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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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Many times though I could care less what the NAM or GFS show if it doesn't make sense, so in a way...it doesn't sway me too much. But, if the model shows a few red flags and the chance for those to be real are certainly valid...then that's something to think about. Don't forget...when everyone starts going on these knees for the euro...that's when it will crap the bed..lol. It's a dam good model and I always hold it up high...but just remember it's guidance.

the euro is bound to busteroo every so often. But that wont keep me from leaning on it most of the time. Especially when its so hard to beat after it locks on to something. I've never seen such good run to run consistency in any model like the ec in the last month when the chips were down. Pretty amazing, actually. However that doesnt mean it wont have occasional burps (sometimes big) moving forward. And we'll watch for those since 100% model hugging is not a good thing as you well know.
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I threw in the towel after the 2/24 storm.

I put up a winter storm warning on the evening shift on the 23rd for snow that was starting in 8 hours or less as the models seemed to have finally jived (with the euro leading the way). The 00z gfs came in a few hours later and chopped my qpf at least in half (with maybe a third of an inch here). I ended up getting a foot. I am not talking about catching a pattern 4-8 days in advance...i am talking about the real short term where big decisions need to be made. this is where it has continued to fail and embarrasingly so in higher impact situations.

 

It def sh*t the bed with the QPF. Up there it was cold enough, but an awful performance from the 24/00z GFS vs 24/00z Euro. Down here, it was more the QPF as the issue with the GFS. Euro was just too cold. Seems like the GFS has performed worse up there for whatever reason.

 

I will say the GFS op was too warm near 950 for areas like EEN, but we all knew that would happen.  I can't say I have a lot of sample size this winter for storms. The euro tends to nail the biggies...and for the public..that's all they care about. We went with the euro with our aviation clients and because of that..we got a nice kudos from them as they had plenty of time to plan for the blizz.

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the euro is bound to busteroo every so often. But that wont keep me from leaning on it most of the time. Especially when its so hard to beat after it locks on to something. I've never seen such good run to run consistency in any model like the ec in the last month when the chips were down. Pretty amazing, actually. However that doesnt mean it wont have occasional burps (sometimes big) moving forward. And we'll watch for those since 100% model hugging is not a good thing as you well know.

 

The consistency is astonishing sometimes. Ironically...that's what sometimes bites us in the end...but I agree it's the best thing inside 2-3 days which is all I care about, and obviously you guys at the WFO. When the op and ensemble are locked inside 60-72 hrs...you can take that to the bank. Lock it in baby.

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It def sh*t the bed with the QPF. Up there it was cold enough, but an awful performance from the 24/00z GFS vs 24/00z Euro. Down here, it was more the QPF as the issue with the GFS. Euro was just too cold. Seems like the GFS has performed worse up there for whatever reason

I will say the GFS op was too warm near 950 for areas like EEN, but we all knew that would happen. I can't say I have a lot of sample size this winter for storms. The euro tends to nail the biggies...and for the public..that's all they care about. We went with the euro with our aviation clients and because of that..we got a nice kudos from them as they had plenty of time to plan for the blizz.

i think part of it is because the euro tends to handle complex short wave situations better along with handling forcing better on the northern or western edge of systems which is one of the hardest things to forecast. I also think convection screws with the gfs too much. Convection is pretty common in the higher imapct storms.
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Mike, can you guys get the euro ensembles in the grids? I know it probably would be too late for your late aftn issue...but always good to see.

all we get is a ~40km version of the op euro that pops into awips at 19z/07z. No ensemble data at all.
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i think part of it is because the euro tends to handle complex short wave situations better along with handling forcing better on the northern or western edge of systems which is one of the hardest things to forecast. I also think convection screws with the gfs too much. Convection is pretty common in the higher imapct storms.

 

That's a good point. I've noticed the GFS will show features like a nice back bent WF at H7, but the QPF shown makes you scratch your head. We all know models don't handle that well, but the euro will show a nice bump up in QPF where mid level frontogenesis is strong. You can probably chalk that up to the model resolution of 12km. I usually just allow for a nice band where the GFS shows the potential..but it would be nice to have QPF back it up just a tad.

 

I sense your frustration though...lol. I can understand it when warnings have to be issued and the 00z GFS comes in and craps the bed on the warnings. Soon the GFS will be blasting warm fronts into the Gulf of Maine while the euro hangs a little kink in the isobars over ern ma. You know what that means...fog horns.

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all we get is a ~40km version of the op euro that pops into awips at 19z/07z. No ensemble data at all.

