N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 We didn't have a block in this storm that just occured. There was a way east based block, but nothing like a classic NAO block. The worry is definitely suppression for Mar 6-7. if only we did. nice pattern for snow making lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Congrats ATL on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Using a straight up teleconnector analysis, not very supportive of warmer than normal for the time being. The GFS ensemble mean is really advertising a strong negative PNA evolving from about D10 onwards through the 20th of the month. The Euro ensemble mean on the other hand, only shows a modest decline to neutral, followed by some positive - basically staying elevated. The PNA becomes less correlative to the circulation at large as the wave lengths seasonally begin to shorten, nearing and exceeding the Equinox, but now is way too soon for that. A negative or positive PNA has value during March. So mixed signals coming from the PNA. One thing we should be leery of, the warmest of all possibilities has verified over the last 15 years. If there is a colder solution on the table, that solution has failed the majority of times - not just per flavor/character of synoptic patterning, but verification in temperature -wise; going warm is the gamblers wisest choice. That said, the bigger temperature control for us March are the EPO and NAO: Both the GFS and Euro clusters are flagging the EPO to fall slightly negative in their means over the next 2 weeks. Meanwhile, the NAO is solidly negative in the Euro, where it neutralizes out in time in the GFS; of the blend of the two would argue for a negative NAO tendency to continue through mid month. The gist is that the PNA is split (No Skill) when blending, where as the EPO/NAO combined and blended would argue for colder than normal to some degree ... any tendency for finding the warmest solution imaginable relative to all (as discussed above) being the last 15 years of climate mode, notwithstanding. In fact, if we wanted even factor that in, it might mute some of the cold, making the next 2 to 3 weeks seasonally below normal as opposed to anything dramatic. It is noted that a few operational GFS runs out in time have been drilling a bigger cold domes south out of Canada - but of course that is wishy-washy given extended time frames. Particularly considering the Euro doesn't do that; in fact, the D7-10 is loading spring air mass into the MV and even SW OV regions. Either way you can sense the seasonal change beginning to stress the operational models. We must also keep in mind that particularly after March 1, 0C at 850mb is a 56F afternoon in full sun when/if stable adiabatic extrapolation to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 i would be excited if I lived NYC south, 2010 analogy's popping up a lot, would suck if too much marine air gets involved but as dynamic has this could be that would be a blue bomb especially with elevation. i would say the blue ridge mtn spine would be a good place to be camp'd out potentially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It just seems like often this year the - NAO ends up verifying further east than at first thought. Going way back to when I was in Europe in Dec. and it was cold there, but of no use over here. We didn't have a block in this storm that just occured. There was a way east based block, but nothing like a classic NAO block. The worry is definitely suppression for Mar 6-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Congrats ATL on the GFS. What a train wreck is the NW Atlantic Basin leading up to that trough digging in - the correct handling of that pile up under the -NAO tendency is key to what that thing's likely to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GGEM and GFS couldnt be any more different for the 3/6-7 threat...the GGEM is a miller b type evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It's amazing how much warmer things have trended in the first 10 days of March...and it isn't that warm. Models totally lost the cold and blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It's amazing how much warmer things have trended in the first 10 days of March...and it isn't that warm. Models totally lost the cold and blocking.One thing you do have to wonder about is if the blocking isn't there , then obviously neither is the suppression next week which could equal snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 One thing you do have to wonder about is if the blocking isn't there , then obviously neither is the suppression next week which could equal snow Or it could equal a cold rain, if we've lost the cold, we could have trouble getting a snow event, it has to be a decent amount below normal in march for a snow event. Don't think snow is out of the question, but the caution flags are out in full force. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 One thing you do have to wonder about is if the blocking isn't there , then obviously neither is the suppression next week which could equal snow Oh it's there. I'm not sure that will weaken much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This is confusing though. LOL Will just said that blocking was so strong that supression was the threat March 6-7. It's amazing how much warmer things have trended in the first 10 days of March...and it isn't that warm. Models totally lost the cold and blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 GGEM and GFS couldnt be any more different for the 3/6-7 threat...the GGEM is a miller b type evolution. Lol wow, just a tad different at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This is confusing though. LOL Will just said that blocking was so strong that supression was the threat March 6-7. The massive poleward +PNA that links up with the -epo is weaker on models now which is why it isn't as frigid on the models...the NAO blocking is still there for next storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoob40 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 It's amazing how much warmer things have trended in the first 10 days of March...and it isn't that warm. Models totally lost the cold and blocking. No surprise there based on the vast majority of the last 18 months or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Lol wow, just a tad different at 144What in the Sam hell happened to HM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 No surprise there based on the vast majority of the last 18 months or so. so what that spells is that ....unless the PNA rebuilds in the next cpl days......the CP of SNE wouldn't have much available cold in the upcoming pattern anyway...more bootleg cold pattern en route. interior pattern it would appear just minus storms ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 This is confusing though. LOL Will just said that blocking was so strong that supression was the threat March 6-7. Models had a huge west based block and a wicked -EPO that drove the cold south. The flow is more progressive now. We still have blocking up north and near AK..but the wicked +PNA is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Navgemhttps://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022812∏=prpτ=168&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well people forget that models trended blockier and colder as we headed into the last half of Feb which went against the previous progressive pattern. There clearly are a ton of mixed signals driving the pattern....it's not a case where tropics are driving the pattern...IMHO extra-tropical features like bombing Atlantic lows were really helping to drive the blocking we saw last week. We may be seeing a bit of a reversal in this...but aside from a possible cutter near the tenth...this isn't anything close to a Morch pattern as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 NOGAPS brings a pretty massive event to the MA - slow moving spring blue... It even tries to get us involved as the system is entirely cut off out in time, and drifting a bit NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 nice lookin' Euro run so far ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Euro backs in that low and gives CAR a nice event. Thing is, the more that backs in the more it screws us for the storm next week i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Euro backs in that low and gives CAR a nice event. Thing is, the more that backs in the more it screws us for the storm next week i think. I was just noticing that .. we're kinda focused on the bigger ticket items but that looks like it's even snowing down here at 72 hours... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 which storm backs into the Carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 which storm backs into the Carolinas? LOL Caribou ya tool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 LOL Caribou ya tool LOL-got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 I was just noticing that .. we're kinda focused on the bigger ticket items but that looks like it's even snowing down here at 72 hours... prob not ....prob overdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 The next interval after this could be tasty... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 LOL record snow for coastal NC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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