March 2013 Forecast Contest, Temperatures

[Roger Smith]

Table of scoring results for March

 

(Notes: Scores after time penalty are in a second row for entrants with a penalty, only those survive to the annual scoring table. High scores for each station and for classic, expanded divisions, and total score, in bold print. These are based on adjusted scores in cases where there was a higher score before time penalty. See Feb contest post #1 for details on scoring method when anomalies greater than 5.0).

 

Forecaster ____________ DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ___@___ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _______

_______________________________________________________________________________

 

--- Actual --- ...............--3.0 ... --2.4 ... --0.6 ... ..... ... --5.3 ... --5.2 ... --1.5

 

 

WXDUDE64 ..................... 86 ... 92 .... 80 ... 258 ... ... ... 69 ... 50 ... 80 .... 199 ....... 457

ROGER SMITH ................. 66 ... 82 ... 98 ... 246 ... ... ... 47 ... 52 ... 98 .... 197 ........ 443

RODNEYS......................... 64 ... 76 ... 94 ... 234 ... ... ... 69 ... 52 ... 86 .... 207 ........ 441

CTBLIZZ .......................... 90 ... 88 ... 42 ... 220 ... ... ... 77 ... 58 ... 80 .... 215 ....... 435

BLAZES.S566 ................... 66 ... 64 ... 94 ... 224 ... ... ... 59 ... 50 ... 90 .... 199 ........ 423

 

DONSUTHERLAND.1......... 64 ... 62... 92 ... 218 ... ... ... 57 ... 48 ... 86 .... 191 ........ 409

MIDLO_SNOW_MAKER .... 78 ... 92 ... 80 ... 250 ... ... ... 41 ... 28 ... 88 .... 157 ....... 407

SKIERINVERMONT ........... 70 ... 72 .... 82 ... 224 ... ... ... 27 ... 58 .. 100 .... 185 . 409

... ... 1% pen ..................... 69 ... 71 .... 81 .... 221 ... ... ... 26 ... 57 ... 99 .... 182 ........ 403

ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY ...... 80 ... 78 ... 82 ... 240 ... ... ... 25 ... 50 .... 86 .... 161 ........ 401

HTOTOWN_WX ................ 64 ... 80 ... 98 ... 242... ... ... 00 ... 70 ... 86 ..... 156 ........ 398

 

NZUCKER ......................... 82 ... 84 ... 96 ... 262 ... ... ... 11 ... 46 ... 80 .... 137 .. 399

... ... 9% pen .................. 75 ... 77 .... 87 .... 239 ... ... ... 10 ... 42 ... 73 .... 125 ....... 364

LITCHFIELD.LIBATIONS ... 60 ... 76 ... 98 ... 234 ... ... ... 59 ... 01 ... 48 .... 108 ........ 342

CPICK.79 .......................... 70 ... 32 ... 86 ... 188 ... ... ... 21 ... 46 ... 66 .... 133 ....... 321

SRAIN ............................. 44 ... 62 ... 82 ... 188 ... ... ... 21 ... 20 ... 92 .... 133 ........ 321

 

INUDAW .......................... 66 ... 70 ....98 ... 234 ... ... ... 33 ... 08 ... 40 .... 081 ........ 315

MN_TRANSPLANT ............ 70 ... 88 ... 74 ... 232 ... ... ... 25 ... 18 ... 38 .... 081 ........ 313

 

Consensus ..................... 52 ..... 62 ... 92 ... 206 ... ... ... 11 ... 18 ... 74 .... 103 ........ 309

 

UNCLE W ........................ 50 ... 62 ... 92 .... 204 ... ... ... 07 ... 18 ... 50 .... 075 ........ 279

ELLINWOOD .................... 40 ... 40 ... 62 ... 142 ... ... ... 29 ... 26 ... 80 .... 135 ........ 277

SKISHEEP ....................... 38 ... 72 ... 80 ...190 ... ... ... 11 ... 22 ... 48 .... 081 ........ 271

ISOTHERM ...................... 44 ... 70 ... 86 ... 200 ... ... ... 00 ... 18 ... 46 ..... 064 ..... 264

STORMITECTURE ........... 30 ... 56 ... 96 ... 182 ... ... ... 02 ... 00 ... 76 ... 078 .. 260

... ... 2% pen .................. 29 ... 55 .... 94 .... 178 ... ... ... 02 ... 00 ... 74 .... 076 ..... 254 

