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Feb 23-24 OBS Thread


free_man

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I think they're going to bust pretty hard...surface temps are in the mid to upper 30s, much warmer than 850s along the southern Maine coastline right now. 0z GFS has 2-3 frames of .1" QPF, but that's light stuff falling during the day in late February with mild surface temperatures. The 0z NAM looked a lot better for Maine, but the profile is still pretty mild until tomorrow morning, which means some QPF will be wasted, and snow won't stick easily to a wet ground.

 

The area of 8-10" seems overdone. I would have gone a general 1-3" with 2-4" in the foothills, maybe 3-6" if you lean towards wetter guidance like the NAM. There's just not that much liquid left once the mid-levels cool as the coastal cranks, and surface temperatures are mild along the coastline. 

Whoops....

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