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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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I missed that convo. Can you tell me what he said?

 

Will...hopefully he can chime in but something about a storm we once had where a piece of energy over us phased in.  Note the GFS has the energy all other models ejected now getting ripped west across New England.  Kind of bizzaro to me but this is such an anomalous situation who knows.  To me the GFS was heading towards the Euro and then suddenly we have the feature over us coming west, and all sorts of crazy stuff going on...we're actually not far from the wobble I mentioned to Bob a few days ago that'd take the ULL off SNJ. 

 

North, south, weak sauce, amped!

 

Let it play out, but looks good for the snow starved weenies in CHI and DC.

 

I'm not commenting about those areas at all, I think the GFS is on drugs until it's supported by additional models based on this evolution tonight. 

 

Keep in mind the analogs Quincy posted earlier...now look kind of similar to the 0z GFS.  Ha.

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Is it a battle or just the GFS on crack?

 

 

Most likely the latter. Remember the 2/10/10 storm when the GFS had a 6 hour forecast of over half inch of qpf in 6 hours from 12z-18z to BOS-ORH? It was so bad that storm. Granted other guidance busted too but the GFS led the way. Euro kept throwing up red flags and most of us finally ignored them.

 

 

I think that was the storm where you had to talk to state officials on whether they should close stuff the next day, lol. I had my worst bust in that one too...telling all my clients 6-12" and we got about 2" of glop.

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Most likely the latter. Remember the 2/10/10 storm when the GFS had a 6 hour forecast of over half inch of qpf in 6 hours from 12z-18z to BOS-ORH? It was so bad that storm. Granted other guidance busted too but the GFS led the way. Euro kept throwing up red flags and most of us finally ignored them.

 

 

I think that was the storm where you had to talk to state officials on whether they should close stuff the next day, lol. I had my worst bust in that one too...telling all my clients 6-12" and we got about 2" of glop.

yeah, that was the one where Deval patrick was in his jammies in his bedroom on the 4 am conference call and decided to shut down the state after my briefing. Oops.

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GFS is now a blizzard for Boston Wednesday night. 

 

Yeah, roof crusher.

 

Should we invoke the NAM supporting any model in any way rule?  Maybe the NAM being slower like the Euro leads to a we toss scenario.

 

In any case, yikes.  Check out the GFS at 500mb 87 to 90 hours, ULL moves due north. 

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