 

Normal ......................... 40 .... 52 .... 88 ... 180 ... ... ... 00 .... 00 .... 70 .... 070 ..... 250

 

TOM .............................. 36 ... 50 ... 92 ... 178 ... ... ... 03 ... 00 ... 60 .... 063 ..... 241

WEATHERDUDE ............. 34 ... 34 ... 58 ... 126 ... ... ... 03 ... 32 ... 80 .... 115 ..... 241

MALLOW ........................ 44 ... 42 ... 62 ... 148 ... ... ... 00 ... 04 ... 84 .... 088 ..... 236

 

STEBO ........................... 14 ... 36 ... 84 ... 134 ... ... ... 00 ... 00 ... 80.... 080 ..... 214

GOOBAGOOBA ............... 30 ... 38 ... 64 ... 132 ... ... ... 00 ... 08 ... 74 .... 082 ..... 214

POTTERCOUNTYWX ....... 56 ... 42 ... 88 ... 186 ... ... ... 00 ... 00 ... 26 .... 026 .. 212

... ... 1% pen .................. 55 ... 42 ... 87 ... 184 ... ... ... 00 ... 00 ... 26 ..... 026 ..... 210

CHICAGO_WX ................ 30 ... 36 ... 68 ... 134 ... ... ... 07 ... 00 ... 50 .... 057 ..... 191

SD .................................. 16 ... 36 ... 68 ... 120 ... ... ... 07 ... 00 ... 60 .... 067 ..... 187

SACRUS .......................... 70 ... 70 ... 84 ... 224 ... ... ... 00 ... 18 ... 86 ... 104 .. 328

... ... 48% pen ................. 36 ... 36 ... 44 ... 116 ... ... ... 00 ... 09 ... 46 ..... 055 ..... 171

 

DEREK_Z ........................ 24 ... 30 ... 56 ... 110 ... ... ... 00 ... 02 ... 44 .... 046 ..... 156

BKVIKING ........................ 02 ... 28.... 76 ...106 ... ... ... 00....00 ... 44 ... 044 ...... 150

CHICAGO STORM ............ 20 ... 38 ... 68 ... 126 ... ... ... 00 ... 00 ... 10 ... 010 ..... 136

WESTWIND ..................... 00 ... 16 ... 56 ... 072 ... ... ... 00 ... 00 ... 54 .... 054 ..... 126

_______________________________________________________

 

These will be merged into the annual scoring table later today.

 

 

(table edited to show new penalty structure, July 17th)

[Roger Smith]

Final values for March in this post:

 

DCA ... --3.0

 

NYC ... --2.4

 

BOS ... --0.6

 

ORD ... --5.3

 

ATL ... --5.2

 

IAH ... --1.5

 

The post above this has the final scores for March (after 11:00h EDT as I edit).

 

The annual or cumulative scores will be posted later today. I have everything backed up on a excel program now which is helping me to generate scores faster and probably more accurately (we'll see).

 

Congrats to wxdude64 for leading the way in March, guess who in second and (from unposted work on annual) tournament leader RodneyS in third, with CTBlizz and blazess556 next on the list.

[Roger Smith]

__________________________________________________________________

 

 

Annual Scoring Table -- January to March

__________________________________________________________________

 

 

...

 

This is the sum of all forecast scores for all categories.

 

 

The number of * beside forecaster name gives a count of months missed.

 

Under "best scores" the first column refers to this cumulative table and the second column keeps track of monthly best scores, in that CL means the classic division and EX means the three new stations. When a forecaster has more than one monthly win for a station, the + sign is added each time (one example so far, H20townWx has two wins for Boston). Ties are awarded to all who match top score. So, to read the "best score awards" the first entry refers to this table only, the second column refers to the three (so far) monthly tables. Anyone who has monthly wins but no high scores in this table is marked as -- for the first column, then their monthly wins appear. I hope that makes it easier to read.

