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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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What locations is that for? Not so sure about March being well above normal, especially with our current pattern for the next couple weeks.

The map was for the entire country, but he had all of New England above to much above temperature wise for the next 3 months. The Pacific NW was predicted to have the coolest temps during that time period.

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I think that was the old March outlook. I think I could see slightly above if things worked out right...but I would be shocked at much above. And even slightly above is probably something I wouldn't go for at the moment.

 

Like anything, it's just an outlook. There is some good stuff as to why the Morch calls busted. Basically, the convection in the Indian Ocean was killed by a westward moving Rossy wave that acted as destructive interference. It's a reason why going by the MJO doesn't always work out...it's the little nuances of atmospheric waves that we can't predict yet.

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there is not even that much talk down in the mid atlantic forums regarding early march snow with the suppressed track, at least if we can watch them rip a big storm its better than it just snowing out over the fish

 

Considering DCA is not yet to 2" this winter and BWI just a hair better, go figure. This is two straight years of just terrible snowfalls down this way, and for much of the area, three years. So, no, not a ton of chatter yet on a phantom.

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I think that was the old March outlook. I think I could see slightly above if things worked out right...but I would be shocked at much above. And even slightly above is probably something I wouldn't go for at the moment.

 

Like anything, it's just an outlook. There is some good stuff as to why the Morch calls busted. Basically, the convection in the Indian Ocean was killed by a westward moving Rossy wave that acted as destructive interference. It's a reason why going by the MJO doesn't always work out...it's the little nuances of atmospheric waves that we can't predict yet.

 

A little early for that statement no?   Looking pretty warm to me for the second half of the month.

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A little early for that statement no?   Looking pretty warm to me for the second half of the month.

 

Yeah the month could still end up above normal...but most of the Morch calls actually were in line with ending winter mid February. Certainly if March ends up well above normal, it will be because the 2nd half torched big time and not the first 2 weeks which is what many thought would happen.

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Yeah the month could still end up above normal...but most of the Morch calls actually were in line with ending winter mid February. Certainly if March ends up well above normal, it will be because the 2nd half torched big time and not the first 2 weeks which is what many thought would happen.

 

They deserve to go down in flames for listening to that rat in Punxsutawney.   

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Considering DCA is not yet to 2" this winter and BWI just a hair better, go figure. This is two straight years of just terrible snowfalls down this way, and for much of the area, three years. So, no, not a ton of chatter yet on a phantom.

however to have lived through to giant back to back snowstorms and experience a three to four foot snowpack on the level is something many people will never expience in the northeast even if they live 100 years

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A little early for that statement no?   Looking pretty warm to me for the second half of the month.

 

Well like I said...March may end up a little above normal, but Morch usually means a very warm March, not just above normal. It's gonna have to really torch the second half IMHO in order to achieve that.

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Seems like spring depression is starting to set in for many of us winter lovers. Last year was easy because we got to move right into summer in Morch. I was really thinking we could get near 100 inches. Now it seems the talk is we may have seen our last accumulating snowfall.

Fat lady humming along. plenty of snow in ski areas, rest of us hmmmmmm

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Seems like spring depression is starting to set in for many of us winter lovers. Last year was easy because we got to move right into summer in Morch. I was really thinking we could get near 100 inches. Now it seems the talk is we may have seen our last accumulating snowfall.

 

 

I highly doubt that...maybe where LL is they are done, but I would be shocked if much of the region is done. Not in this pattern. Even if we get a cutter at some point, we'll still have chances. For elevated interior, accumulating snow is a legit chance through middle April.

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The 7 inches yesterday was great, but then Morch arrived. Light mixed junk from noon right overnight and even now some wet snow showers. Today is very Morch-like.

We need a good hit from a dynamic system in March otherwise it's Morch.

Yeah the month could still end up above normal...but most of the Morch calls actually were in line with ending winter mid February. Certainly if March ends up well above normal, it will be because the 2nd half torched big time and not the first 2 weeks which is what many thought would happen.

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Climo would argue pretty heavily against a major Mid Atlantic snowstorm at this point.  Look at how this week actually played out. All this so called negative NAO and you couldn't get meaningful snow south of 43 north.

 

 

We didn't have a block in this storm that just occured. There was a way east based block, but nothing like a classic NAO block.

 

 

The worry is definitely suppression for Mar 6-7.

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We didn't have a block in this storm that just occured. There was a way east based block, but nothing like a classic NAO block.

 

 

The worry is definitely suppression for Mar 6-7.

i would be excited if I lived NYC south, 2010 analogy's popping up a lot, would suck if too much marine air gets involved but as dynamic has this could be that would be a blue bomb especially with elevation.

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