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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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Watch the 00z GFS come rollin' on in with a stalled 4 contoured black hole just S of LI, and 3 days of snow and wind...  

 

Actually, that reminds me, this thing's cold air is rotting during it's max whatever - it may end cold misting on in time. And though it is probably stupid to debate details given the larger looming uncertainties, but a more direct impact should be a cold liquid nor'easter for a lot of the CP one would think.  

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There's a lot of talk of how the March sun angle will make big snowstorms difficult... but is that really true? In my 15 years in Boston I remember plenty of good March snowstorms when you'd think it's midwinter, and even today, after a partly sunny morning, it clouded up and started flurrying in the middle of the day. Why so much negativity towards March (other than the several clunkers we've had)... is there any scientific truth to it? 

 

Of course there is scientific truth to it, the sun just torches us so much more now than 2 months ago. Simple fact.

 

Beyond that, I tend to agree with where you are going in that it is probably overplayed by alot of us. I don't know if its just recent history or what. Looking at the possibilities for midweek, its pretty clear that we are going to need the dynamics to come through outside of the hills. Its "cool" but not cold and definitely a stale airmass. The biggies in March either have a strong cold anomaly sitting to our north reinforced by a nice high or manage to bomb and paste. I'm NOT convinced we dont get decent dynamics in here for Wed's threat but we'll see. Either way, I don't know why people are calling rainer on the coast or inland special or its gonna be hard to get anything. We can't even be sure of the synoptics to any reasonable degree right now so to start talking about who is torched and who is not is premature. Everyone has a chance to be in the game as of now.

 

That said, we dont always need bombs. I think 03 featured a few "run of the mill" 4"-ish storms well into March. St Patrick's Day '00, ditto. Probably a 1 or 2 in '05 that I'm forgetting. It happens more than we like to remember. I'm fairly lazy and not all that interested in digging up data from past years. Maybe somebody can be objective about it.

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Just a hunch but I wouldn't be surprised to see a super amped blizzard come in on the NAM only to be left with cirrus on the Euro. 
Just a hunch but I wouldn't be surprised to see a super amped blizzard come in on the NAM only to be left with cirrus on the Euro. 
Lol, yea right, well one thing cirrus probably not with that circulation
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Watch the 00z GFS come rollin' on in with a stalled 4 contoured black hole just S of LI, and 3 days of snow and wind...  

 

Actually, that reminds me, this thing's cold air is rotting during it's max whatever - it may end cold misting on in time. And though it is probably stupid to debate details given the larger looming uncertainties, but a more direct impact should be a cold liquid nor'easter for a lot of the CP one would think.  

 

 

A la 1888, that would be cool.

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Of course there is scientific truth to it, the sun just torches us so much more now than 2 months ago. Simple fact.

 

Beyond that, I tend to agree with where you are going in that it is probably overplayed by alot of us. I don't know if its just recent history or what. Looking at the possibilities for midweek, its pretty clear that we are going to need the dynamics to come through outside of the hills. Its "cool" but not cold and definitely a stale airmass. The biggies in March either have a strong cold anomaly sitting to our north reinforced by a nice high or manage to bomb and paste.

 

That said, we dont always need bombs. I think 03 featured a few "run of the mill" 4"-ish storms well into March. St Patrick's Day '00, ditto. Probably a 1 or 2 in '05 that I'm forgetting. It happens more than we like to remember. I'm fairly lazy and not all that interested in digging up data from past years. Maybe somebody can be objective about it.

 

 

March has bene pretty paltry recently...2007 had the St. Patty's day (reall the night of Mar 16 into predawn the 17th) storm which dropped over 8" of snow and sleet in BOS...it was in the 60s a couple days prior...but we got a pretty fresh airmass in the day before.

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If I'm rooting this storm only for it to pour rain on my head I may just drive off road. I mean what is there a one week period of climo when the cp (by 128 I'm talkin!!) Can get freakin snow with deep e flow, water temps are cold, cmon the 128 belt better damn well be colder than in the last event

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If I'm rooting this storm only for it to pour rain on my head I may just drive off road. I mean what is there a one week period of climo when the cp (by 128 I'm talkin!!) Can get freakin snow with deep e flow, water temps are cold, cmon the 128 belt better damn well be colder than in the last event

 

:weenie:

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The sun angle gets mentioned in so many storms, yet it seems some never learn. The same was said during the Oct 2011 snow. Like CJA said..there is truth to it, but rates supersede ALL.

 

If you're snowing 1" per hour it doesn't matter at all. Some never learn lol

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The sun angle gets mentioned in so many storms, yet it seems some never learn. The same was said during the Oct 2011 snow. Like CJA said..there is truth to it, but rates supersede ALL.

Weak rates and relatively thin overcast during the day are the big killers. If we accumulated snow in late May of 2002 during the day then we can in March. :)

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I threw in the towel after the 2/24 storm.

I put up a winter storm warning on the evening shift on the 23rd for snow that was starting in 8 hours or less as the models seemed to have finally jived (with the euro leading the way). The 00z gfs came in a few hours later and chopped my qpf at least in half (with maybe a third of an inch here). I ended up getting a foot. I am not talking about catching a pattern 4-8 days in advance...i am talking about the real short term where big decisions need to be made. this is where it has continued to fail and embarrasingly so in higher impact situations.

 

I honestly can't remember the last time I used the GFS as a base for a forecast grid in the first five periods. It's a shame too, because we have so much data that is GFS based. It's the only real long range model that we get significant resolution data for in GFE. It's all tainted.

 

If the GFS is wrong, so is the MEX, and so is the WNA wave guidance, etc. Instead of the forecast funnel, it's become the forecast shame spiral.

 

I'd also rather not make too much noise about getting Euro ensemble data into the WFOs. We might accidentally let HQ know they're paying for the Euro in the first place. God forbid they take that away. We'll all be using our phones to make the forecast.

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I honestly can't remember the last time I used the GFS as a base for a forecast grid in the first five periods. It's a shame too, because we have so much data that is GFS based. It's the only real long range model that we get significant resolution data for in GFE. It's all tainted.

 

If the GFS is wrong, so is the MEX, and so is the WNA wave guidance, etc. Instead of the forecast funnel, it's become the forecast shame spiral.

 

I'd also rather not make too much noise about getting Euro ensemble data into the WFOs. We might accidentally let HQ know they're paying for the Euro in the first place. God forbid they take that away. We'll all be using our phones to make the forecast.

 

Yup... GFS has its finger prints on everything lol. 

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