 

 

 

________________________________ "Classic" _______________ "Expanded" _____________

 

Forecaster ............ ........... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... (.C.) ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH ... (.E.) .... Total Score
________________________________________________________________________________

....Annual (cum) values ......... +0.2 .. --0.4 .. +0.5 ........ ... --1.3 .. +0.3 .. +1.0 ................ Best score awards

 

____________________________________________________________________________(cum)____(month)

 

01 RODNEY S ......................210 ..206 .. 248 ..... 664 .... .... 185 .. 124 ... 226 ..... 535 ..... 1199 __ CL,EX,DCA,BOS,ORD

___ CL, ORD

02 MIDLO SNOW MAKER ..... 200 .. 196 .. 222 ..... 618 .... ... 153 .. 132 .. 234 ..... 519 ..... 1137 __ ATL,IAH ___ BOS,NYC

03 WXDUDE64 .................... 190 ..212 ..208 ..... 610 .... ..... 167 ... 96 ... 212 ..... 475 ...... 1085 ___ -- ___ CL,NYC,3

04 DONSUTHERLAND1 ....... 148 .. 170 .. 220 ..... 538 .... ... 163 .. 106 .. 226 ..... 495 ...... 1033 ___-- ___ BOS,IAH

05 BLAZESS556 ................. 146 .. 172 .. 212 ..... 530 .... ... 133 .. 100 .. 234 ..... 467 ...... 997 ___ IAH

 

06 MN TRANSPLANT .......... 174 .. 224 .. 226 ..... 524 .... ..... 95 ... 91 .. 186 ..... 372 ...... 996 ___ NYC

07 H2OTOWN_WX ............. 166 .. 192 .. 240 ..... 598 .... .... 74 .. 101 .. 216 ..... 391 ...... 989 ___ -- ____ CL, BOS+ ATL

08 STEBO .......................... 122 ..172 .. 226 ..... 520 .... .... 150 ... 88 .. 196 ..... 434 ...... 954

09 SKIERINVERMONT ......... 169 .. 195 .. 218 .... 582 .... .... 127 .. 104 .. 139 ..... 370 ...... 952 ___ -- ____ IAH

10 MALLOW ....................... 162 .. 170 .. 196 ..... 528 .... ..... 90 ... 81 .. 232 ..... 403 ...... 931 ___ -- ____ IAH, 1

11 SD ................................ 118 .. 178 .. 208 ..... 504 .... .... 131 ... 94 .. 198 ..... 423 ..... 927 __ -- _____ ORD

 

(12) Normal ......................... 140 .. 174 .. 226 ..... 540 .... .... 112 ... 88 .. 182 ..... 382 ...... 922 ___ -- ____ ATL

 

12 INUDAW ......................... 154 .. 182 .. 224 ..... 560 .... .... 135 ... 21 .. 192 ..... 348 ...... 908 ___ -- ____ BOS

13 NZUCKER ....................... 147 .. 157 .. 151 ..... 455 .... ... 138 .. 111 .. 193 ..... 442 ...... 897 

 

(14) Consensus ................... 138 .. 166 .. 220 .... 524 .... ..... 83 ... 67 .... 222 ..... 372 ...... 896

 

14 SRAIN ............................. 134 .. 188 .. 222 ..... 544 .... ..... 65 ... 86 .. 188 ..... 339 ...... 883

15 LITCHFIELDLIBATIONS .... 154 .. 170 .. 196 ...... 520 .... .... 129 ... 50 .. 168 ...... 347 ...... 867 ___ -- ____ BOS

 

16 BKVIKING ........................ 90 ... 150 .. 226 ..... 466 .... .... 116 ... 68 ... 216 ..... 400 ...... 866

17 SACRUS ......................... 166 .. 164 .. 184 ..... 514 .... ..... 58 ... 91 .. 190 ...... 339 ...... 853

18 UNCLE W ........................ 114 .. 162 .. 196 ..... 472 .... .... 81 ... 70 .. 208 ..... 359 ...... 831

19 TOM ............................... 98 .. 130 .. 198 ..... 426 .... .... 111 ... 46 .. 204 ..... 361 ...... 787

20 CHICAGO_WX ................ 106 .. 134 .. 190 ..... 430 .... ..... 83 ... 51 .. 218 ..... 352 ...... 782

 

21 ELLINWOOD ................... 108 .. 134 .. 174 ..... 416 .... .... 63 .. 63 .. 194 ...... 320 ...... 736

22 WEATHERDUDE................ 101 .. 134 .. 183 .... 418 .... .... 74 ... 98 .. 132 ..... 304 ...... 722

23 CTBLIZZ ........................... 94 .. 106 ... 88 ..... 288 .... ... 130 .. 73 .. 214 ..... 417 ....... 705 __ -- ___ IAH,EX,DCA,ORD

