powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This will end up a 1-3 or 3-5 inch snowfall I don't think you are too far off here with the 1-3". Not sure I'd bit on 5" but I think accumulating snows up to the Pike are possible, especially above like 400-500ft if its a long duration light rate type of deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro has already given about 10 steps to the gfs. Remember 2 runs ago it was 500 miles south of where it is now. The GFS was east of Savannah a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The euro missed sne by 400+ miles with the storm snow 24 hours ago. If the gfs ends up 100 miles too far NW but southern areas still get fringed I guess you could say the euro was better because it never did that, but it won't change the fact that it may have been woefully too far south again, it just never overdid it like the gfs. What specifically do you think the gfs and now nam are doing wrong? What is so glaring that you guys are certain the ncep stuff is wrong? GFS is probably getting over phase happy with the NE energy. All models actually have it, but GFS just take it to an extreme and nearly threatens the BM with the track. NAM doesn't look terrible. Its actually pretty close to the EC ensemble solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What are you thoughts if 12z holds? If the gfs holds it probably would not sway me too much again. If the euro suddenly came north then it's a different story. Deep down I want the gfs to be right...I just don't buy the 2' of paste, no power for a week, and 70mph winds it gives the coast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the gfs holds it probably would not sway me too much again. If the euro suddenly came north then it's a different story. Deep down I want the gfs to be right...I just don't buy the 2' of paste, no power for a week, and 70mph winds it gives the coast right now. I can't believe how amped the 6z gefs members are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I can't believe how amped the 6z gefs members are. :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I can't believe how amped the 6z gefs members are. It's a little scary which is why the euro may be too far south, but adds to the suspense of which guidance will collapse. I agree with Will et al that the euro is probably too far south....im just having a little trouble believing the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a little scary which is why the euro may be too far south, but adds to the suspense of which guidance will collapse. I agree with Will et al that the euro is probably too far south....im just having a little trouble believing the gfs. It's just adding confusion..If it wasn't doing this everyone would feel 100% confidence in their forecasts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a little scary which is why the euro may be too far south, but adds to the suspense of which guidance will collapse. I agree with Will et al that the euro is probably too far south....im just having a little trouble believing the gfs. Yeah I think even if you take a euro/gfs compromise that brings this far enough south to just scrape us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Eta is also pretty amped up..........bad feeling about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's just adding confusion..If it wasn't doing this everyone would feel 100% confidence in their forecasts It is but I still feel relatively confident that we won't get a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's a little scary which is why the euro may be too far south, but adds to the suspense of which guidance will collapse. I agree with Will et al that the euro is probably too far south....im just having a little trouble believing the gfs. Now are we having trouble believing the GFS because of something it is doing synoptically? or just because it brings snow and exciting weather and that couldn't possibly happen because we want it to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is all or none. I doubt anyone gets light accumulating snows from this system. We've seen this before....ensembles means showing qpf which is automatic if a few members have a hit as the euro ensembles have or reports. So if 10 of 51 members have 2 inches of qpf and the rest have zilch, you'll have the qpf solution as is now reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i just keep thinking about that one crazy euro run several days ago..didnt the euro have a really amped run days before 12/29 only to loose it and bring it back less than two days before?? or am i not remembering that correctly? didnt the eventual outcome strongly mimic that one amped solution only a bit further se?? i wonder if the gfs is responsible for most of the bad snowstorm busts back in the 80s to early 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Now are we having trouble believing the GFS because of something it is doing synoptically? or just because it brings snow and exciting weather and that couldn't possibly happen because we want it to? It's taking this weenie vort lobe and moving it west in NY state. The 06z didn't exactly phase this, but it looked like a weakeness developed allowing heights to build out ahead of the ULL which in turn shifts things north. The ULL also begins to turn north and dumbbells some energy closer to the SNE coast which drives a slug of moisture into the region. The euro does the opposite and almost pulls the low SE. I always think the euro does this too much and it's a bias..but I think the GFS is overzealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Eta is also pretty amped up..........bad feeling about this.That isn't the Eta. It's one of the SREF control members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is all or none. I doubt anyone gets light accumulating snows from this system. We've seen this before....ensembles means showing qpf which is automatic if a few members have a hit as the euro ensembles have or reports. So if 10 of 51 members have 2 inches of qpf and the rest have zilch, you'll have the qpf solution as is now reported. Agreed to an extent. I still think the hills could have some light accums in a scrapper, but for the coastal plain, this needs to be gang-busters or its not happening. Just too marginal thermal profile to have 0.1-0.25" QPF over like 6-12 hours and expect to get a January 1-3" snowfall. Hills could pull it off though. But regarding the ensembles, yeah that's the biggest issue with those means if you can't see the individual members. A small minority of ridiculous solutions will be able to skew the mean to looking a lot better than what the individuals might show. It may look like a low end warning snowfall on the mean, when in reality its either KU or smokin' cirrus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That isn't the Eta. It's one of the SREF control members. I thought the old ETA is the wrfnmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's taking this weenie vort lobe and moving it west in NY state. The 06z didn't exactly phase this, but it looked like a weakeness developed allowing heights to build out ahead of the ULL which in turn shifts things north. The ULL also begins to turn north and dumbbells some energy closer to the SNE coast which drives a slug of moisture into the region. The euro does the opposite and almost pulls the low SE. I always think the euro does this too much and it's a bias..but I think the GFS is overzealous. I see what you're talking about... it looked like the UKMET was close to pulling a GFS at 00z with that energy but not quite, and the GGEM didn't incorporate that lobe to the north and therefore it ends up with a ECM type solutation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I thought the old ETA is the wrfnmm? No...the NMM took the ETA's place on the SREF suite. For some reason the PSU ewall site still shows it as "ETA" when you click on the link thatsays "NMM". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ALso, the GFS is 50 miles from having ern MA smoke subsidence exhaust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No...the NMM took the ETA's place on the SREF suite. For some reason the PSU ewall site still shows it as "ETA" when you click on the link thatsays "NMM". Ah thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even local OCMs aren't biting lol. We'll all be glad to eat our own words, but I expect it to begin folding at 12z. Even 06z showed signs of it. This. As Scott(Rollo) pointed out last night, If you look at the 500mb images, you can see that rogue vort over ME on the GFS and it's more robust than the other guidance. It looks as if it's that piece of energy that retrogrades and phases into the closed ULL allowing this whole thing to come N on the GFS. Sure, I hope the GFS is correct, but it's a huge outlier right now. I'd probably weight guidance right now 80/20 in favor of the the Euro/GGEM/Ukie vs the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No...the NMM took the ETA's place on the SREF suite. For some reason the PSU ewall site still shows it as "ETA" when you click on the link thatsays "NMM". I keep getting fooled by that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I keep getting fooled by that too. Glad I am not the only one, in any even the NMM came way northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I can't believe how amped the 6z gefs members are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No...the NMM took the ETA's place on the SREF suite. For some reason the PSU ewall site still shows it as "ETA" when you click on the link thatsays "NMM".Someone at Penn St needs to go through ewall and remove the dead links and fix the errors in the scripts. There's old eta and mm5 links around there. Besides the text errors in the nmm script still showing eta, a lot of the meso models have slp scripting errors too at the center of strong low centers...the contours go haywire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles say no way. What did the ens show here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 As for the SREFs, I've found the new NMB members to be most realistic this winter and they are all a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What did the ens show here?Looks like a little over 0.75" for DC to me. 1.00" contour is a bit south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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