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Early March threats - Mar 1st-8th Period


free_man

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I know models are better than 2005 but. I respect Dr Hart's and West Junkers papers and discussions of -850 inflow and future model corrections. Watching this closely.

 

what charts you use for 850 inflow strength or S.D from normal

 

do you think your area to bos NW burbs can pull somethin here

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Look how much of that vorticity from Maine and NNE gets sucked back into NY State and everntually phased in after about 72 hours....I think that really helps push this whole thing north after it has exited the mid-atlantic region.

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Really fascinating loop, from 72-90hrs. Basically there is an area of really strong vorticity that is rotating around the ULL. It is timed right on this run and almost pushes the storm more North then East. The EURO has this energy in the SW quadrant which is why it pushes it SE. 

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Biggest phail of the Euro since the one a week ago?

 

 

It would be a far bigger fail than one week ago....one week ago it had a pretty bad fail on the thermal profile, but this would be a complete synoptic scale fail.

 

Way too early to be spiking footballs though....pretty huge model war.

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