Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period

[moneypitmike]

I would think that even if this comes in further north as modeled, the sun angle and air temps will have significant impact on what accumulations might take place. 

 

Regardless, looks like we have something to watch, even if the odds are still it's going to be meh for most.

[free_man]

  So much for that (though I never believed it)

Not me man, you guys can do the 75 page lead-up to the event.  I'll jump in when we get inside of 48 hours and it's either a threat, a rainer (for me) or potentially impacting Bermuda with clouds and lousy weather. 

[Arnold214]

Well should be a fun two days of model watching. Certainly a bit of an eyebrow raiser here.

I need the op euro to make a pretty big jump tonight with 00z run or else chances are even more remote than they are now.

[Bostonseminole]

Here's another myth, please do not pin this

agree

[codfishsnowman]

i know its off topic but remember the cartoon with the three students at their desks for the euro, gfs and nam that was posted back during the blizzard or just before? it was hilarious, can someone please repost that?

 

its just so funny.

[N. OF PIKE]

I would think that even if this comes in further north as modeled, the sun angle and air temps will have significant impact on what accumulations might take place. 

 

Regardless, looks like we have something to watch, even if the odds are still it's going to be meh for most.

yup this has the (if it comes north ) worcester to NW hills of Ri look with hopefully this pounding the best at nite so CP folks have a shot at a few inches of slop. a few inches of slop is highly underrated in my book.

[Ginx snewx]

You want to see something wild, check out the Meteogram for CHh , 3 inches QPF, 5 inches of snow, winds gusting to 75, heavy sleet, ya this would not be good. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=kchh

[N. OF PIKE]

I need the op euro to make a pretty big jump tonight with 00z run or else chances are even more remote than they are now.

are you saying for gyx or boston as well. i would think if 0z euro ens stay around .5 where they were....then they could end up bumpin a bit tommorrow noon ? and this could be solid for E SNE and S SNE in particular. i.e SE sne really doesn't need a bump n just to stay the course WRT euro ens.

[powderfreak]

Well should be a fun two days of model watching. Certainly a bit of an eyebrow raiser here.

 

Definitely an eyebrow raiser... you had to guess though that with a system that large off the east coast that there are still going to be some weenie runs regardless of what actually ends up happening.  Brief wobbles and slightly different perturbations should create some head shaking solutions while other runs are non-events.  Will just have to see which ones we see more of, lol.

[CoastalWx]

I need the op euro to make a pretty big jump tonight with 00z run or else chances are even more remote than they are now.

 

It's tough to buy the 18z op or GEFS, but like Will said..probably some weenie precip with weak isentropic lift and onshore flow. I could see the Cape getting brushed with the band to the south as even the euro kisses the Cape with that.

 

We'll see what 00z does. I don't think it will take a miracle to make it a bit more interesting down here with such a massive ULL.

[alex]

There's a lot of talk of how the March sun angle will make big snowstorms difficult... but is that really true? In my 15 years in Boston I remember plenty of good March snowstorms when you'd think it's midwinter, and even today, after a partly sunny morning, it clouded up and started flurrying in the middle of the day. Why so much negativity towards March (other than the several clunkers we've had)... is there any scientific truth to it? 

 

 

 

I would think that even if this comes in further north as modeled, the sun angle and air temps will have significant impact on what accumulations might take place. 

 

Regardless, looks like we have something to watch, even if the odds are still it's going to be meh for most.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

There's a lot of talk of how the March sun angle will make big snowstorms difficult... but is that really true? In my 15 years in Boston I remember plenty of good March snowstorms when you'd think it's midwinter, and even today, after a partly sunny morning, it clouded up and started flurrying in the middle of the day. Why so much negativity towards March (other than the several clunkers we've had)... is there any scientific truth to it? 

 

People are jaded from the past few years of March not flexing it's winter muscle.  Sun angle matters for light precip. if it's ripping snow's gonna' pile up.  Just ask April 1st 1997.

[Typhoon Tip]

Welp, whatever happens I doubt it will look like the 12z Euro operational version.   Ridge wave length is too long at 96, spanning the entire nation and then some.  The wave lengths are shorter during block pattern types and why the Euro is stretching the L/W length so drastically doesn't appear supported.   

