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Feb 23-24 OBS Thread


free_man

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  On 2/24/2013 at 5:54 AM, nzucker said:

I think they're going to bust pretty hard...surface temps are in the mid to upper 30s, much warmer than 850s along the southern Maine coastline right now. 0z GFS has 2-3 frames of .1" QPF, but that's light stuff falling during the day in late February with mild surface temperatures. The 0z NAM looked a lot better for Maine, but the profile is still pretty mild until tomorrow morning, which means some QPF will be wasted, and snow won't stick easily to a wet ground.

 

The area of 8-10" seems overdone. I would have gone a general 1-3" with 2-4" in the foothills, maybe 3-6" if you lean towards wetter guidance like the NAM. There's just not that much liquid left once the mid-levels cool as the coastal cranks, and surface temperatures are mild along the coastline. 

Whoops....

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  On 2/24/2013 at 4:18 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Actually this is heavy snow now...wow. Really just picked up.

 

It comes and goes....When it comes, it's ripping great flaeks.  When it goes, it melts pretty quickly.  Makes me hope that Wednesday event can come largely at night--can only hlep an iffy situation.

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