NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 WOW it's getting tucked in towards the BM! Snows for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Its all about the neutral the ULL gets, its tough for me to explain, but looking at NAM & GFS the NAM has most of the vorticity in the SW quadrant of the ULL, while the GFS gets it around to the ENE side and kind of forces its way North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok, I have it in thru 66 at work. I have it at 99 on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok, I have it in thru 66 at work. Check out this: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_0z/avneastloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not much time left either, what a crazy winter of model craziness, except for the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is the storm of the century pretty much, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is the storm of the century pretty much, LOL. The winds would absolutely rip for you and Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Check out this: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVNEAST_0z/avneastloop.html Thanks, I had forgotten about that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still snowing at 102. Now cue the posts saying that the GGEM and uncle are way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The winds would absolutely rip for you and Phil. It'd be one of the largest of all time. Nice, very good agreement between the models. The only thing I'll say is the 12z Euro wasn't all that far off but it just wants to bury the ULL out of reach, like the NAM. GFS tends to be too fast, Euro sometimes too slow, this solution just seems to be on drugs but then again the 12z Euro ENS were considerably more aggressive than the 12z OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I'm rooting for the GFS coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shawnmov Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 102 hours and not letting go, LOL GFS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What a cracked up solution on the GFS....basically a long duration (>40h) snowstorm that peaks as an 18-24 hour blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 image.jpg image.jpg This is somewhat similar to the 0z GFS. And this from the model that was the furthest south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 So UKIE came north a bit and phases in more energy hmmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah Jerry, Uncle def not biting....did look to move a good amount north once it exits the coast, but still well south. It was in the Euro camp at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Toss, This would be a huge failure for one one of these models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gfs dumps melted 2 inches qpf 128 east and 2.5 PYM SE. Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gfs dumps melted 2 inches qpf 128 east and 2.5 PYM SE. Crazy! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 48hr RGEM, btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Still snowing at 102. Now cue the posts saying that the GGEM and uncle are way south. Yeah Jerry, Uncle def not biting....did look to move a good amount north once it exits the coast, but still well south. It was in the Euro camp at 12z. And there you go. Now we just wait for the GGEM. Maybe the federal government will throw some more money towards the NWS to improve these models. Oh....wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is pretty much on an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 What a cracked up solution on the GFS....basically a long duration (>40h) snowstorm that peaks as an 18-24 hour blizzard.the track from how it entera the mid atlantic and reforms and moves up the coast remnds me a lot o Presidents Day 2003event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah Jerry, Uncle def not biting....did look to move a good amount north once it exits the coast, but still well south. It was in the Euro camp at 12z. It's actually pretty close for 72 hours. Same weak feature up near Lake Placid which I don't think it had last run (the mystery west riding s/w), the feature near the Lakes...and the main ULL itself is within a 100 or so miles of the GFS position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 The gfs looks awfully weak...1004mb sfc low @ 48hr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS/UK are not as far off as people are making it out. Again the difference is the GFS isn't burying the ULL like most of the others. There's actually pretty outstanding agreement on everything else, ridging in the middle US, feature up in upstate NY, coming into the Lakes etc. The other models bottom load everything in as a result the ULL ends up out ESE. Important to note the UK did come north vs the last run. GFS continued north. Now onto the rest of the models. UK was the furthest south as NCEP noted last run and was essentially tossed by them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The gfs looks awfully weak...1004mb sfc low @ 48hr? 988 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's actually pretty close for 72 hours. Same weak feature up near Lake Placid which I don't think it had last run (the mystery west riding s/w), the feature near the Lakes...and the main ULL itself is within a 100 or so miles of the GFS position. It def made a jump toward the GFs, but its still got a ways to go to make it into a major event up here. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised at a scraper where some areas get a few inches, but you'd like to start seeing some other guidance pound the region or at least get very very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's the rogue retrograding energy at 5h that loops around the storm and tugs it north, it was there at 18z and stronger at 00z hence the more amped/north solution at 00z. It's much much weaker on the 00z NAM, will be curious to see if the euro has this energy. The 12z euro basically lets this energy escape offshore ahead of the storm rather than retrograding and looping around/tugging the storm north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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