24 ISOTHERM ...................... 102 ... 130 .. 148 ..... 380 ..... ..... 16 ... 69 .. 226 ..... 311 ...... 691

25 CPICK79* ......................... 126 ... 78 .. 158 .... 362 .... .... 99 .. 104 .. 86 ..... 289 ....... 651

 

26 POTTERCOUNTYWXOBS.. 130 .. 130 . 194 ..... 454 .... .... 14 ... 36 .. 144 ...... 194 ..... 648

T27 DEREK Z ........................ 104 ... 82 .. 126 ..... 312 .... .... 40 ... 87 .. 208 ..... 335 ...... 647 ____ -- ____ EX,ATL

T27 GOOBAGOOBA ................ 84 .. 114 .. 142 ..... 340 .... .... 88 ... 41 .. 178 ..... 307 ...... 647

29 SKISHEEP*....................... 66 ... 98 .. 150 .... 314 .... ..... 79 ... 86 .. 138 ...... 303 ..... 617

30 BRAD1551* ...................... 74 .. 118 ..100 ..... 292 .... ..... 64 ... 68 ...162 ..... 294 ...... 586 ___ -- ____ NYC

 

31 FRIVOLOUSZ21* ........... 107 .. 129 .. 134 ..... 370 .... .... 59 ... 32 .. 123 ...... 214 ...... 584 ___--____ NYC

32 ROGER SMITH ................. 76 ... 82 .. 144 ..... 302 .... .... 47 ... 52 .. 150 ..... 249 ...... 551 ___ -- ____ BOS,IAH

33 I.NEED.SNOW** .............. 92 ... 90 ... 80 ..... 262 .... .... 84 ... 82 ... 84 .... 250 ...... 512 ___ --__ CL,EX,DCA,ATL,2

34 CHICAGO STORM ............ 54 .. 106 .. 166 ..... 326 .... .... 28 ... 08 .. 136 ..... 172 ...... 498

35 HUDSONVALLEY21* ....... 78 ... 90 ... 82 ..... 250 .... .... 34 ... 54 .. 122 ..... 210 ....... 460

 

36 QVECTORMAN* .............. 150 ... 60 ... 82 .... 292 .... .... 52 ... 68 ... 12 ..... 132 ...... 424 __--____ DCA

37 ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY** .... 80 ... 78 ... 82 ..... 240 .... .... 25 ... 50 ... 86 ..... 161 ...... 401

38 WESTWIND* .................... 44 ... 80 .. 116 ..... 240 .... .... 30 ... 11 .. 112 ...... 153 ...... 393

39 LONGISLANDWX** ........... 56 ... 52 ... 82 ..... 190 .... .... 72 ... 28 ... 90 ..... 190 ....... 380

40 HOCKEYINC** ................... 64 ... 38 ... 68 ..... 170. .... .... 88 ... 44 ... 28 ..... 160 ...... 330

 

41 NYCSUBURBS** ............... 58 ... 84 ... 72 ..... 214 .... .... 14 ... 32 ... 62 ..... 108 ...... 322

42 STORMITECTURE** ......... 29 ... 55 ... 94 ..... 178 .... .... 02 ... 00 ... 74 ..... 076 ..... 254

43 SHADES** ........................ 32 ... 60 ... 46 ..... 138 .... .... 00 ... 18 ... 82 ..... 100 ...... 238

44 TSTEEL** ......................... 20 ... 40 ... 40 ..... 100 .... .... 54 ... 13 ... 42 ..... 109 ...... 209

45 WHITEOUTMD** .............. 24 ... 30 ... 40 ..... 094 .... .... 26 ... 02 ... 72 ..... 100 ...... 194

46 CANDYMANCOLUMBUSGA** 30 .. 28 .. 32 .... 090 .... .... 40 ... 00 ... 60 ..... 100 ...... 190

47 OKIE333** ......................... 00 ... 00 ... 10 ..... 010 .... .... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ....... 010

 

_____________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

* asterisks show how many months a forecaster has missed ... no asterisk, has been in every month

 

"Best score" awards are listed first by cumulative best scores from this table, and then by all best scores for stations and groups every month entered.

 

Monthly winners so far are Mallow (Jan)  I.need.snow (Feb) and wxdude64 (Mar). This is coded into the table by number of the month (in the monthly column).

 

The annual temp is the running average without weighting for different length of the months.

