Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It can move 150 miles SE and still give a decent thump. I don't buy it, but models have shifted around in this time frame before. That said..my guess is similar to Will..Euro will come NW over the next two days..but perhaps enough for a tease while the GFS goes SE. I hope I'm wrong, obviously. It is interesting that the ensembles are consistently north of the op. This is beginning to remind me of the Feb 2010 GFS coup . GFS and its ensembles kept showing a big hit while the other models were no where close. GFS won the battle that storm for sure. We can dream right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What has a better chance of happening....getting swallowed up by a sinkhole while sleeping, or the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is beginning to remind me of the Feb 2010 GFS coup . GFS and its ensembles kept showing a big hit while the other models were no where close. GFS won the battle that storm for sure. We can dream right. You talking about Feb 5-6, 2010? Because it def didn't score a coup in Feb 9-10, 2010....in fact that storm was one of the biggest GFS fails I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 UKMET 12z vs 0z. The 12z UKMET had a position similar but even SE of the Euro by 96-120 hours. It's gone north about 300-500 miles from it's earlier run at that timeframe. The Euro is going to come north I'd think by a decent amount if the old "UK leads the way for the Euro" deal still works. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is beginning to remind me of the Feb 2010 GFS coup . GFS and its ensembles kept showing a big hit while the other models were no where close. GFS won the battle that storm for sure. We can dream right. I would love for the brits to suck it, but in the end..those snaggle tooth bastards laugh at us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Something will violently give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The best part about the GEFS is that it gives SNE a bigger storm than DC Assuming the goofus fails miserably, imagine the amount of bashing from Kev for us considering it. And its taking everything he has not to jump in bed with the gfs. Pretty funny stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You talking about Feb 5-6, 2010? Because it def didn't score a coup in Feb 9-10, 2010....in fact that storm was one of the biggest GFS fails I've ever seen. I am sorry, the storm I'm thinking about was December 25-26 2010 , the famous initialization error storm where the GFS was the only model showing a big hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 You talking about Feb 5-6, 2010? Because it def didn't score a coup in Feb 9-10, 2010....in fact that storm was one of the biggest GFS fails I've ever seen. 2/10/10 should never be mentioned in this forum lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I would love for the brits to suck it, but in the end..those snaggle tooth bastards laugh at us. A couple of family guy episodes are coming to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am sorry, the storm I'm thinking about was December 25-26 2010 , the famous initialization error storm where the GFS was the only model showing a big hit... Oh right, the Boxing Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GGEM so far the only 0z model that trended away from more northern stream involvement from the upper midwest vort. Seems kind of odd for it to just back off on that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 EURO looks better @ 48 hrs It still doesnt have the GFS 500mb look at 48 hrs, but it should be better in the end we'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 EURO looks better @ 48 hrs It still doesnt have the GFS 500mb look at 48 hrs, but it should be better in the end we'll see Are you a paying viewer for the Euro? If so, you will be the PBP man tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I am sorry, the storm I'm thinking about was December 25-26 2010 , the famous initialization error storm where the GFS was the only model showing a big hit... nam showed the hit first at 18z then gfsfollowed an hour later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Are you a paying viewer for the Euro? If so, you will be the PBP man tonight! Yes I have stormvista Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 nam showed the hit first at 18z then gfsfollowed an hour later No, 12z GFS showed it, NWS wrote it off as having initialization errors. I am over 100% positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes I have stormvista Rock on. I'm hearing some pretty major changes? Can you elaborate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Some rather significant changes on the Euro through 48 hours. More interactions from both streams. - earthlight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 996 low off the coast of SE VA @ 66 In comparison the 12z EURO had a low over NC at this time frame. Plus that energy that tries to dive in near the Great Lakes is more SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro a bit better, but far from the insanity that the GFS/GEFS show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No, 12z GFS showed it, NWS wrote it off as having initialization errors. I am over 100% positive. that's not my memory of it...but on to the euro lookin sign better wrt to phase as met in nyc thread said after earthlight comment above....thou met states it's not in gfs like solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 @ 72 HRs the Low still does that dive SE from its 66hr point. Precip doesn't get above C NJ through 72 hrs...Not gonna do it this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The EURO showing these changes though tells me nothing is written in stone yet. We'll see, like Coastal says we'll probably see them converge, but more on the EURO side of things. Still 3-4 days left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA, and then the Euro/GFS overlay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The EURO showing these changes though tells me nothing is written in stone yet. We'll see, like Coastal says we'll probably see them converge, but more on the EURO side of things. Still 3-4 days left yup apparently there was more of a signature of the ULL retro from nw atlantic on this euro run but nothing like the gfs....well see what the ENS show It really tried at first, but that retrograding shortwave just has a very poor reflection this run. -dsnowx53 nyc thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I think we all agree the NAM is the worst model we have outside of 24 hours. Here's the NAM and Euro overlayed at 48 hours, pretty good agreement. Maybe this is another one of those times when things work out of the NAM....but then again maybe it's a red flag too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 ec Gets light precip as far north as Atlantic City, but then bye-bye. No surprises there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 gfs is useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 gfs is useless. Since the ensembles agree with the operational, it's not really that useless. There were some big changes on the Euro. Tomorrow should be really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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