Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 So do we start with 8-14" and then raise amounts if we need to? 8-14cm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I will check back in tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 That's true as well, but the Euro wasn't exactly all over it at 4+ days either, if I recall correctly. 8 hours before we got .4" and 4" of snow a few weeks back the Euro gave us like .08". It's been too suppressed so many times this winter I cannot remember with the cape scrappers. Probably an enormous red flag that the Euro ENS are so much wetter than the Euro OP, JMHO. I guess it's possible that the GFS could hit one out of nowhere. But that really doesn't elevate my level of trust with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 it's killed it up here in my cwa this year...thats for sure. Yea I guess it depends where you live. Here in Philly there was a storm (I forget the date) where the EURO kept giving me snow even the 12z run while the storm was going on yet I didn't get squat. It's not an unflappable model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 If it wasn't for the ensembles being a little juiced..even the euro ensembles, I probably would toss. I dunno....tough to really buy that solution though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 wed noon to thur pm greater then- 4 s.d e'rly 850 inflow from u to me on 12z gfs wx4cast and now oceanstwx post these 850 inflow charts occasionally. i would like to hear oceanstwx's thoughts as well wrt to 850 inflow increasing and the block potentially getting a bit more favorable for this to squirt n a bit I generally like the area on the nose of those H8 anomalies for the heaviest QPF. Now the 12z GEFS certainly argues for the placement of precip farther north based on that strong easterly inflow, however the apex is still more like central NJ. Deep layer easterly flow will be interesting to see how organized the weenie precip will be north of the low. SREF at this range is already hinting at orographic enhancement to the QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yea I guess it depends where you live. Here in Philly there was a storm (I forget the date) where the EURO kept giving me snow even the 12z run while the storm was going on yet I didn't get squat. It's not an unflappable model. No model is unflappable. You cannot expect them to be. They're merely guidance. However you have to weed through stuff and go with what you think has the best chance to win. Overall, the GFS performance has been degraded especially when it comes to big storms and complex shortwave situations. Overall the euro has won on that front in a big way so far here this winter. And there are many sound reasons for that. Will it bust again? Of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS was a miss to the right like 24 hours out. No comparison in that storm at all between ECM and GFS. That's the wrong storm to use as an example of EURO fail. I wasn't saying it failed, I was pointing out it was yet again too far south at this range. That's what the OP Euro has done essentially all winter, sometimes even inside of 12 hours. It really had nothing to do with the GFS (my comment) because as I said the NCEP guidance has in every single case been too far NW. The OP Euro plods slowly NW while the GFS/NAM usually vastly overshoot the eventual middle ground only to have to correct back. The ? in this case will be which side of the compromise is right. Pretty much every time we're convinced we should toss a model on a tangent (NAM last storm) it ends up being more right than wrong. The Euro ENS are wrapped up quite a bit more, but still WAY SE. SO, the NCEP stuff has to be taken with a tremendous grain of salt until post 0z. The thing that has me more interested is the movement the OP Euro made aloft with the northern s/w. No model has been on a tear this winter, so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 wed noon to thur pm greater then- 4 s.d e'rly 850 inflow from u to me on 12z gfs wx4cast and now oceanstwx post these 850 inflow charts occasionally. i would like to hear oceanstwx's thoughts as well wrt to 850 inflow increasing and the block potentially getting a bit more favorable for this to squirt n a bit It's not just 850 inflow though, it's the block relaxation, the -250u wind at -3 Sds which indicates very slow motion or a stall, it's the PWAts, it's 850 moisture flux, 5h position, ULL energy diving in. So many things to look at. Huge circulation but nothing is cast in stone. Today has shown what could happen . Right now I would say CC is the place that has the biggest impact Euro wise but the GEFS have got to be shown some respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing the 18z GFS runs are always at least entertaining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Getting dusting #2 here from that pesky ULL with light snow/flurries, 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Do I want the euro to be wrong? Hell ya. Do I think it will come to this off gfs run? No. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I generally like the area on the nose of those H8 anomalies for the heaviest QPF. Now the 12z GEFS certainly argues for the placement of precip farther north based on that strong easterly inflow, however the apex is still more like central NJ. Deep layer easterly flow will be interesting to see how organized the weenie precip will be north of the low. SREF at this range is already hinting at orographic enhancement to the QPF. 18z gfs 3z or so to 18z on thurs those max 850 inflow s-d are -4 or so right around BOS. the nose on 18z looks like sandy hook over to near elbow of cape cod as time goes by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro ensembles bringing better QPF further north has be semi-interested in some sort of easterly flow upslope event for my BY (heck even the OP Euro has had weenie qpf for several runs out of that)...but I'm certainly not buying a 18z GFS solution at this point. I also have to agree with Arnold's assertion about the GFS in big storms....it seems to choke so bad in them. Given we are still 3-4 days out for us on this, I can envision the Euro swooping in and nailing the event still inside of 60-72 hours by jumping way NW next run and then holding steady while the GFS starts to pound dendrite and then ultimately comes back SE...but we are getting awfully short on time for that. My guess at this point is a scraper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Since we have virtually no hope, I hope the DC guys get crushed. I'm not a vindictive type of person. And it's always fun to watch a major city get hit hard. And rightfully so. GFS is just a crushing storm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 