joey2002 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 It's more of a shade thing than elevation here because I am on a plateau here at about 800' and shaded areas are loaded with snow while open fields are grass. Valley Falls/Bolton Lake areas have 100% snowcover that is 6-12" deep especially in the forested areas. South of Route 44 snowcover is sparse. Yeah it's all about trees/shade, especially this time of year. Snow is mostly gone in open areas around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL at the SLP field on that map you posted, Scott. It looks like a 4 leaf clover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL at the SLP field on that map you posted, Scott. It looks like a 4 leaf clover. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL at the SLP field on that map you posted, Scott. It looks like a 4 leaf clover. I know pretty funny. I kept mentioning Sunday as when I figured it was time to pay attention to the models for us, was more meaning the 0z run tonight, so although all of this is interesting.....0z will likely either ramp this up to a legitimate/significant threat for at least some of us, or back it down. I just look at the Euro and figure it's the same old story with it this year at this range. But we also have the issue of the GFS/GEFS coming in over amped at times just not usually at this range during a move. We'll see. JMA has also been decent in signaling threats when the others were woefully too suppressed. Best course of action would be to favor a light event along the coast, perhaps light to moderate along the immediate south and southeast coasts. To me I'd think it's mainly rain right on the coast for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 LOL at the SLP field on that map you posted, Scott. It looks like a 4 leaf clover. St Pattys day storm a few weeks early lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 JMA has also been decent in signaling threats when the others were woefully too suppressed. JMA seems to make virtually every storm look like a threat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Analog guidance potential snow impact is reasonable in my opinion, except for the fact that accumulating snow amounts are generously far north into NY/New England. Mid-Atlantic region clearly favored for a pretty good March snow event: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Fwiw NAM sim radar engulfing LI now at 84. Would be great if this evolves into something more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Fwiw NAM sim radar engulfing LI now at 84. Would be great if this evolves into something more interesting. Will see what 18z DGEX shows. I know it's laughed at, but I still think it's worth reviewing for the first few panels. All in all, it's another form of guidance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Definitely weenie potential on the euro ensembles after next week. Does it tickle it out south of us instead of cut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Does it tickle it out south of us instead of cut? You mean this week coming up? Yeah it tickles SE, but I think Dendrite said 0.5" line gets to GON-LWM. But again...this may be long and drawn on weenie QPF that if snow...won't add up to much unless it falls steadily or at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 You mean this week coming up? Yeah it tickles SE, but I think Dendrite said 0.5" line gets to GON-LWM. But again...this may be long and drawn on weenie QPF that if snow...won't add up to much unless it falls steadily or at night. No I meant the storm around the 11th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Will see what 18z DGEX shows. I know it's laughed at, but I still think it's worth reviewing for the first few panels. All in all, it's another form of guidance...got to look at it all this far out. Phil mentioned yesterday one wobble on 5h and it's a NE heading rather than ene. My biggest red flags are Ens continuing to weaken -sd block and strengthen -850 inflow. Euro though...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yes it def helps to not get torching sunlight no matter what the elevation..but even the shaded areas in the valley are mostly melted out..so it's a combo of both. Sounds like you've been hiking over at Valley Falls. I grew up very near there. I haven't been hiking there since last October, but I did some shopping in Manchester yesterday and drove back home via exit 66 and valley Falls Road to Hatch Hill Road. Along that route one goes from zero snowcover at exit 66 to full snowcover at Bolton Lake with about a 500' gain in elevation. Bolton lake is still nearly 100% frozen and mostly snowcovered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 No I meant the storm around the 11th Oh, it looks like a SWFE, but the cold seems marginal at best. Might end up being a cold rain..but I suppose it is early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Scotteroo is this a rainer on the cp really anyway or no accum snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Fwiw NAM sim radar engulfing LI now at 84. Would be great if this evolves into something more interesting. I think you're getting something. I could see this getting as far north as the Pike, at least accumulating, maybe even Advisory snows down in S.CT if the timing happens at night? Should be fun to watch over the next couple days. EURO has had some farts lately, so its not necessarily gospel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Scotteroo is this a rainer on the cp really anyway or no accum snow It all depends on how hard it comes down. Very light precip rates mean 36F and rain during the day..maybe a little snow at night. But, the GEFS might imply more snow. Certainly cold enough aloft, but dynamics would drive ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 got to look at it all this far out. Phil mentioned yesterday one wobble on 5h and it's a NE heading rather than ene. My biggest red flags are Ens continuing to weaken -sd block and strengthen -850 inflow. Euro though...... I feel like that's the ticket right there. I don't know why, but I have this feeling that models often over-estimate blocking in the day 3-5 range, which then leads to the slight ticks north in a lot of storms. For whatever reason, storms in general on models seem to tick north as you approach hour zero, as opposed to the other way around, especially if they continue to show a strong bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 This useless light snow has been sticking here all day with the March sun peeking through at times. Of course its only 25 degrees. About a half inch to show for it. It all depends on how hard it comes down. Very light precip rates mean 36F and rain during the day..maybe a little snow at night. But, the GEFS might imply more snow. Certainly cold enough aloft, but dynamics would drive ptype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 The NWS has a 30% chance for snow here on wednesday, but with a forecast high of 40F and a high sun angle it looks like it would be window dressing type snowfall. Currently here we have lowering clouds with snow flurries and it's 29F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 GFS has ticked north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Many are waiting for Mother Euro to come north before getting on the bus. And rightfully so. GFS is just a crushing storm for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 And rightfully so. GFS is just a crushing storm for DC so happy for Matt and Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 so happy for Matt and Ian Yeah I am too. They deserve a good one. It would be nice to get all of 95 in on the action. This is worth watching. Ensembles have me worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Wow... GFS is a decent snowstorm here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 And rightfully so. GFS is just a crushing storm for DC Meh. We'll see how it does in this storm. More interaction this run than the last. Northern s/w is trying hard to get in the mix while the main ULL is a little faster. Like I said all winter the euro seems to be too slow/too far SW with these monsters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted March 3, 2013 Author Share Posted March 3, 2013 I wouldn't start throwing around the 'grats quite yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Blizzard conditions too lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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