Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is going to cause some anxious moments for some. I'm happy that we're right now solidly in the no-go or light hit zone. Too much worrying to be in the clobbering band. NAM is essentially the 12z Euro by about 48 hours, or very close to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 To me the 0z NAM is going to end up like the Euro from 12z. It's back end loaded on the s/w-trough. That's how/why the Euro ended up spinning right offshore. Looks very similar as we approach 60 hours to the 12z Euro at 72..or similar enough anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 already well outside of nam's useful range. meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, the NAM is certainly not going to make it interesting up here this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yeah, the NAM is certainly not going to make it interesting up here this run. Partly cloudy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM will miss DC with the heaviest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is it trying to do a NORLUN thing around 54-60? What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 NAM is a nightmare for BWI if not DC...*thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Is it trying to do a NORLUN thing around 54-60? What is that? Looks like a little bit of lift and e/ne flow enhancing some light precip. Not an instability trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Will, .Ryan etc... What's the historical precedent for closed ULL's exiting Hatteras and moving SE as the NAM and Euro try to do? I can't remember it happening but I'm sure it has? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam would be interesting if it weren't such a worthless model outside 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Nam would be interesting if it weren't such a worthless model outside 3 hours. Lol pretty much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Looks like a little bit of lift and e/ne flow enhancing some light precip. Not an instability trof thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Not that it matters looking quickly at sref ens, more amped and slightly quicker solutions all are fairly far north and tick sne. however, bottom line is still pretty far out there in time. The op 0z nam looks to fall somewhat more in line with the slower and lower members, at a glance anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Scott made a comment on the MA thread about not worrying about the NAM. Maybe, but it is interesting how much it looks like the 12z Euro. EDIT: Pretty much it comes down to what Birving notes, slower it's going to be south, faster it'll make it up and around. NAM and 12z Euro are in the slow camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 oops posted wrong image, sorry. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Scott made a comment on the MA thread about not worrying about the NAM. Maybe, but it is interesting how much it looks like the 12z Euro. EDIT: Pretty much it comes down to what Birving notes, slower it's going to be south, faster it'll make it up and around. NAM and 12z Euro are in the slow camp. It may look like it, but not for the same reasons IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It may look like it, but not for the same reasons IMO. It's fairly similar at 500mb though. Especially in how it handles the vortmax that slings around the base of the ULL which seems to be the impetus for the SE movement which also serves to slow movement and prevent a northward turn until it's far too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It's fairly similar at 500mb though. Especially in how it handles the vortmax that slings around the base of the ULL which seems to be the impetus for the SE movement which also serves to slow movement and prevent a northward turn until it's far too late. It takes the s/w near the Lakes more ENE. Maybe the NAM is right, but it's more luck than anything at hr 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It takes the s/w near the Lakes more ENE. Maybe the NAM is right, but it's more luck than anything at hr 72. Yeah, not really saying that it's right, just curious that it is still running on the slow side towards the Euro. Like I said happy I'm up here there's no expectation if things don't break our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is going to cave I think pretty hard this run. Bottom loaded structure like the Euro/NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 GFS is going to cave I think pretty hard this run. Bottom loaded structure like the Euro/NAM. Far from caving this run. It's phasing in more energy from two different streams this run. It will be north of its 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Gfs looks north to me Edit about the same as 18z at 57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lolol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I don't think it looks anything like the Euro or NAM. We need so much help up here it may not matter, but that is a totally amped look compared to the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Far from caving this run. It's phasing in more energy from two different streams this run. It will be north of its 12z. The thing with the GFS...it has a closed contour vortmax spinning west over New England. IF that were to verify you have the situation Will was talking about earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Quite a storm for DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The thing with the GFS...it has a closed contour vortmax spinning west over New England. IF that were to verify you have the situation Will was talking about earlier. I missed that convo. Can you tell me what he said? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Jesus... the GFS is substantially northwest of the 18z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 North, south, weak sauce, amped! Let it play out, but looks good for the snow starved weenies in CHI and DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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