MoWeatherguy Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Yeah I'm not sure of any model showing those kind of amounts for TUL, FYV, up thru SGF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 What is KC's biggest snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NwWhiteOut Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Yeah I'm not sure of any model showing those kind of amounts for TUL, FYV, up thru SGF. It is the weather channel though so any shock there lol? The name of the storm "winter storm rocky" REALLY!! lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 From The Weather Channel - Winter Storm Rocky Interesting that they have OKC, Tulsa, NW Ark, SW MO (Joplin/Springfield) in 3-6 inches Besides overdoing accumulations for those areas, the contours are also too zonal IMO. The trend is slower and more wrapped up farther west. I wouldn't be surprised if LBB gets problematic accumulations, and the I-40 corridor in the Panhandle may well get destroyed with 12"+. For OK, I think the major gradient could setup roughly along a line from Altus to Watonga/Kingfisher to Perry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The 19Z RAP has now picked up on the developing Coastal low SSE of Brownsville. The storm track continues to suggest the 500mb upper low and surface low will pass near or just S of Lubbock while the Coastal low moves NE along the advancing pre frontal trough early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I was just about to draw up my own snow map for fun, but the one just published by NWS OUN is basically what I was thinking. Might sharpen up the gradient a little on the SE side (probably little to nothing SE of I-44). We'll see how they handle the advisory/warning map here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 18z NAM was amazing for you guys, seriously overdone but shows the potential of the WCB up and over into the cold air. TSSN galore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Excellent disco from LUB this afternoon: AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX358 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013.SHORT TERM...DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY ENTERING SOUTHERN NEWMEXICO CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY AND PUSH TOWARD WEST TEXAS...SETTING THESTAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXASPANHANDLE AND CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND ROLLINGPLAINS.THIS EVENING...DUAL THREATS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS HEIGHTS ALOFTBEGIN TO FALL AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW AS SURFACECYCLOGENESIS ENSUES OVER THE SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS. THE SHORTERFUSED OF WHICH WILL BE ACROSS THE ROLLING PLAINS AND EXTREMESOUTHEASTERN PANHANDLE IN THE FORM OF THUNDERSTORMS. STEEPENINGLAPSE RATES...STRONGLY SHEARED PROFILES...AND IMPRESSIVE OMEGAVALUES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A PACIFICFRONT/DRYLINE. KEPT CHANCES PULLED WEST ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THEROLLING PLAINS WITH INITIALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THEDEEPENING SURFACE LOW. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED LARGEHAIL...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY ONLY A FEW HUNDRED J/KGOF CAPE. FARTHER NORTHWEST...SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ANDOVERSPREAD THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING FROMNORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...WITH AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF A MEMPHIS TOJUSTICEBURG LINE SEEING ALL SNOW BY MIDNIGHT. LOCATIONS SOUTH ANDEAST WILL TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS APOLAR FRONT IS DRAGGED ACROSS THE AREA BY AN EAST/NORTHEASTWARDMOVING SURFACE LOW.MONDAY...THE HEAVIEST SNOW AMOUNTS LOOK TO TAKE PLACE MONDAY MORNINGIN THE 12-18Z WINDOW. THIS WILL BE THE TIME WHEN THE H50 LOWTRAVERSES THE AREA. THIS LOW LOOKS TO CUT THROUGH THE SOUTH ANDROLLING PLAINS...BRINGING HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES ON ITS NORTHWEST SIDEIN VICINITY OF THE DEFORMATION ZONE. ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SHOWSABUNDANT LIFT HERE WHERE A TROWAL AXIS WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOWENCOMPASSING THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN/CENTRALSOUTH/ROLLING PLAINS. IN ADDITION...EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE 12 HOUR H50HEIGHT FALLS OF NEAR 200 METERS WILL TAKE PLACE BY AROUND12Z...FURTHER OWING TO THE SYSTEM/S INTENSITY.WITH THE CONTINUED TRENDING FOR THE LOW TO MOVE FARTHER AND FARTHERSOUTH...HAVE INCLUDED THE TOP THREE ROWS OF COUNTIES IN THE BLIZZARDWARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM SUNDAY EVENING TO 6 PM MONDAY EVENING.BLOWING SNOW WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO WESTERNPORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINSAS WINDS RAMP UP WITH PASSAGE OF THE POLAR FRONT. THIS WILL CONTINUETHROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AFFECTED BY THE BLIZZARDWARNING...AS WINDS OF UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH COMBINE WITH GUSTS UPWARDSOF 60 MPH AT TIMES. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 6INCHES AND ABOVE ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...TO 3 TO 6INCHES ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL SOUTH AND ROLLING PLAINS.THE MORE SOUTHERN TRACK ALSO SEEMS TO WARRANT AN ADVISORY FOR YOAKUMTO STONEWALL COUNTIES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW AND ASSOCIATEDWRAP AROUND SNOWFALL. TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNT HERE WILL BE IN THE 1 TO3 INCH BALLPARK. WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH ADVISORY LEVEL CRITERIAHERE AS WELL...BUT WILL JUST MENTION THIS IN THE WINTER WEATHERADVISORY PRODUCT TO AVOID MULTIPLE HEADLINES AND CONFUSION.OVERALL...EXPECT A RAW DAY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S...OVERCASTSKIES...AND BLOWING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Initial 21 TrendCast Run for OK/KS regions. (http://smartwxmodel.net/update.htm) Wichita area: Looking at snow to begin around 5AM, then picking up to a steady light to moderate pace after 9AM, with .5 to .7"/hr snowrates. Winds will also be gusting up to 30Kts during this time frame. After around 4PM to 12AM seeing the heaviest snow beginning, with rates pushing up to 1.4 to 1.6"/hr during this time frame and winds gusts up to 35Kts possible. There will be drifting and blowing snow across the area, almost blizzard like conditions. My model is showing around 11-13" possible in the Wichita, Newton, and El Dorado regions. Gage Area: Snow to begin around midnight, then rapidly increasing by 4AM, with snowfall rates around 1"/hr. Then from 8AM to 6PM, periods of heavy snow with snowfall rates up to 1.9"/hr possible during this time frame, with wind gusts approaching 39kts in this region. Expect blizzard conditions in this area. Snowfall output right now is showing 14-16" in and around the Gage area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It is the weather channel though so any shock there lol? The name of the storm "winter storm rocky" REALLY!! lmao When they were at the letter "B"; I wonder if they used the name "Bullwinkle" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Waterboy Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It's currently 68 degrees in Lubbock and they are under a Blizzard Warning. That's nuts!