[Arnold214]

It's tough to buy the 18z op or GEFS, but like Will said..probably some weenie precip with weak isentropic lift and onshore flow. I could see the Cape getting brushed with the band to the south as even the euro kisses the Cape with that.

We'll see what 00z does. I don't think it will take a miracle to make it a bit more interesting down here with such a massive ULL.

i havent been able to look at temp profiles, etc. but even if substantial qpf does indeed get to the south coast, would it be snow?

[Damage In Tolland]

This is why we said it's March//not Jan..and climo argues for a shift north. We had a feeling on this... Some were telling us we were hallucinating..but we knew better to stay the course..All that said..we don't like the GFS

[CoastalWx]

i havent been able to look at temp profiles, etc. but even if substantial qpf does indeed get to the south coast, would it be snow?

 

It looked tough below 950mb, but it looked like it could wetbulb to 32-33 if it comes down hard enough. But you and I both know 0.2" every 6hrs won't cut it on the coast.

[Arnold214]

It looked tough below 950mb, but it looked like it could wetbulb to 32-33 if it comes down hard enough. But you and I both know 0.2" every 6hrs won't cut it on the coast.

With deep layer easterly flow like that, I would think you would have to get the meat of the mesoscale banding to make it real good.

[Damage In Tolland]

I absolutely love it that great mets like Ekster just bash the GFS. It's one thing for weenies to do it..but when we get well known mets doing it...that means something..and hopefully raises some eyebrows to the GFS crew..here and elsewhere.

[Arnold214]

I absolutely love it that great mets like Ekster just bash the GFS. It's one thing for weenies to do it..but when we get well known mets doing it...that means something..and hopefully raises some eyebrows to the GFS crew..here and elsewhere.

well, i try not to be a modelologist. I like to look at everything objectively. However I have a job to do and important decisions to make at times...especially this past Feb up here. When the GFS fails time after time when the chips are down in the short term, what am I supposed to say? Something is not right with it.

[CoastalWx]

With deep layer easterly flow like that, I would think you would have to get the meat of the mesoscale banding to make it real good.

 

It actually looked like it advected in some cooler air aloft from 950-850, but yeah...you're going to need dynamics without a cold low level boundary layer. If you took the GFS verbatim, BOS started out as a mix before going to snow, but something like the euro would likely be just a little rasn type mix. Maybe some light snow for Will and Kevin. It would be plenty cold to get snow if we did have the dynamics. 950 stays below 0C.

[moneypitmike]

There's a lot of talk of how the March sun angle will make big snowstorms difficult... but is that really true? In my 15 years in Boston I remember plenty of good March snowstorms when you'd think it's midwinter, and even today, after a partly sunny morning, it clouded up and started flurrying in the middle of the day. Why so much negativity towards March (other than the several clunkers we've had)... is there any scientific truth to it? 

 

Absolutely the sun angle plays into events at this time of year.  Sun angle doesn't prohibit huge things from occuring (note April Fool's Day storm and Oct 2011), but it certainly inhibits them thus putting greater need for other parameters to work out very well.  Thus, while you can get some great spring storms, they are the rarity rather than the norm.

[CoastalWx]

I don't think the GFS has been that terrible down here. It flopped around a bit like a weenie with the blizzard, but also latched onto the trend of keeping that a little more progressive here. So if you weighted the forecast to the euro but kept the GFS in mind...a dam good call right there. The euro also was too cold last week. Kevin quickly forgets that. Like Mike said, you have to understand how to use guidance and blend it in.

[Damage In Tolland]

well, i try not to be a modelologist. I like to look at everything objectively. However I have a job to do and important decisions to make at times...especially this past Feb up here. When the GFS fails time after time when the chips are down in the short term, what am I supposed to say? Something is not right with it.

Yeah there's no doubt about it....one of the problems IMO is the GFS has had kind of a dumbing down of the field. There were/are so many rip and readers with all the crappy products it spits out..that all those folks would do was to use it/MOS/MAV..whatever. 

 

I've made the point so many times and I know you've all heard me..but it just adds confusion..It doesn't help solve the forecast..it just adds more confusion..RE: the blizzard..we still had folks being "concerned" it was right ..even up to like 12-18 hours prior to the first flakes falling..And now here we are again..Most other guidance says brush or light snows..and it's dumping a major winter storm on all of SNE..