One thing the 18z GFS runs are always at least entertainingAlways , myth? anecdotal ? That's what we are told but our eyes do not lie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's not just 850 inflow though, it's the block relaxation, the -250u wind at -3 Sds which indicates very slow motion or a stall, it's the PWAts, it's 850 moisture flux, 5h position, ULL energy diving in. So many things to look at. Huge circulation but nothing is cast in stone. Today has shown what could happen . Right now I would say CC is the place that has the biggest impact Euro wise but the GEFS have got to be shown some respect. i think andy wx4cast use to post those...and again oceanstwx did for the blizzard....the 250 S.D winds wrt to the stall u mentioned. that was actually something i stupidly confuse sometimes... yes -3+ SD ESE'rly going to East inflow @ 250 was something i remember andy saying anythng greater than -2.5 out of the E and it's gonna be sloooooooow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Do I want the euro to be wrong? Hell ya. Do I think it will come to this off gfs run? No. Just my 2 cents. It's really been a rough winter for american guidance. The GFS has been atrocious, the SREFs unusable, and it's a miracle if the NAM can get basic synoptics right with a 24 hour forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's really been a rough winter for american guidance. The GFS has been atrocious, the SREFs unusable, and it's a miracle if the NAM can get basic synoptics right with a 24 hour forecast. The GFS has always been bad for east coast storms....IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Since we have virtually no hope, I hope the DC guys get crushed. I'm not a vindictive type of person. And it's always fun to watch a major city get hit hard. if the Ravens hadnt beat the Pats or won the Superbowl id feel the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 i think andy wx4cast use to post those...and again oceanstwx did for the blizzard....the 250 S.D winds wrt to the stall u mentioned. that was actually something i stupidly confuse sometimes... yes -3+ SD ESE'rly going to East inflow @ 250 was something i remember andy saying anythng greater than -2.5 out of the E and it's gonna be sloooooooow Anytime you are reversing the prevailing flow at jet level you are going to get a slow system overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Holy winds and waves, Scituate would take a severe pounding even if QPF is minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The GFS has always been bad for east coast storms....IMO The Euro has been better but I feel like this winter has been particularly bad for the entire suite of US guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's really been a rough winter for american guidance. The GFS has been atrocious, the SREFs unusable, and it's a miracle if the NAM can get basic synoptics right with a 24 hour forecast.the nam has been better than the gfs in the 24 hour time frame and had complimented the euro at times at very close range...but that doesnt make watch and warning decision making any easier. Riding the euro has basically been the way to go if you want to get the forecast close within 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capecod04 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Holy winds and waves, Scituate would take a severe pounding even if QPF is minimal.north trend is our friend. QPF is not that minimal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Holy winds and waves, Scituate would take a severe pounding even if QPF is minimal. I've got 12-15 footers and near marginal gales at this range already for the Friday morning tide. One thing that anomalous easterly flow tells me is that we're going to build quite the sea state over the course of several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Always , myth? anecdotal ? That's what we are told but our eyes do not lie. Last week I remember you calling before 18z gfs runs that they would come in amped in regards to that cp Rainer.... ie not to worry it was just the 18z. As you always say ride the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 the nam has been better than the gfs in the 24 hour time frame and had complimented the euro at times at very close range...but that doesnt make watch and warning decision making any easier. Riding the euro has basically been the way to go if you want to get the forecast close within 3 days.and i am not a modelologist by any means. I love dissecting the atmosphere. However you have to start somewhere...preferably with something reasonable and with some semblance of consistency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I hate to sound like Kevin when it comes to the GFS, but that thing has become unusable when the chips are down. Yeah and I don't want to imply that I'm buying into it. The 0z run tonight should be pretty telling as either the GFS/NAM will demonstrate that these were their NW outlier runs, or the other guidance comes towards it. My gut is the OP Euro in particular is probably way too far south on the turn. How much it matters who knows we'll see tonight. I was more pointing out that the Euro has really been slow/behind the NCEP guidance in moving stuff north that ended up hitting the Cape to one degree or another, and in the end was too far south with your blizzard too (although it wasn't alone) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 For those gunning down the GFS (and I've seen it a bit) as well as those gunning down the 18z - it's important to remember that it's not a regurgitated offshoot of data. It's not an 'off run' Beyond that - If you look at the 0z GFS from last night, and the 6z from this morning - then add 12 hours and look at the current radar (obviously subtracting the obligatory 5 hours) - the GFS is outperforming the Euro, and quite well I might add. The Euro may appear to have a better handle on the confluence, but the GFS seems to have a better grasp on the system from a synoptic standpoint. Now, I'm not going to shoot my mouth off and say to trust the clown maps, that'd be dumb. What I will say is to USE those maps as a concept of how tight the gradient may be. I'm still thinking the intensification happens faster than the Euro, but a touch slower than the GFS. I'm not giving the GFS all my lovin' but it certainly deserves some respect for how its been handled. Don't root for each model run, take some initiative and gloss over what the surface and current 850s were modeled to be, and you be the judge. BOOM GOES THE DYNAMITE! lol Seems to think the gfs has a good handle on the system so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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