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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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No slapping weenies yet, very precarious setup still and not a lot of support aside from its own recent ensemble runs and some useless SREF members.

 

Certainly interesting and a plausible evolution for how it could involve the northern stream albeit it does so in what looks to me,  a very unusual way.

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It would be a far bigger fail than one week ago....one week ago it had a pretty bad fail on the thermal profile, but this would be a complete synoptic scale fail.

 

Way too early to be spiking footballs though....pretty huge model war.

 

Yeah I know, and as I've said a couple of times today the way the models have been this winter we can absolutely for certain expect a run or two of NCEP guidance that is WAY too far NW.  What we will figure out tonight at 0z is whether or not we're dealing with a brush job or a crush job.

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Biggest phail of the Euro since the one a week ago?

Feb 2010 was one of the storms that made me truly keep an eye on the GFS ensembles. All the models were OTS on 12z like 48-60hrs out. Then again at 18z... However the 18z GFS ensembles were showing a pretty big storm. Everyone wrote it off, however the 00z NAM started that night by showing a mega storm. All models slowly trended towards it and NYC got a big snowstorm.

 

I always keep an eye on individual GFS models for trends withing 72hrs because of that storm.

 

It's funny how it skips over Philadelphia though. You watch I'll end up making a road trip to Boston instead of VA by tomorrow night lol. 

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GFS... It is awful with big storms. Just putrid. Doesnt matter which run of the day it is. Embarrasing.

 

EURO hasn't exactly been killing it either this year. The early feb blizzard was the one storm that it owned all the models on, but besides that it hasn't been special at this range IMO. 

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It looks like at hr 66 not only is there weenie vorticity being entrained from near Toronto, but it's digging a little more on the backside of this ULL which acts to build heights a bit. There isn't a huge difference at first glance, but these little nuances mean everything.

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Pickles , 12/19/09 redeaux? Here is the link http://eyewall.met.psu.edu/rich/NAM/

wed noon to thur pm greater then- 4 s.d   e'rly 850 inflow from u to me on 12z gfs

 

wx4cast and now oceanstwx  post these 850 inflow charts occasionally. i would like to hear oceanstwx's thoughts as well wrt to 850 inflow increasing and the block potentially getting a bit more favorable for this to squirt n a bit

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EURO hasn't exactly been killing it either this year. The early feb blizzard was the one storm that it owned all the models on, but besides that it hasn't been special at this range IMO.

it's killed it up here in my cwa this year...thats for sure.
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GFS is also phasing in a bit of the lakes energy in addition to the retrograde stuff from NNE.

 

Animated GIFS still aren't working, but the changes on the OP Euro in that region 100-112 vs 112/124 last run are pretty striking.  It too was leading towards much more interaction, or close to it this run.  So....we shall see the truth probably is in the middle somewhere.

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At this time range on the blizzard wasn't it mostly still NBD up there? Certainly nowhere near what happened I thought as it had the low stalling SE of Ack instead of where it did much further NE.

And the GFS never had a huge storm here even when it was starting.
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At this time range on the blizzard wasn't it mostly still NBD up there?  Certainly nowhere near what happened I thought as it had the low stalling SE of Ack instead of where it did much further NE.

 

The GFS was a miss to the right like 24 hours out.  No comparison in that storm at all between ECM and GFS.  That's the wrong storm to use as an example of EURO fail.

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And the GFS never had a huge storm here even when it was starting.

 

That's true as well, but the Euro wasn't exactly all over it at 4+ days either, if I recall correctly.

 

8 hours before we got .4" and 4" of snow a few weeks back the Euro gave us like .08".   It's been too suppressed so many times this winter I cannot remember with the cape scrappers.  Probably an enormous red flag that the Euro ENS are so much wetter than the Euro OP, JMHO.

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The GFS was a miss to the right like 24 hours out. No comparison in that storm at all between ECM and GFS. That's the wrong storm to use as an example of EURO fail.

Especially since the euro became rocksteady for nine runs in a row. While everything else was flopping around like a fish.
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