 

 

(table edited July 17th, new penalty structure)

[Chicago WX]

I put the annual scoring into a chart, per the scoring above. I did update litchfieldlibation's numbers as well...you still had his numbers through Feb only, above. 

 

Again, hope you don't mind Roger.

 

[Roger Smith]

Thanks, looks great as usual. I see that I started to change LL from my spreadsheet and got halfway into it, then no doubt my screen jumped like crazy as it seems to do at random occasions when editing large posts on here. Or it just didn't all get into the auto-save when I lost the edit screen which happened once (but at least auto-save kicks in as long as you aren't on the fast reply screen).

 

So, do you just type in my numbers or do you merge the March scores into your spreadsheet? I've found this a bit complicated with the penalty scores, otherwise it all updates in seconds now. I just have to weed out the negative scores and fix the few that are in decimals after a time penalty is applied.

 

I'll have a look at NZucker in your table and see if you got the same scores as I did, he had some very close to round-off territory. Trivial matters, I guess, but just wondering how to make it easier for you to do that work, I am now quite proficient at Excel for my own work but not so advanced when it comes to sharing the results with another user.

[Inudaw]

Not sure I like being right between normal and consensus..   My good I'm failing so bad in the expanded cities.    5th overall in classic.. :-/

Specifically Atlanta is just killing me. 

[Roger Smith]

Wait until we introduce the "Western" division, SEA, DEN and PHX, next year.

 

(just a thought, prob'ly won't happen)

 

This expansion may actually help everyone as clearly there is a skill gap between the familiar (to most) and less familiar (to most). Or maybe it's just a fluke of the patterns and by end of year these differences in scoring will fade out. Atlanta is evidently giving the most problems so far to the field in general.

[Chicago WX]

Thanks, looks great as usual. I see that I started to change LL from my spreadsheet and got halfway into it, then no doubt my screen jumped like crazy as it seems to do at random occasions when editing large posts on here. Or it just didn't all get into the auto-save when I lost the edit screen which happened once (but at least auto-save kicks in as long as you aren't on the fast reply screen).

 

So, do you just type in my numbers or do you merge the March scores into your spreadsheet? I've found this a bit complicated with the penalty scores, otherwise it all updates in seconds now. I just have to weed out the negative scores and fix the few that are in decimals after a time penalty is applied.

 

I'll have a look at NZucker in your table and see if you got the same scores as I did, he had some very close to round-off territory. Trivial matters, I guess, but just wondering how to make it easier for you to do that work, I am now quite proficient at Excel for my own work but not so advanced when it comes to sharing the results with another user.

 

I'm just plugging in the final monthly totals to the running annual totals, after you post them. You do the all the heavy lifting.  

[wxdude64]

Wait until we introduce the "Western" division, SEA, DEN and PHX, next year.

 

(just a thought, prob'ly won't happen)

 

This expansion may actually help everyone as clearly there is a skill gap between the familiar (to most) and less familiar (to most). Or maybe it's just a fluke of the patterns and by end of year these differences in scoring will fade out. Atlanta is evidently giving the most problems so far to the field in general.

I think that is a great idea, but I wouldn't go much above 9 picks as may turn people off having to play more than that, go for it I say!

Yeah, ATL has kicked my rear so far. Thanks to you and Chicago for keeping up with this.

[Roger Smith]

I agree, nine would be the limit, just like planets (here we go) ... the scoring would take maybe two days instead of one.

 

We'll see in December how people are enjoying the contest as it stands, that's the first issue to be resolved, then maybe a western "completion" of the contest. It was suggested in advance of January that people could choose to enter just the "classic" portion and nobody went for that option, so that tended to suggest general acceptance of an expansion. Anyway, it's mainly for fun and greater awareness of matters meteorological (it has had that effect for me as I track the anomalies almost daily).

[skierinvermont]

Pretty poor that the consensus is doing worse than the normal values. And there aren't many that have done better than normal values individually either. Those that have are by small margins. I'd say only the top 4, Rodney, midlo, wxdude and Don S have shown any significant forecasting skill.

[Roger Smith]

Would add Sacrus to that list as he fell mainly due to late penalties in March, now I would prefer to keep the penalties fairly strict to discourage late calling, the amount is probably about 3-4 times what actual skill gains are involved (seeing the 20th instead of the 17th on the GFS is not always that big of an advantage).

 

Anyway, I just turned on the skill machine, although it's sounding a bit rough this morning. (just looking at April anomalies to date )