andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 100 kt+ H5 jet streak now wrapping on the SE side of this thing per mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Echoes weakened in Wichita, but trying to pull back in so let your heart not be troubled. That was lead waa/uvv lifting out. Too bad for points south and east of ICT that it’s too warm for snow. Anyway light/mdt snow to get back in ICT this afternoon. Heavy snow will move into Wichita from the southwest this evening as the upper low slides to the south and southeast of town. Note on radar and VIS loops the snow in the Panhandles remains robust and that snow forecast to lift back into south-central Kansas tonight. Interesting that last week the incredible waa slammed Kansas; this week it will be the upper low portion. KC is also in a great place with the stacked system going to their southeast tonight. KC is forecast to remain in the sweet spot of lift for several hours esp if the low pivots at the right place in southern Missouri. So once again two cities I call home get slammed. On the severe side, looks like the coastal/marine warm front made it ashore in Louisiana. Surprised SPC did not raise tornado probabilities, esp with that meso they issued, but probably not a MDT risk. That said, a significant tornado or two with one good supercell does not require MDT if not widespread. Hattiesburg was a good SLGT since it was the only one, even though impactful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 On the severe side, looks like the coastal/marine warm front made it ashore in Louisiana. Surprised SPC did not raise tornado probabilities, esp with that meso they issued, but probably not a MDT risk. That said, a significant tornado or two with one good supercell does not require MDT if not widespread. Hattiesburg was a good SLGT since it was the only one, even though impactful. Yeah, I'm a bit surprised too, considering the spacious 5% tor probs and the wording in the latest outlook suggesting enhanced potential in several areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Reports on Twitter out of the TX Panhandle aren't pretty: Breaking News Storm @breakingstorm National Guard units are on their way to assist motorists stranded by storm along Interstate 40 in the Texas Panhandle - @NBCNews The Weather Channel @weatherchannel Emerg mgmt in Amarillo report plows, fire crews, other 1st responders stuck in snow responding to calls. Travel strongly discouraged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This gradient for OUN is painful. 12Z spits out 6-8" over OKC now with just 1-3" here. Would fit in with the past few storms here, though. I could easily see 12 or 14 inches of snow in places such as Guthrie or Kingfisher with maybe 8 inches in Edmond and 1-2 in south OKC, those sort of gradients have definitely occurred before, there was a storm awhile back where 9 inches fell at KPWA with 3 at KOKC, thats maybe 5 miles on a striaght line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Reports on Twitter out of the TX Panhandle aren't pretty: Yeah, AMA and vicinity is getting absolutely raked, it must be otherworldly out there. There's a major band crossing I-40 east of AMA currently, 30+ dbz returns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...ERN OK PANHANDLE...WRN INTO N-CNTRL OK....S-CNTRL KS CONCERNING...BLIZZARD VALID 251654Z - 252230Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE/SHIFT E/NE ACROSS THE MCD AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE ALSO WILL SHIFT E/NE INTO PORTIONS OF NW OK/S-CNTRL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...HEAVY SNOW BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF LUBBOCK NORTH-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NW OK WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SNOWFALL RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SFC LOW LOCATED BETWEEN CDS AND SPS AT 16Z WILL SLOWLY SHIFT E/NE ALONG THE RED RIVER INTO S-CNTRL OK THIS AFTERNOON IN TANDEM WITH UPPER LOW. AS THIS OCCURS...HEAVIEST SNOW WILL SHIFT E/NE IN CONCERT WITH FAVORABLE DEFORMATION ZONE/850 MB FRONTOGENESIS FROM THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK/S-CNTRL KS. EVIDENCE OF THIS EWD SHIFT WAS NOTED FROM NEAR END TOWARD CSM IN OK AS RAIN WAS CHANGING TO SNOW OVER THE LAST HOUR. THIS TRANSITION WILL CONTINUE EWD ALONG/TO THE WEST OF THE I-35/I-44 CORRIDOR IN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG 850 MB JET ON THE BACK SIDE OF LOW WILL OVERSPREAD WRN INTO N-CNTRL OK/S-CNTRL KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. ..LEITMAN.. 