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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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It def made a jump toward the GFs, but its still got a ways to go to make it into a major event up here. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised at a scraper where some areas get a few inches, but you'd like to start seeing some other guidance pound the region or at least get very very close.

 

 

Will can really see where the big difference is with this map.  It's all in the vorticity around the ULL.  Everything else is really pretty similar for this time range, clearly.  IE across New England the UK is buying into the rogue west running s/w...etc.  It's just off the eastern seaboard that the other models keep the ULL moving along with that vortmax on the southeast side.

As you said we need something, anything else to come north in a big way.  Who knows, maybe it's the Euro.  It wasn't all that far off at 12z, only piece missing was the rogue s/w to kind of help things along.  But these two models agree on the northern energy coming down very well, and the new England rogue s/w. 

 

Too funny, what a PITA.

 

EDIT:  Matt the UKMET tugs that energy west too this run.  So with regards to that, it's the GFS/UK v NAM and old Euro.  

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Yeah GGEM is pretty much a no show...isn't any better than 12z verbatim for us, though it does handle the whole evolution a bit different. IT has some of that energy left behind in NE.

 

Yeah weaker though, on the maps above it's really hard to pick out.  It kind of bails on the energy coming down from Canada this run.  On again off again.

 

It's closer with the heavy stuff, but this isn't horseshoes.

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