

[Ice Warrior commander]

6.8" storm total as of 12AM 25th here.

 

1.3"  yesterday evening - 23rd/ early morning 24th before the sleet and ZR occured.  Then 5.5" today up until 12AM - 25th.

 

 

4 " of cement beneath that gives me a total  snowdepth of 10 now including  some compaction of the snow this evening.

 

-SN  VSBY > than 1 mile now.

 

30 F

[OceanStWx]

Dude if you were up in PSU in '08 that was the year if I remember correctly. It snowed like every day (so it seemed lol).

 

Just 131" a couple towns over in Meredith.

[It's Always Sunny]

Just 131" a couple towns over in Meredith.

Yeah no thanks lol. I'm not a fan of the snow but I'm not gonna lie, today was pretty cool seeing the aggregates. 

[ORH_wxman]

Official airport totals in SNE:

 

BOS: 1.8"

ORH: 8.1"

PVD: 0.3"

BDL: T