 

Can you somehow lobby for that? I know money is tough...but I'm surprised you get the euro op and not the ensembles. Those guys are sickos with their data.

 

I suppose looking at it on the web is ok, but that would be nice to have in AWIPS.

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When you look at the Euro changes in just 12 hours coupled with it's tendency to be too slow this winter/too wound up in ejecting energy off the MA.....

 

If this "trend" that many models picked up on today with the northern S/W being closer to involved...and if the Euro does speed up like we're seeing from all the other guidance today even the misses like the 18z NavGem....the 0z would be interesting

 

We went from basically no interaction to it getting close enough to be interesting, especially considering noted trends this winter.  Now let's see if it sticks.  The bottom map which is the 12z Euro is actually pretty similar to the 18z GFS.  The 12z GFS had that northern energy totally disconnected.  The difference between the 18z GFS and 12z Euro is just that the 12z Euro allowed the ULL to get so far E and S it cannot really be a player.  But we aren't talking about a quantum shift here, we're talking about the 18z GFS vs the 12z Euro being about 200-275 miles due SSE of the GFS position.  In fact if you look closely the spacing between the two systems is identical, it's just that the GFS has them both to the NW a few hundred miles.

 


EDIT: This is the 0z Euro vs the 12z Euro.   You can pull up the 18z GFS yourselves, but you'll see the 18z GFS and 12z Euro have the same configuration aloft, the GFS is just displaced NW which the NCEP stuff has been known to do this winter.

post-3232-0-89999600-1362358365_thumb.jp

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Well I come home, pull up the GFS, and WOAH! didn't see that coming...

 

Although I don't think it's going to happen, verbatim it's rain to mix to snow for here, correct? probably a low end advisory event here?

It's intresting though, and not completly unexpected given the GEFS. The plot thickens...

-skisheep

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Well a nice disco about handling guidance. I hope the GFS is right, but I think it may be just too far north. It's too early to say with 100% confidence...but I don't buy it quite yet. I hope it's not something like the euro bumping a tiny bit NW and the GFS SE like Rollo said. That's pretty mediocre for an outcome.

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Well I come home, pull up the GFS, and WOAH! didn't see that coming...

 

Although I don't think it's going to happen, verbatim it's rain to mix to snow for here, correct? probably a low end advisory event here?

It's intresting though, and not completly unexpected given the GEFS. The plot thickens...

-skisheep

dude, it's the 18z GFS...advisory?  LOL

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Can you somehow lobby for that? I know money is tough...but I'm surprised you get the euro op and not the ensembles. Those guys are sickos with their data.

 

I suppose looking at it on the web is ok, but that would be nice to have in AWIPS.

 

That's why it's so good

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dude, it's the 18z GFS...advisory?  LOL

that's verbatim according to the GFS, not what I think's actually going to happen. Right now, I'm putting the over/under at a coating for here, subject to change based on 0z. One can dream though...... :)

-skisheep

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the euro is bound to busteroo every so often. But that wont keep me from leaning on it most of the time. Especially when its so hard to beat after it locks on to something. I've never seen such good run to run consistency in any model like the ec in the last month when the chips were down. Pretty amazing, actually. However that doesnt mean it wont have occasional burps (sometimes big) moving forward. And we'll watch for those since 100% model hugging is not a good thing as you well know.

 

What about the 40 day progressive pattern prior to the blizzard, when/where the Euro routinely bit on day 4-6D threats, and the GFS scored better on it persistently across that time ??      The Euro carried a mid-range amplitude bias most of that 40 day span, pronounced enough that it had several phantom runs; the GFS kept those same system flat and won that battle.

 

That said, this shouldn't be a progressive pattern.  Blocking periods as you know shorten L/W lengths - which is why I think the Euro is suspect in this case, because it's D4 ridge longitude is suspiciously stretched relative to +1.5PNA/-3NAO couplet.  This isn't saying the GFS is right -   

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Actually ... now that I look, the GFS looks a tad guilty of L/W stretching, too - 

 

Anyway, this could be one of those deals where it heaviest somewhere betwixt DCA-PHL, but still gets up to southern VT/NH and cuts there...   Megal. Blizz. did that I think -

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Absolutely the sun angle plays into events at this time of year.  Sun angle doesn't prohibit huge things from occuring (note April Fool's Day storm and Oct 2011), but it certainly inhibits them thus putting greater need for other parameters to work out very well.  Thus, while you can get some great spring storms, they are the rarity rather than the norm.

Lol.. 10/30 sun angle is like mid February.

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