dendrite Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles say no way.0.25" up to PSM, 0.50" GHG, and 0.75" ACK, but yeah, the mean did come south. I agree with you, the GFS will start caving once the BOS OCMs start hyping a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Medium range to almost short range and no agreement between the 2 major globals. Betting against the euro with even money just isn't smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS will fold. Trust me. Saved for the victory lap----but we'll have to see who's victory. Mildly curious about my 8:00a.m. flight out of BDL on Thursday. Gut says meh, but my imagination has strong winds/snow causing a delay. At least I'll be heading first to CLT, so I'm counting on things being uneventful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro for 10? 11? Runs vs GFS Hmmmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When the GFS folds on this later today..will we finally get any remaining huggers to admit it shouldn't be used? There's not many left I know..but for those of you who are...and you know who you are...will you finally admit it? It's unusable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles say no way. How far north is the .50 contour? if we can get that north of the Pike..that's a solid 3-5 inch deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How far north is the .50 contour? if we can get that north of the Pike..that's a solid 3-5 inch deal Dendrite said Marshfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Dendrite said Marshfield. Hmm..well at least we've got a solid advisory snowfall out of this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles were actually worse than 12z despite the OP being slightly better. GFS will cave big time in the next few runs. I'm sure the Euro will come north some more too, but likely to be a compromise in favor of the Euro as it usually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles were actually worse than 12z despite the OP being slightly better. GFS will cave big time in the next few runs. I'm sure the Euro will come north some more too, but likely to be a compromise in favor of the Euro as it usually is. I guess it's time to visit the lawn thread then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 When the GFS folds on this later today..will we finally get any remaining huggers to admit it shouldn't be used? There's not many left I know..but for those of you who are...and you know who you are...will you finally admit it? It's unusable Yep. Unless it pulls a miracle for you guys. The ECM is king. But the actual will likely be a combination of the solutions where most will say the GFS wasn't right and Rollo will point out that the ECM wasn't perfect on Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Dendrite said Marshfield. Can anyone see the individual members? Is that a couple GFS type amped solutions with like 1"+ to NH (New Hampshire, not the Haven), followed by 75% members being complete misses that is skewing the mean to make it look robust to the NW? That's my only issue with ensemble means...it's like they should toss the 2-4 outliers in either direction then take a mean, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yep. Unless it pulls a miracle for you guys. The ECM is king. But the actual will likely be a combination of the solutions where most will say the GFS wasn't right and Rollo will point out that the ECM wasn't perfect on Cape Cod. I couldn't agree more...the solution is somewhere in-between and always is. No model has no use. The model talk this morning is about as exciting as temperature departure talk. Same old comments over and over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Can anyone see the individual members? ... That's my only issue with ensemble means...it's like they should toss the 2-4 outliers in either direction then take a mean, lol. This. There's a site somewhere that shows the ensembles, but with graphs. It highlights the mean 80% with the 10% high/low outliers still on there. I'll have to look it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm not sure about 06z, but 00z had pretty much every single member being a good hit down here. GEFS had every single member at 06z as a big hit for SNE...it varied on how far NW the big hits were...some got to CNE too, but all of them crushed at least the eastern half of SNE. I only can see spaghetti plots at H5 of the EC ensembles and there are more south this time than 12z...but it still has a cluster of a dozen or so that are pretty far north looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man, just reading the overnight posts, messenger is on a vendetta against the ECM lol.not at all but I think I've spelled out pretty clearly why I think it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm not sure about 06z, but 00z had pretty much every single member being a good hit down here. 00z from Ewall f84.gif Pretty sure 'freak was wondering about the Euro ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even local OCMs aren't biting lol. We'll all be glad to eat our own words, but I expect it to begin folding at 12z. Even 06z showed signs of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm not sure about 06z, but 00z had pretty much every single member being a good hit down here. 00z from Ewall f84.gif Oh yeah, I was talking about the ECM esembles. The GEFS are a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even local OCMs aren't biting lol. We'll all be glad to eat our own words, but I expect it to begin folding at 12z. Even 06z showed signs of it. I expect the GFS/SREFs to give two steps to the Euro while the Euro only gives one step in return as we close in on this event. My guess is still generally a scraper...long duration perhaps, but still the brunt stays well SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z it will have no areas of 1 inch in SNE..18 z will be down to .25. This will end up a 1-3 or 3-5 inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I expect the GFS/SREFs to give two steps to the Euro while the Euro only gives one step in return as we close in on this event. My guess is still generally a scraper...long duration perhaps, but still the brunt stays well SE. Yep, and that will add fuel to Messenger's fire about the euro being wrong, but no model is ever 100% correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 12z it will have no areas of 1 inch in SNE..18 z will be down to .25. This will end up a 1-3 or 3-5 inch snowfall Ha, maybe. That may be generous too...but we can hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles were actually worse than 12z despite the OP being slightly better. GFS will cave big time in the next few runs. I'm sure the Euro will come north some more too, but likely to be a compromise in favor of the Euro as it usually is. The euro missed sne by 400+ miles with the storm snow 24 hours ago. If the gfs ends up 100 miles too far NW but southern areas still get fringed I guess you could say the euro was better because it never did that, but it won't change the fact that it may have been woefully too far south again, it just never overdid it like the gfs. What specifically do you think the gfs and now nam are doing wrong? What is so glaring that you guys are certain the ncep stuff is wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ha, maybe. That may be generous too...but we can hope. With .25-.50 that's a decent snowfall..Even if it doesn't snow overly hard ..it will stick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yep, and that will add fuel to Messenger's fire about the euro being wrong, but no model is ever 100% correct. Yeah well I'm sure the Euro will be "wrong"...it will be just less wrong than the GFS. Its not like we are hugging the Euro verbatim right now...my guess is it bumps north a bit. We're just placing more weight on it than other guidance. The robust ensemble support helps too...including other foreign models that are generally supporting its more suppressed solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yep, and that will add fuel to Messenger's fire about the euro being wrong, but no model is ever 100% correct. The euro has already given about 10 steps to the gfs. Remember 2 runs ago it was 500 miles south of where it is now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looking at last night's runs, the difference between the 00z UKMET/00z GGEM and the 00Z GFS at 72 hours is quite impressive. GFS completely on an island with that solutation. I'm surprised neither of the usually amped UKMET or GGEM are going to town with this. I'd figure one would look somewhat like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even local OCMs aren't biting lol. We'll all be glad to eat our own words, but I expect it to begin folding at 12z. Even 06z showed signs of it. Nightmare of their calls last week fresh in their minds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even local OCMs aren't biting lol. We'll all be glad to eat our own words, but I expect it to begin folding at 12z. Even 06z showed signs of it. What are you thoughts if 12z holds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.