N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 More often that not I would say essentially that it was game over given that Euro run at this range. But the dramatic changes aloft on the Euro, and the GFS and SREF showing us what just a slight shift can do, leaves me mildly interested - earthlight in nyc thread good nite i want to see ens and i want to see euro put it all together on 12z tommorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Since the ensembles agree with the operational, it's not really that useless. There were some big changes on the Euro. Tomorrow should be really interesting. gfs is useless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 gfs is useless It has done fairly well this winter. You can't dismiss any model right now ( except for the Nam which sucks ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 gfs is useless I have more faith in the JMA... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 gfs is useless +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 gfs is useless you are up late sir.. earthlight seems to say euro made substanital shifts aloft so i would say it's def worth watching euro tommorrow with some raised eyebrows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 24 hours ago the Euro was mainly a miss in western PA. Take a look at wunder, 0z last night through 0z tonight before they dump the old feed. Pretty funny how far ENE/NE it's moved run to run to catch the other models with an undeniable trend of pulling the northern stream S/w further sw while speeding up the southern stream. It looks right now about like the 12z GFS in some regards and it won't surprise me at all of the Euro ENS are still robust. I see no reason to think the Euro adjustments are done. that hasn't been the history most of the winter, I think it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS has a bad rap this year but it has scored coups before, maybe this is one of those times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 More often that not I would say essentially that it was game over given that Euro run at this range. But the dramatic changes aloft on the Euro, and the GFS and SREF showing us what just a slight shift can do, leaves me mildly interested - earthlight in nyc thread good nite i want to see ens and i want to see euro put it all together on 12z tomorrow Respectfully I don't see that the game is over. 12 hours ago the Euro kept precip 400 or so miles south of New England at D4 (96), 12 hours later the edge of measurable is pretty much on the beach. Last night's 0z run at D5 had the low how many hundreds of miles further SW than this run? 500?? with the heavy precip never getting north of a position well east of Delaware...this run it misses ACK by a few dozen miles maybe. The Euro is doing the same thing it's done most of the winter. Take a look at the stall position for the last three runs down towards the MA. It's not a matter of "if it only ticks 50 miles north per run it won't matter" because eventually it's a tipping point towards a more significant system. The GFS is probably off the range, but I think the Euro is pretty bad too, and I think we get a decent hit in at least SE New England out of this, rain vs snow I have no idea, but it wouldn't surprise me to see the Euro ENS still more amped. Take a look at the Euro 0z last night vs the 12z and 0z tonight in the handling of the northern s/w. Attrocious if it's on the right course in phasing that in (too late tonight) but last night it was on its way to England days 4-5. Now look at what prevents a big hit up here tonight.....the slower nature of the ULL coming off the coast..but wait a minute it's gotten faster every run for 2 straight days with that feature more in line with the GFS. Split the difference and what you have is a system that does impact much of SNE, to what degree TBD. But I think the OP Euro is probably junk as it pertains to up here, and that we will see a wetter solution verify. JMHO, I could be totally wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS has a bad rap this year but it has scored coups before, maybe this is one of those times. Has the GFS scored with any big winter storms since Boxing Day 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 24 hours ago the Euro was mainly a miss in western PA. Take a look at wunder, 0z last night through 0z tonight before they dump the old feed. Pretty funny how far ENE/NE it's moved run to run to catch the other models with an undeniable trend of pulling the northern stream S/w further sw while speeding up the southern stream. It looks right now about like the 12z GFS in some regards and it won't surprise me at all of the Euro ENS are still robust. I see no reason to think the Euro adjustments are done. that hasn't been the history most of the winter, I think it continues. the poster i credited and copy and pasted with that comment wasn't saying it was over on a lot of systems , once the euro got a trend going aloft, it continued with that trend .....so you are right with that, and if this goes where you think its going, you will have scored a coup. if tomm at 12z, the euro moves the features aloft in the same amount and direction it did from 12z to 0z tonite, i think the surface features could improve almost exponentially which is pretty much what your saying wrt a tipping point for the euro.....changes aloft in this direction again at 12z tommorrow if they occur would equal a big change being likely....and i think euro ens at 3am could be a red flag for that occuring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am not saying any particular model is "correct", but the gfs solution verbatim is laughable. It must be demonstrating some silly climo bias, as very few storms are forced e or even se from the OV into the M/A and offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 i certainly wasn't saying it's over on a lot of systems , once the euro got a trend going aloft, it continued with that trend .....so you are right with that, and if this goes where you think its going, you will have scored a coup. if tomm at 12z, the euro moves the features aloft in the same amount and direction it did from 12z to 0z tonite, i think the surface features could improve almost exponentially Wunder will purge the old 0z soon but watching it to the south it's like watching the blizzard replay again as Phil and my epic wraparound became Ecksters blizzard. There is zero reason to think the euro is done speeding up the ULL exit or probably even the northern systems slower exit. Speed up the euro another 6 hours and the ULL doesn't escape. Even now it does clip se areas and it does phase the northern system. The nam is universally trashed at this range and is in pretty good agreement with the euro. Take a look at Chicago. The 0z last night barely touched that area. Now look at tonight. It just seems that the southern models are having a hard time even closer in. I may be totally wrong but I doubt we are bucking the seasonal trends here....the euro is going to continue to come north for another 2-3 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is a 99.9% chance that I will get more snow today than with the midweek system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 There is a 99.9% chance that I will get more snow today than with the midweek system. How much you want to bet? I lose and I have to play a party for you for free. I got a dusting tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 How much you want to bet? I lose and I have to play a party for you for free. I got a dusting tonight. If I win I get to play with Johnny Depp on Letterman next time. Which was pretty cool btw...I watched it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If I win I get to play with Johnny Depp on Letterman next time. Which was pretty cool btw...I watched it. And I was talking March 4th as "today". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ncep says 2/3 euro, 1/3 gfs. Good starting point for my area. Also they note the euro is "profoundly faster" than last nights run while the gfs didn't change much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Haha Thanks!! But yes, I'm dealing this. I get 0.25" or more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Haha Thanks!! But yes, I'm dealing this. I get 0.25" or more than that. I am forecasting a dusting to 2 inches for today...and remember I do not live in Attleboro anymore...I live in Maine. For here it's a very large stretch for the midweek system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Has the GFS scored with any big winter storms since Boxing Day 2010? Well it was right on a miss back 2-3 years ago, all the mets on Boston tv were calling for a biggie because the euro showed a big hit but the GFS didnt, GFS was right and the storm missed se. With the euros changes as Rollo pointed out the GFS could be on to something. The GFS is tired of getting no respect and is gonna show em all up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 euro keeps this beast going out in the atlantic spinning long enuf to phase in another piece of energy at hr 180-192 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 euro keeps this beast going out in the atlantic spinning long enuf to phase in another piece of energy at hr 180-192 Truth is somewhere in the middle the guess is to which side will the truth lean? Everyone assumes the euro which I find strange particularly if the euro ens are more interesting again vs the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well it was right on a miss back 2-3 years ago, all the mets on Boston tv were calling for a biggie because the euro showed a big hit but the GFS didnt, GFS was right and the storm missed se. With the euros changes as Rollo pointed out the GFS could be on to something. The GFS is tired of getting no respect and is gonna show em all up. 2-3 years ago... and the GFS wonders why it gets no respect, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 what a c*cktease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 6z GFS not backing down. Blizzard for I84 in CT to BOS axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man, just reading the overnight posts, messenger is on a vendetta against the ECM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS will fold. Trust me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro ensembles say no way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would think 10% of the GFS QPF for my 'hood would be a major miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.