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What is KC's biggest snowstorm? 24.2" - March 22-24, 1912 Full list: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=kcwinterstats#top10'>http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=kcwinterstats#top10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0211 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN NM...TX AND OK PANHANDLES...EXTREME SWRN KS CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW VALID 250120Z - 250715Z SUMMARY...HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM NORTHEAST NM INTO THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES. SNOW RATES COULD EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR WITHIN HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS. DISCUSSION...INTENSE HEIGHT FALLS ARE SPREADING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF POWERFUL SRN ROCKIES UPPER LOW. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS WITH RAPID MID LEVEL CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS NEAR THE LEE TROUGH WITHING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. FARTHER NORTH...CONVECTION IS DEEPENING/EXPANDING NORTH OF POLAR SURGE WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED INTO THE LOWER 30S JUST NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM AMA EXHIBITS VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTION ROOTED ABOVE 700MB. LATEST LIGHTNING DATA SUPPORTS THIS EVOLUTION WITH TSTMS NOW INCREASING ACROSS THE SERN TX PANHANDLE AND MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY DEEPER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT INTO NERN NM. GIVEN THE LARGE SCALE FORCING AND STRENGTHENING UPSLOPE FLOW INTO NERN NM...VERY HEAVY SNOW...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHTNING...WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE CANADIAN ESCARPMENT INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. ICE PELLETS MAY INITIALLY MIX ACROSS THE ERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AROUND 06Z. ..DARROW.. 02/25/2013 ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...ABQ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Spotter reported 2" in 45 min. at Fritch (25 N AMA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 24.2" - March 22-24, 1912 Full list: http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=kcwinterstats#top10 Thanks, That's going to be tough to beat. 15" is definitely doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 God this thing is going to be ripping TSSN for awhile, radar in the TX/OK panhandles is beautiful and it's just getting going. Look at those cells being taken in near Childress. I think Baro called it "atmospheric magic" with the GHD blizzard (in TSSN12's sig). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Some people get all the fun... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That storm has barfed out a gust front that's sent two Mesonet stations (Mangum and Hobart so far) gusting to 65 mph. Also prolific lightning showing up with that developing cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 That storm has barfed out a gust front that's sent two Mesonet stations (Mangum and Hobart so far) gusting to 65 mph. Also prolific lightning showing up with that developing cluster. This is just the beginning of the atmospheric pain. Once the GOM is truly tapped into this will get sick fast. Enjoy your storm. I am hoping someone on here gets some video from NW OK. hint hint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 God this thing is going to be ripping TSSN for awhile, radar in the TX/OK panhandles is beautiful and it's just getting going. Look at those cells being taken in near Childress. I think Baro called it "atmospheric magic" with the GHD blizzard (in TSSN12's sig). Ah that storm brings back good memories. csnavywx had a good quote in tssn's siggie too. Good to see him posting weatherside again in the OV threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This is just the beginning of the atmospheric pain. Once the GOM is truly tapped into this will get sick fast. Enjoy your storm. I am hoping someone on here gets some video from NW OK. hint hint David Reimer will be in Woodward, as well Reed Timmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Now that we are actually within the usable timeframe of the NAM/NAM hi-res (and it seemed to initialize better than previous runs), this simulated reflectivity depicts the epic thrashing and evisceration of NW OK once the deform band gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wx 24/7 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Excuse me while I have a weenie moment, but that is beautiful! I can't wait to see the photos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 David Reimer will be in Woodward, as well Reed Timmer. That is a good spot to be. He should have no problem getting TSSN there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm planning on heading NW tomorrow morning. Seeing how things evolve tonight. I can't wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Brilliant.....KWWR 250255Z AUTO 33009G18KT 4SM VCTSUP SCT008 BKN037 OVC050 00/00 A2986 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SE THRU SW P0001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Awesome WV imagery right now...I suggest finding a good loop. Incredible watching the PV anomaly rapidly tighten than nearly propagate straight S as it begins to stretch/eject the Rockies over east-central NM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I'm planning on heading NW tomorrow morning. Seeing how things evolve tonight. I can't wait! It is pretty reasonable to believe someone will easily crack 2' possibly 2.5' over NW OK. The drifts are going to be gigantic. Be safe should you head up as roads may be fully impassable for a while. The combination of OKDOT having little to no road weather services and the flat expanses means this truly is life threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 That band on hi-res simulations is comparable to the one we saw in CT with the Blizzard of 2013. Some areas could get absolutely destroyed with monster rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It is pretty reasonable to believe someone will easily crack 2' possibly 2.5' over NW OK. The drifts are going to gigantic. Be safe should you head up as roads may be fully impassable for a while. The combination of OKDOT having little to no road weather services and the flat expanses means this truly is life threatening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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