02/25/2013 ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Reports on Twitter out of the TX Panhandle aren't pretty: Breaking News Storm @breakingstorm National Guard units are on their way to assist motorists stranded by storm along Interstate 40 in the Texas Panhandle - @NBCNews The Weather Channel @weatherchannel Emerg mgmt in Amarillo report plows, fire crews, other 1st responders stuck in snow responding to calls. Travel strongly discouraged! Why are people even on the roads to begin with, hell why is I-40 even open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NWS Amarillo: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX833 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013...CRIPPLING BLIZZARD ROARS ON....UPDATE...GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK. THE NWS OFFICE NOW HAS OVER 13 INCHESON THE GROUND WITH 3-4 FOOT DRIFTS AND A MAX GUST TO 58 MPH. THE SETX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN SLOW TO FILL IN WITH SNOW AFTER THETHUNDERSTORMS THAT DROPPED HEAVY RAIN LAST NIGHT AND THESE AREASMIGHT END UP WITH AMOUNTS CLOSER TO THE 8 INCH SIDE THAN THE 14 INCHSIDE OF THEIR RANGE. AT THE END OF THE DAY...THE HEAVIEST TOTALSWILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE ALONG A PALO DURO CANYON TO AMARILLO TOSTINNETT TO PERRYTON LINE.SOME RECORDS SEEM TO BE IN A PRECARIOUS POSITION TODAY. THE FIRST ISAN ALL-TIME 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD AT AMARILLO OF 20.6 INCHES FROMMARCH 25-26 1934. WE WILL LIKELY GET VERY CLOSE OR SURPASS THISNUMBER BY THIS AFTERNOON.THE OTHER IS THE ALL-TIME STATE OF TEXAS 24 HOUR SNOWFALL RECORD OF25 INCHES IN FOLLETT SET MARCH 28 2009. SOMEWHERE IN THEPERRYTON/STINNETT/BORGER/AMARILLO AREA COULD APPROACH THIS VALUE BYTHIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I've been among the biggest pessimists for OKC/OUN all along, but the RAP is awfully aggressive in keeping the comma head alive and well into the early morning around here. Taken verbatim 3-5" would be in reach, even down I-35 toward PVJ/ADM, provided surface temperatures cooperate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 City of Amarillo trying to get barricades up across entry ramps to I-40. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Just talked with a weather buddy near McConnell AFB, picked up 1/2" in 30 minutes, visiblility 1/8 of mile with the first snow band that pushed through, radar showing a secondary band getting ready to move back into the Wichita area. Looks to be a bit stronger than the first band.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Supercells look to be developing across LA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 17" Reported in Amarillo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 10% sig-hatched tor probs added for later on in S AL/SW GA/FL PH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Srain, am I reading this correctly that the surface low is just south of the Red River somewhere between Dallas and Texarkana? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Taken from http://climate.cod.edu/data/surface/US_zoom/contour/current/US_zoom.fronts.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Looks like the severe side of this is starting to ramp up. Shreveport has issued a couple of warnings lately for Nrn LA most notably a TOR warning near Ashland, LA. Rotation isn't great yet, most likely threat will be spin-ups along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It keeps going between rain/sleet/snow here in Joplin on the front side. I don't think we'll be hitting that 45-50 degree high today when it's down to 34. Looks like we'll flirt with the dry slot later this evening. It'll either be here, or it'll pass just south of here. I've seen some pretty crazy snow rates just to the N and NW of the dry slot so here's hoping! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MoWeatherguy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is that the surface low sitting over NW LA in the post above? Seems further S and E than earlier modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is that the surface low sitting over NW LA in the post above? Seems further S and E than earlier modeled. Looks like it or just to the west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 SPC meso page show an elongated area. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=15# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Is that the surface low sitting over NW LA in the post above? Seems further S and E than earlier modeled. Thats what I was saying to Jomo in the other thread, it seems way further south and east to me also idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It cant decide what it wants to do here lol, rain or snow or a mix. It was snowing so heavily for a few minutes there now its mixed with rain All snow here now for the time being, coming down really good and its such a wet thick snow. Temp has dropped down to 34 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18 GFS increasing amounts in northeast oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This definitely crawled out of the Rockies...not atypical as these are almost always slower than the models prog. Impressive stuff in the TX Panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Blizzaction video from Amarillo, NWS office. https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=569404203071482&set=vb.208741279137778&type=2&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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