Natester Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That band on hi-res simulations is comparable to the one we saw in CT with the Blizzard of 2013. Some areas could get absolutely destroyed with monster rates. Don't forget that when this boatload of snow melts, there is going to be some big time flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well the drought should be taking another hit, on the plus side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It is pretty reasonable to believe someone will easily crack 2' possibly 2.5' over NW OK. The drifts are going to be gigantic. Be safe should you head up as roads may be fully impassable for a while. The combination of OKDOT having little to no road weather services and the flat expanses means this truly is life threatening. Snowfall amounts won't be anything I haven't seen in New England, but I have never experienced true blizzard criteria conditions back home or the huge drifting action. That's what I'm really interested in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well the drought should be taking another hit, on the plus side. On a related note, how fast can 20" of snow sublimate in the deserts of W OK? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 0z 4km NAM 60 hour total snowfall: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif'>http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4US_0z/snow60.gif 30"+ in the TX panhandle and NW OK. Weenie out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It is pretty reasonable to believe someone will easily crack 2' possibly 2.5' over NW OK. The drifts are going to be gigantic. Be safe should you head up as roads may be fully impassable for a while. The combination of OKDOT having little to no road weather services and the flat expanses means this truly is life threatening. I believe Buffalo, OK stll holds the single storm record of 36 inches from 1970, they got 25 I think in the March 09 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Snowfall amounts won't be anything I haven't seen in New England, but I have never experienced true blizzard criteria conditions back home or the huge drifting action. That's what I'm really interested in! Well that is what I was hitting on...blizzards in the plains are not like anything you have ever seen. It is a different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I believe Buffalo, OK stll holds the single storm record of 36 inches from 1970, they got 25 I think in the March 09 storm. Seems reasonable here that someone will hit 25". Usually hi-res model snowfall accums are grossly overdone, but with these extreme convective snow events (if they have the synoptics/upper levels right), the values they output are actually pretty reasonable sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well that is what I was hitting on...blizzards in the plains are not like anything you have ever seen. It is a different beast. You arent kidding, I have lived in a lot of places but the storms out here are just so weird and different! Though the biggest beast I have ever seen was in my late teens living in south jersey where we got 28" of snow and had 7.5 feet drifts, that was the baddest of them all! Then the second best was the blizzard we had in 2011 in feb. out here, got 23" from that monster. But yep storms out this way are really different, I think the openness to the land just makes the winds worst and everything look and feel different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
minninni31 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 who will win to Bartlesville from 1 to 10 inches lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 awesome loop of this "lightning threat" product with the HRRR. You can see the storms getting wrapped into the defo band. http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_jet&domain=full&run_time=25+Feb+2013+-+02Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 00Z NAM and GFS are not at all friendly to OUN - we look to once again be on the wrong side of a very sharp gradient. The Euro was always more favorable to us down here than the others so we'll see what the 00Z run holds for us but I'm smelling another whiff for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You need to take the day off and head to NW OK to experience that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You need to take the day off and head to NW OK to experience that. I'm tempted, but on top of having class and work I should be doing, I'm actually concerned about how serious the conditions may get up there. I've been in northeastern cities during lesser snowstorms and the roads were atrocious - I shudder to think what rural NW OK will be like at the height of the storm. I know it would be meteorologically epic but I have my reservations about potentially getting stranded. Eesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm tempted, but on top of having class and work I should be doing, I'm actually concerned about how serious the conditions may get up there. I've been in northeastern cities during lesser snowstorms and the roads were atrocious - I shudder to think what rural NW OK will be like at the height of the storm. I know it would be meteorologically epic but I have my reservations about potentially getting stranded. Eesh. I'm with you there. True blizzards on the Plains are serious business, and unlike storm chasing, there's no way to selectively avoid their real dangers short of a) arriving at the target ahead of time (i.e., within the next few hours), and being prepared to stay holed up in a motel for a couple days if necessary. Also, baro is correct in pointing out that OK is much less equipped to deal with the roads than KS north. It's crushing to pass on seeing powerhouse storms like this so close-by, but unless your calendar is free for several days at just the right time, it's really tough to pull off. To put our "plowing equipment" into perspective, in the Christmas Eve 2009 blizzard, even main roads in Norman were hairy for 2WD vehicles a week afterward. We're hardly more prepared for huge storms that require constant plowing than FL, it seems. Granted, the interstates will probably get taken care of by sometime Tuesday at the latest, but anything else (even the NW Passage) I'm not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Just had a 21G69 ob at the Mesonet in the Wichitas a few minutes ago with a small line segment rolling through. Sure would be a nice consolation to get some decent storms here the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Saw this posted on facebook. Convective heat burst in Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There was a fairly large area of TSSN around AMA earlier...even some 30kft+ tops with the activity. Oh, and for the lolz... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cody Ervin Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Currently thinking 12-18" for the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas where very heavy snow could just sit over this area. Believe it or not, the best mid level lift really beings to crank just east of there. BUT it looks to be warmer in southeast and south central Kansas, so while the bands may be heavy and there may be isolated thunderstorms, the snow might have problems changing over. Farther northeast into western Missouri and eastern Kansas, the mid level lift looks to be good and the air should be colder. This area I believe could see localized banding with thundernsnow possible. 8-14" in this area, though I'll have to keep a close eye on that as some very localized areas could flirt with that 14" amount. Here is my thundersnow potential map: I'd like to put the panhandles in a high risk, but well see how much mid level lift can make it there. Here is my snowfall totals map: To view more of my analysis and a video I made explaining this event, click here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rockchalk83 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 NWS Wichita pulled the trigger on a Blizzard Warning for areas along and south of US 54 highway until Noon Tuesday. The concern is with the intense isentropic lift moving into the area as the system really gets wound up. 900mb wind speeds from the 06z NAM-WRF are for 60-70 kts across the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 TSSN ongoing from LUB to AMA at this hour. The storm is moving a bit slower than guidance had suggested and continues to deepen with a general 3-5 mb per hour pressure falls. Some locations across the TX/OK Panhandle will likely exceed the 2 FT mark with even higher localized amounts. Winds are gusting to 61 near LUB with a couple of isolated gusts to near 70 from the Texas Tech Mesonet. TXDOT has ceased plowing operations across all of the TX panhandle and virtually all roads/State HWY's and I-40/I-27 are closed. VIS are now 0 across the Region. State Command Operation Center emphasizes no travel ATT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 TSSN ongoing from LUB to AMA at this hour. The storm is moving a bit slower than guidance had suggested and continues to deepen with a general 3-5 mb per hour pressure falls. Some locations across the TX/OK Panhandle will likely exceed the 2 FT mark with even higher localized amounts. Winds are gusting to 61 near LUB with a couple of isolated gusts to near 70 from the Texas Tech Mesonet. That whole corridor is just getting pounded right, they even extended the Blizzard Warnings down to Lubbock. Edit: AMA just gusted to 50KT, they are on auto right now though KAMA 251212Z AUTO 36035G50KT 1/4SM R04/2200V3000FT FZFG VV006 M02/M04 A2968 RMK AO2 PK WND 36050/1207 P0002 PWINO FZRANO $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Impressive so far. By looking at the radar another 6-8" possible 02/25/2013 0600 am7 miles ENE of Amarillo, Potter County.Snow m11.0 inch, reported by NWS office. Drifts up to 22 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 A couple of early morning webcam shots from Lubbock and Amarillo: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 TSSN ongoing from LUB to AMA at this hour. The storm is moving a bit slower than guidance had suggested and continues to deepen with a general 3-5 mb per hour pressure falls. Some locations across the TX/OK Panhandle will likely exceed the 2 FT mark with even higher localized amounts. Winds are gusting to 61 near LUB with a couple of isolated gusts to near 70 from the Texas Tech Mesonet. TXDOT has ceased plowing operations across all of the TX panhandle and virtually all roads/State HWY's and I-40/I-27 are closed. VIS are now 0 across the Region. State Command Operation Center emphasizes no travel ATT. So far, this is a very exciting blizzard. It's certainly going to be a highlight storm this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ouamber Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It's hard to tell on satellite, and the system is moving very slow, but can anyone see if it's starting making it's treck NE yet? Or is it going due east currently? Or dragging south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Good lord that satellite is gorgeous. Seriously textbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It's hard to tell on satellite, and the system is moving very slow, but can anyone see if it's starting making it's treck NE yet? Or is it going due east currently? Or dragging south? It still is generally moving E at this time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0925 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...E TX INTO SRN AR/LA/SWRN MS CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 251525Z - 251630Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...HAIL POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SHORT TERM...FOLLOWED BY AN INCREASE IN DAMAGING WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL LATER THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. WW WILL BECOME LIKELY IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DISCUSSION...A VERY STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS ADVANCING EWD ACROSS NWRN TX ATTM...WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION INVOF CDS /CHILDRESS TX/ AND THE SURFACE LOW NOW JUST N OF ABI /ABILENE TX/. S OF THE SURFACE LOW...A PACIFIC COLD FRONT CONTINUES SURGING EWD THROUGH E TX...WHILE THE WARM FRONT EXTENDS SEWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS E TX TO THE VICINITY OF LCH /LAKE CHARLES LA/. WITH ONLY A SLIVER OF LOW-LEVEL GULF AIR INLAND ATTM -- OVER THE HOUSTON METRO AREA AND VICINITY...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FOCUSED ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION WHERE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESIDE ATOP A SURFACE-BASED STABLE LAYER. SCATTERED STORMS ARE ONGOING INVOF THIS AREA...AND SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ALONG WITH ATTENDANT HAIL POTENTIAL. WITH TIME...AS THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE RED RIVER VALLEY...NWD RETREAT OF THE WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING PACIFIC FRONT. WITH TIME...EXPECT THE NOW-STABLE LOWER TROPOSPHERE OVER LA TO BE REPLACED BY A FAVORABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- AND GIVEN VEERING/STRENGTHENING FLOW WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED SEVERE WEATHER IN ADDITION TO THE ONGOING HAIL THREAT. ALONG WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL -- PARTICULARLY IF A LINE OF STORMS EVOLVES ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT...ISOLATED TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY WITH PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELLULAR CONVECTION. ..GOSS/CORFIDI.. 02/25/2013 ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This gradient for OUN is painful. 12Z spits out 6-8" over OKC now with just 1-3" here. Would fit in with the past few storms here, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.