Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So what's the explanation for the Euro ENS being considerably wetter/stronger than the 12z Euro? It's not easterly flow that added up to .5"...I'm curious as to what the reasoning might be for the Ensembles of both of those models being more severe than their operational counterparts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah agree. I guess the one thing this has going is that the conveyor belt of moisture will extend so far NW..maybe we can get clipped with it. We'll see what the euro does..probably just comes a little NW..but I'd be shocked at a large jump. It's not just the low pressure location..it's the handling of the low and how it dumbells a lobe to our SE which helps aid in the dumping. Yeah I may not even stay up for the Euro...probaly not worth it to see a 50 mile jump NW that still misses us by 200 miles. But we'll see how tired I am by 12:30. Vegas odds are now posting on when the GFS makes its huge jump back south...06z run or 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have a video for you guys that you will go nutty over. The FIRST Time I have ever Filmed myself watching a model, and I catch one of the ABSOLUTE Biggest surprises ever. An American or European model? What's her name? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT tossing gfs of course lol. He's saying our upstate NY vort is a fake. The 0z UKMET has the vort. But it phases in later than the GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Vegas odds are now posting on when the GFS makes its huge jump back south...06z run or 12z run. I'd go with the 12z run... seems like the GFS enjoys tormenting us as long as possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So what's the explanation for the Euro ENS being considerably wetter/stronger than the 12z Euro? It's not easterly flow that added up to .5"...I'm curious as to what the reasoning might be for the Ensembles of both of those models being more severe than their operational counterparts. Its probably clipping us with some of the CCB on the Ec ensembles. The sfc really isn't any further NW than the OP run but the upper air probably allows it to expand the precip shield just enough for a slow adding up to half inch of qpf as it passes well SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The 0z UKMET has the vort. But it phases in later than the GFS: I like DT, but he's not accurate in saying it's a mystery feature. It's the same darned feature that's spinning south of Cape Cod right now and causing the dusting of snow I have with light snow. The GFS rotates it east, then up, then back down through Maine separating it from the main complex which drops SE. The NAM and others do NOT do that, the NAM never gets it back over us, although IMO it strongly hints at it. But it doesn't.... It's not a mystery feature, loop at 500mb, it's very easy to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its probably clipping us with some of the CCB on the Ec ensembles. The sfc really isn't any further NW than the OP run but the upper air probably allows it to expand the precip shield just enough for a slow adding up to half inch of qpf as it passes well SE. Thanks...can you guys see the individual members or is that under lock and key at the Euro conclave? NCEP waiting on the Euro to decide which way to lean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The one thing I respect on this low, is the conveyor belt of moisture. Even on the euro op, it would not take a miracle for a decent little event....esp inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT going ape on his facebook page and calling forums like ours filled with crap and liars. This guy needs to learn to not say crap like that. Sorry for OT, but on his page it, he is referencing this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Thanks...can you guys see the individual members or is that under lock and key at the Euro conclave? NCEP waiting on the Euro to decide which way to lean. I can see spaghetti plots at H5....the OP is def on the southern 20% or so of the other 50 ensemble members with the H5 position at 84 hours on the 12z run. It looks like there's probably a dozen or so members too that phase a lot of energy in from New England just trying to judge it by the height lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT going ape on his facebook page and calling forums like ours filled with crap and liars. This guy needs to learn to not say crap like that. Who is this DT guy that everyone talks about so often? The one thing I respect on this low, is the conveyor belt of moisture. Even on the euro op, it would not take a miracle for a decent little event....esp inland. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it's windy with some rain and snow showers... GFS is crazy though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seeing so many GEF members on board like that, some identical at that ... such that the mean is remarkable agreement, if this doesn't work out in the GFS' favor it will be worth it to explore why, because that much agreement is systemic in nature. It's not like the GFS' is acting like a rogue member here. The genetics of the GEFs becomes reproachable - not just the GFS operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Who is this DT guy that everyone talks about so often? Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if it's windy with some rain and snow showers... GFS is crazy though, lol. Tough to buy...but we'll see. Can't 100% toss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 We are rooting for you guys euro is playing dikembe mutumbo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Tough to buy...but we'll see. Can't 100% toss it. GFS is such a far outlier though, I would think the odds are quite low of it even being close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT going ape on his facebook page and calling forums like ours filled with crap and liars. This guy needs to learn to not say crap like that. Sorry for OT, but on his page it, he is referencing this storm. It's a real feature, the GFS and UKMET both Fujiwhara the dual centers (the one that's south of us "wins" and ends up getting tossed west). UK/GFS are very similar with it, NAM and GGEM not so much. But, it's a real feature and like I said loop a 500mb GFS/UKMET vs the NAM it's not difficult to track. It's not some anomaly or feedback issue, it's just handling the flizzard from tonight differently. I'd tend to think the GFS would handle this block better than the NAM but we will see. I can see spaghetti plots at H5....the OP is def on the southern 20% or so of the other 50 ensemble members with the H5 position at 84 hours on the 12z run. It looks like there's probably a dozen or so members too that phase a lot of energy in from New England just trying to judge it by the height lines. Interesting. I'm puzzled by the ENS being NW unless they're just smoothing out the vortmax effect. It's interesting to loop the 500mb maps from all the models. We have an unstable top spinning towards the coast. Almost like sticking a piece of tape to the side of a top and spinning it with the tape being the strong vortmax. It's going to cause major wobbles and it's going to be very difficult for the models to nail this. I'd expect the Euro would rule here as it almost always does, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seeing so many GEF members on board like that, some identical at that ... such that the mean is remarkable agreement, if this doesn't work out in the GFS' favor it will be worth it to explore why, because that much agreement is systemic in nature. It's now like the GFS' is acting like a rogue member here. The genetics of the GEFs becomes reproachable - not just the GFS operational. Maybe the model is trying to see how far off it can be, until it finally gets money for an upgrade? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty crazy that the GEFS gives SNE the most precip for any location LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Pretty crazy that the GEFS gives SNE the most precip for any location LOL! Lol the euro will whiff us in half an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'd take the GFS with a grain of salt unless and until the Euro comes on board. Take it from someone on the perpetual nw fringe this year who has been teased by the GFS a few times. Toss, This would be a huge failure for one one of these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA came pretty far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA looks really similiar to the GFS at hour 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA came pretty far north. Map? Not that the JMA should really have much stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm really hoping the GFS is right (I have no idea what it does for our members south of CT, haven't looked so this isn't us vs them) simply because it'd be a curb stomp of the Euro to end the winter. Will, can't post, but it should be updated publicly in a moment. JMA has been pretty far north on this one for about a day too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA only goes out to 72 hrs, and it's tough to say how far north it would get. On the JMA the vorticity is still on the backside of the ULL like the NAM et al while the GFS @ 72 hours is already heading towards SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 JMA looks really similiar to the GFS at hour 72 No it doesnt really at all. Looks more like a NAM/EURO mix imo. 500mb JMA looks NOTHING like the GFS, but thats enough on the japanese. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Map? Not that the JMA should really have much stock. My limited ...I say "limited" experience with that guidance source, it wasn't as bad as all that. Hell, I think the Koreans run a model - what the hell does that one depict? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 No it doesnt really at all. Looks more like a NAM/EURO mix imo. 500mb JMA looks NOTHING like the GFS, but thats enough on the japanese. Yeah, it's somewhere in between. Has anyone seen the UK beyond 72? I'm curious to see what a similar setup to the GFS but displaced SE with the ULL would do beyond 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is such a far outlier though, I would think the odds are quite low of it even being close. It can move 150 miles SE and still give a decent thump. I don't buy it, but models have shifted around in this time frame before. That said..my guess is similar to Will..Euro will come NW over the next two days..but perhaps enough for a tease while the GFS goes SE. I hope I'm wrong, obviously. It is interesting that the ensembles are consistently north of the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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