 

Maybe it has it's uses..if it does..I'd like someone to point them out for us

[CoastalWx]

The NAM on the other hand..I want to use it as a diaper for my son.

[CTWeatherFreak]

Yeah there's no doubt about it....one of the problems IMO is the GFS has had kind of a dumbing down of the field. There were/are so many rip and readers with all the crappy products it spits out..that all those folks would do was to use it/MOS/MAV..whatever. 

 

I've made the point so many times and I know you've all heard me..but it just adds confusion..It doesn't help solve the forecast..it just adds more confusion..RE: the blizzard..we still had folks being "concerned" it was right ..even up to like 12-18 hours prior to the first flakes falling..And now here we are again..Most other guidance says brush or light snows..and it's dumping a major winter storm on all of SNE..

 

Maybe it has it's uses..if it does..I'd like someone to point them out for us

 

DT just ripped me a new one eariler, just for mentioning the 18z gfs!  

[Damage In Tolland]

I don't think the GFS has been that terrible down here. It flopped around a bit like a weenie with the blizzard, but also latched onto the trend of keeping that a little more progressive here. So if you weighted the forecast to the euro but kept the GFS in mind...a dam good call right there. The euro also was too cold last week. Kevin quickly forgets that. Like Mike said, you have to understand how to use guidance and blend it in.

I agree the Euro has blown dongs a few times this winter. It's not perfect..but the Euro is still Jessica Simpson and the GFS is still  Roseanne Barr

[Arnold214]

I don't think the GFS has been that terrible down here. It flopped around a bit like a weenie with the blizzard, but also latched onto the trend of keeping that a little more progressive here. So if you weighted the forecast to the euro but kept the GFS in mind...a dam good call right there. The euro also was too cold last week. Kevin quickly forgets that. Like Mike said, you have to understand how to use guidance and blend it in.

I threw in the towel after the 2/24 storm.

I put up a winter storm warning on the evening shift on the 23rd for snow that was starting in 8 hours or less as the models seemed to have finally jived (with the euro leading the way). The 00z gfs came in a few hours later and chopped my qpf at least in half (with maybe a third of an inch here). I ended up getting a foot. I am not talking about catching a pattern 4-8 days in advance...i am talking about the real short term where big decisions need to be made. this is where it has continued to fail and embarrasingly so in higher impact situations.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

I don't think the GFS has been that terrible down here. It flopped around a bit like a weenie with the blizzard, but also latched onto the trend of keeping that a little more progressive here. So if you weighted the forecast to the euro but kept the GFS in mind...a dam good call right there. The euro also was too cold last week. Kevin quickly forgets that. Like Mike said, you have to understand how to use guidance and blend it in.

 

Ironically the GFS was too light on QPF for that event which was one of the big beefs.  For the 3-5 scrapers and the surprise middle of the night .4/4" event that the Euro utterly and completely missed at even 6 hours lead the GFS/NAM were overdone, but at least signaling an event would occur.  So let's see how this rolls later.

 

But I agree with everything, it's but one piece of guidance.  The NAEFS/NavyGEM did not budge NW at all.  Not sure the RGEM did either, but it does look like it was preparing to do the loop the GFS did, hard to tell.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Welp, whatever happens I doubt it will look like the 12z Euro operational version.   Ridge wave length is too long at 96, spanning the entire nation and then some.  The wave lengths are shorter during block pattern types and why the Euro is stretching the L/W length so drastically doesn't appear supported.   

 

Yes, this is also a very valid point and one of the many reasons I expect it to change tonight.

[CoastalWx]

I agree the Euro has blown dongs a few times this winter. It's not perfect..but the Euro is still Jessica Simpson and the GFS is still  Roseanne Barr

 

Many times though I could care less what the NAM or GFS show if it doesn't make sense, so in a way...it doesn't sway me too much. But, if the model shows a few red flags and the chance for those to be real are certainly valid...then that's something to think about.  Don't forget...when everyone starts going on these knees for the euro...that's when it will crap the bed..lol.  It's a dam good model and I always hold it up high...but just remember it's guidance.