SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT tossing gfs of course lol. He's saying our upstate NY vort is a fake. Haters gon' hate. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT tossing gfs of course lol. He's saying our upstate NY vort is a fake. Its not very difficult to toss the GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 DT tossing gfs of course lol. He's saying our upstate NY vort is a fake. That feature is actually the same one parked just SE of Cape Cod right now. It rotates up and around before getting shunted west. It'd be one of the craziest evolutions I've ever seen, but the UK and GGEM give it some credence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Unless the Euro trends to this upstate NY feature. I'd say we are not getting this thing to hit us like the gfs has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's coming. gfs? sure did. ;P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its not very difficult to toss the GFS at this point. Even Kevin tossed it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even Kevin tossed it awt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even Kevin tossed it Yes and he also said the system 3 days before the Blizzard would give us more snow than the blizzard. Kind of like my comment earlier about the GFS caving just before it showed the great march blizzard of 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even Kevin tossed it This reminds me of when the GFS went nuts for a few runs pretty close in on the Feb 16-17 event for E MA. Obviously different setup, but it did this like 48 hours out and ended up being wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 1 point. Probably a key point in what the vortmax SE of Cape Cod does later starts now in how strong it is. The NAM I believe without a doubt initialized way too weak with that feature. GFS was better, doesn't mean it'll be right later in the run and that'll end up in NY, but the NAM is likely far too weak for whatever reason. That's unusual, normally the GFS is more muted with those features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 This reminds me of when the GFS went nuts for a few runs pretty close in on the Feb 16-17 event for E MA. Obviously different setup, but it did this like 48 hours out and ended up being wrong. Just how variable is that feature to our nw that the gfs uses to pull it into a monster for us? From what I'm reading on here it sounds Like the other 00z runs incorporated it a bit more than 12z, but clearly not with the gfs results lol. How tough would it be to get that to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Even Kevin tossed it He's tossing it as he dreams of northward adjustment on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 1 point. Probably a key point in what the vortmax SE of Cape Cod does later starts now in how strong it is. The NAM I believe without a doubt initialized way too weak with that feature. GFS was better, doesn't mean it'll be right later in the run and that'll end up in NY, but the NAM is likely far too weak for whatever reason. That's unusual, normally the GFS is more muted with those features. 4km was fine, and it still never gets it back into New England like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Just how variable is that feature to our nw that the gfs uses to pull it into a monster for us? From what I'm reading on here it sounds Like the other 00z runs incorporated it a bit more than 12z, but clearly not with the gfs results lol. How tough would it be to get that to happen? Its not the only reason the GFS is north, but its one of them. GFS isn't as slow with the whole ULL either. But getting other guidance to do what the GFS does is probably pretty difficult given the time frame involved. Not impossible as we did see some trends that way, but we we need more than baby steps in the next run or two. Baby steps won't cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS a crushing blow. Either the biggest coup ever, or the biggest flop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS still very robust...actually quite a bi tmore than 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Something will violently give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GEFS still very robust...actually quite a bi tmore than 18z GEFS And NW of the 0z Op run wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 gefs 1.75 from cape ann to kbos to wrenthem then down RI/ma border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 For the first time ever I'm praying for a miss, the one weekend of the year where my buddies and I get together and go away and of course we're flying out of Boston to DC Thursday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Something will violently give. I know where my bets would be, lol. It will probably be a compromise weighted toward the Euro like it is almost every single time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's still going at 120, but this is a majority of it. Very similar to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Who's staying up for the Euro run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Something will violently give. The GFS ensembles aren't really all that good either. They are supposed to add confidence to a forecast but I have noticed over the years they really don't a lot of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I know where my bets would be, lol. It will probably be a compromise weighted toward the Euro like it is almost every single time. Yeah agree. I guess the one thing this has going is that the conveyor belt of moisture will extend so far NW..maybe we can get clipped with it. We'll see what the euro does..probably just comes a little NW..but I'd be shocked at a large jump. It's not just the low pressure location..it's the handling of the low and how it dumbells a lobe to our SE which helps aid in the dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS ensembles aren't really all that good either. They are supposed to add confidence to a forecast but I have noticed over the years they really don't a lot of the time. They essentially mimick the OP run with a smoother look I've figured out once inside of 3 or 4 days. Looking at the individual members helps some, but I'll bet tonight almost all of them have a huge hit which really doesn't make me that much more confident...esp since the ensemble mean seems to shift almost as fast as the OP run from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The GFS ensembles aren't really all that good either. They are supposed to add confidence to a forecast but I have noticed over the years they really don't a lot of the time. 5-6 days out not one member had a hit for the blizz. It's closer now..but I still can't buy that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have a video for you guys that you will go nutty over. The FIRST Time I have ever Filmed myself watching a model, and I catch one of the ABSOLUTE Biggest surprises ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Very similar to the 12z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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